Member Info for timsy66

So less than 24 hours to go. Tension is in the air! I wonder how the directors are feeling right now... ;-)
Presumably we would have already heard if they’d got enough shares to do the takeover. So I imagine they’re feeling rather glum as they won’t be taking their company private... (not gloating, honest). Or will they pull something out of the hat last minute?
So how will the SP react tomorrow pm if it doesn’t go through, one wonders. Dive on disappointment, or rally on relief... ? My money is on the latter...

It does seem a very cackhanded way to try and buy out the company. They should make an offer that enough shareholders won’t be able to refuse, something like 20% above current share. Instead, they are just steeling everyone’s resolve, meanwhile the share price is edging up, and the premium that they’re eventually going to have to pay if they want to take full ownership keeps increasing. Are they even listening to their advisors? Surely their advisers aren’t advising this is a sensible strategy?

It’s a very good article, and presents a strong argument for rejecting the bid. As mentioned several times before on the chat, it seems like a classic case of the main shareholders trying to bully the little guys into selling up. Don’t do it! The fundamentals are great, valuations are low on many metrics, copper is only going one way and that’s up. I’m more bullish than ever. This goes to £10+ in my view. Just have to be patient and let this saga play out. GLA

Given there is effectively a floor price of 780p, there’s ~ 5% downside risk from current spot price. On the upside, there’s a favourable macro environment, an ongoing switch from growth into value, and a generally inflationary commodity outlook. Considering the above, and the current dip in metal prices, there seems to be a decent short term opportunity for this share - very limited downside risk, but reasonable probability of either increased bid or resumption of uptrend in commodity prices, or both.

Great day to be a KAZ shareholder, even better day to be a Tesla stock holder (particularly if you're called Elon Musk).Up 20% at the open. Sadly I sold my TSLA shares the other week (woe is me).
Still disproportionately long on KAZ, but hoping for a good run from now till year end #GLA

I'm guessing we're at or very near an all time low now, not sure exactly the equivalent in old money since the capital reorganisation. I do know it's lower than the open offer call price of 4.5p I doubled up at :-( What the hell happened in the last 2-3 trading sessions where it rocketed like a demon, then plummeted back down to a new low? I'm tempted to buy more and average down (again), but since I have no idea whats going on, common sense probably says just write off the investment and hope for a brighter day.

Some explanation for recent falls (taken from Yahoo finance) - Investors offloaded shares in Man Group as worries grew that markets had turned against the hedge fund business and its most profitable trades were starting to collapse. The FTSE 250 group slid 10.6p, or 5.8pc, to 172.9p, adding to Monday’s 5.5pc drop, amid mouting speculation that its computer-driven AHL fund had been hit by the recent rally in oil and the sell-off in the dollar. “Man’s share price and the net asset value of AHL are still almost perfectly correlated,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Peter Lenardos. Based on AHL’s first quarter performance, “the market believes that AHL is short oil and long the dollar. And what has happened is a lot of those trades are unwinding.”

Agreed. I'd be surprised if there were major withdrawals though. There has been a steady increase of FUM since AHL started to stabilise about a year ago, and AHL's performance was excellent last year, and not too bad this year (up 3.3% since Jan), so I see no reason why funds would pull their money out. But if there were, it would explain a downward turn in the price for sure (begs the question - how do they know??). I shall hold off hitting the BUY button for now and see how the next couple of days pan out, will be interesting for sure!

I'm itching to buy some more of this. A 10% fall in a day seems v over the top, on the back of no substantive news. I know a few shareholders are apparently going to give the board a hard time over OTT remuneration (fair enough), but I don't see why this should cause the price to fall quite so fast. AHL had a bad week last week but still only down a touch on the month. Obv we wait to see the numbers on Friday, and make a call then. EMG has always given us long-standing shareholders a run for our money. Makes for an entertaining chat room at least!

So EMG results on May 8th. Share price drops 5% this afternoon for no apparent reason. Suggests insider knowledge, perhaps?

Actually lets not forget Espírito Santo (who?) either.. slightly less wrong than Numis. http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/m/man-group-ordinary-3-37-us-cents/broker-forecasts

Nice to see all the brokers gradually coming to their senses and making their upgrades to their SP forecasts. Us long-suffering shareholders knew all along, right? There's still one broker who hasn't changed their forecast... Numis. Their analyst has been consistently negative on EMG for as long as I've been reading these pages. In November (by which time the SP was already well on the road to recovery), he reiterated its sell rating and moderately increased the target price from 75p to to 77p. How are you left, Mr McCann??? http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AEMG.L&it=le&action=detail&id=11410668

bet whoever sold it at 108p at the low last month is feeling a bit of a muppet

21.4% up on the YTD

Glad as I am to see the move today, it just goes to show how behind the curve private investors are when it comes to getting access to information. I've not seen any obvious reason for the push higher today (CS uprating can't hurt, but can't account for 5% rally, surely, unless it forced a load of short covering). The last time we had big moves was just before the announcement of Man;s last set of figures which despite being great, saw the share price fall. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories banded around on here, but I do accept that as private investors, we are the last ones to hear of any market-moving information. Lets hope we are finally breaking out of the 115-125 range ad see a decent run from here.

Is there a published link? Any idea how m one finds out what the high water mark for increased performance fees is?

Thanks for the AHL updates. If it gets to $1.30 and the SP is still sitting more or less where it is, I think it has to be worth a further nibble. Good performances in the FUM will tell in the SP eventually.

Just looked back through the threads to see when AHL was last trading around this level (around 31 July, currently p8-9 in the threads), and looking at the comments the SP at that time was around 119-121p. I know the SP supposedly doesn't track AHL as closely as it used to due to diversification/acquisitions, but that big fall in the SP from around 125p to 110p at the start of August did coincide with AHL's drop just after it had approached the HWM. So now AHL is recovering, it stands to reason that the SP should be back up near 120p, no?

haha. Probably! Nah, lets think positive. Just imagine.. next week AHL guides gracefully through 1.28, continues steady climb towards 1.30 over next couple of weeks. Meanwhile stellar results are announced, along with nice fat divi. Funds under mgmt back on the up.. it's all too much for the shorters to handle, share price surges towards 150p.... happy days are here again. On that note, a good weekend to all!

AHL on the up http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/man-rises-after-biggest-fund-posts-best-first-half-since-2008.html?cmpid=yhoo