Sector9 Jul 2018 18:07
Pubs set for a crafty return to growth
Dominic Walsh
July 9 2018
Pub numbers are set to enjoy a resurgence from 2023 based on their sales of drinks rather than food
The pub industry could be toasting a return to growth soon after at least 40 years of decline in the number of pubs nationwide.
According to data from MCA, the market analyst, the number of pubs will continue to fall for another two years, but then will flatten out from 2021 and will turn positive from 2023 as closures are more than offset by new openings.
The forecast comes amid a resurgence in “wet-led” pubs — where drinks rather than food account for the majority of sales — and MCA predicts that pub sector turnover will outpace the wider eating-out market this year for the first time since 2008. It forecasts that the market will be worth £22.5 billion in revenues, up 1.6 per cent, ahead of the 1.5 per cent growth predicted for the eating-out market, helped by growing demand for craft beers and spirits.
It says that “in a downbeat consumer market, drinks at a pub are a lower- spend social occasion than a meal at a restaurant. Coupled with impressive innovation, rising standards and increasing professionalism, pubs are now leaner and more competitive than for decades.”
MCA’s UK Pub Market Report forecasts a 1 per cent decline in the number of pubs this year to almost 46,300 on the back of closures in the tenanted and leased sector. It says that the number of independent and managed pubs is growing.
Based on analysis by MCA and the British Beer and Pub Association, since 1980 the number of pubs across the country has fallen by more than 22,000.
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