Member Info for TimBob

Ben,
I'm lucky as i bought in heavily in 2008-2011 through Sharesave and Share Incentive plans; the best one being the £1.5k i bought at 11p a share and got 1 free after 3yrs and all tax free after five...
Not really sure what the average "cost" of mine is now as i bought and sold them throughout...
The institutions are not stupid; they will know something a lot of us amateurs don't (tho they do get it wrong as well)... they'll also be looking at TW in the medium to longer term (potentially 3-10yrs) too.
TW will start paying Divi next year which will help the SP and then as we come out of the recession TW will maximise margins on land bought at a cheaper price during the down turn, divi will rise, SP will then climb as others jump on board a good div return...
Nige_W,
Will have a look at GGP again; Still holding onto some of my gold stock of choice (CEY ) but i think they've done all there big movement so still selling off and reinvesting back into TW and elsewhere... I might well be proven wrong, but i doubt the price of gold will double anytime soon... it's hit a 15yr high of $2070/oz in aug (34% up from the 2019 high) but has since slipped back to around the 1950 max for the past few weeks; i think it'll hang around there for a while before slipping back down as the markets recover in 2021/22...

Nig / Ben,
My wife's business is mortgages... so i hear a lot of what is going on. At the min, there are no 95% morgs available for first time buyers and a limited amount of 90% ones. This is certainly holding some back that would otherwise be buying.
Equally, a lot of the lenders are saying the reduction is due to maintenance of "service standards" but talking directly to the BDMs, alot are expecting house prices to drop 5-15% depending on which lender they work for.
IMHO, prices will drop in the new year when redundancies start kicking, but by what, i'm not willing to even have a punt!!!
Even with price drops, i think the big house builders are all in a good position to weather the storm and if anything, have been over sold...

Ben, Nige, Owls;
PSN vs VTY... personally, if i was picking one; it'd be PSN regardless of the quality of the product etc... Persi have a massive long term land bank (both held and as options) and have the cash... Vistry on the other hand have a lot of work ahead to amalgamate two under performing house builders and the loss of Pete Truscott the other year was also a massive blow. They don't have the Land Bank (proportionately or otherwise) that Persi has and the margins they operate on are/were a lot lower than TW, Persi and BDev...
Don't get me wrong, i think they have a good opportunity to cut costs through better purchasing power, but i think there is a lot that can go wrong with them...

Think i'll stick to TW...

Mossimo,
You are right... buyers should have been notified A) buy the developer when they first negotiated the sale/purchase B) by the solicitor when reviewing the legal work C) potentially the mortgage provider picking it up and querying it too...

The real issue appears to be, in most cases, people are saying that they were not informed; by the developer and that the solicitors were either those recommended by the developer or even insisted upon, so had a vested interest in the sale...

I think the reality is probably somewhere in the middle; most people were probably informed somewhere, but the ground rent was probably peanuts, so they thought, i'll save £10k on my house price... then down the line the freehold cost has skyrocketted and the ground rents gone up either in line with inflation or doubled every 10yrs and is now a reasonable hit...

Krusty,
Yes i think you might be right on weighing down the SP... hopefully not by too much as like we're all saying, TW appears to have started to address the issue.... I'm still topping up on TW with regular investments; i think anything less than £1.40 is a good price to buy TW at (for the long term)....

Not suprised that the Competition and Markets Authority has opened cases on Barratt, Countryside, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey for the use of "toxic" leaseholds...
IMHO this wont hit TW too badly; they have already set aside cash to cover this and stopped the practice as soon as it became apparent that there were going to be issues... I know that they have actively engaged in "buy backs" of some of these leases they sold off in 2008 and been working with other business' and investors that bought some of these leases to remove the "doubling" ground rents.
Will be interesting to see what happens with this in the long run, but im sure it wont hurt TW. too much...

Nige,
100% in agreement with you on Housebuilders being undervalued for years... Also with you that Gold is a safer bet at the min. House prices are holding up... at the min; but sooner or later they will drop, either caused by banks restriction on lending (which is happening right now) and or the pent up demand burning out...
Think TW and the other big builders have already had this priced into their value, but we won't see real gains on them until the housing market has actually bottomed and is back on the up... on a "gut feel" i think we are looking at least at a two years recovery; share prices might pick up sooner, but i really doubt these will "jump up"... or ever be valued properly!

Losses and other stuff...

TW and a lot of other builds pushed out massive losses in the previous recession to offset against tax owed from previous years; i suspect they and lots of other businesses will do a sim thing again this year. Probably write down the land back value and any "good will" items that have no real tangible value.

Whilst TW is exposed to London slightly more than the likes of Barratt, both have minimal exposure when compared to BKG. I am expecting Berkeley to have a massive hit on there books but i doubt this will have an impact on TW either way.

I'm with Ben on that i cant see RR going under... however, i'm with Zac in that its going to take years for the aerospace sector to recover and that is going to hit RR massively...

No Worries Mike,

Yes, EPIC have some good "essential" tenants that have traded right through this and the asset managers seem to do a good job; as long as that carries on and a reasonable divi comes in every month; i'm not too worried about watching the SP too closely.

Started buying in at just about the £1.00 mark on regular investment. Made some big buys at the 75p, 65p and 55p marks; average all in is now 62.5p; so only down about 12% at the min. Mostly was buying into EPIC for the monthly divi, which was about 5% yield when i first started, with other shares stopping their divis i moved more over here for the regular income; which looks like the right call as some of those stocks are down 40-50% now.

Also bought into a couple of gold miners in Jan/Feb, which have rocketed, so will be selling some of those off now to re-invest into the stocks that are still down. Wish i'd put more into them in ways, but put way too much into one or two shares in the past and got a bit burnt, so like to hedge my bets a bit...

Probably see you in a few weeks ;-)

Tim

From what i heard and saw, some Persi sites never stopped! I know a lot that had just started with groundworkers on as Principal Contractor just ploughed on; a couple of sites i've been working with carried on with reduced numbers too. My understanding is none actually Stopped 100% though i could be wrong on that.
Quality wise, persimmon have issues no-doubt, but they are a money making machine and are have been happy with that! Think we'll see that in this interim result; hopefully help boost TW a little too...

Jay, yes... know Joe from when he was an apprentice Brickie.... he was a trainee site manager and then Assistant SM on a few jobs i looked after on the Commercial side, before i left for the Dark side!!!

Site Manager i was thinking of is on there Market Harborough Job, so not sure who's on the CD site; so good luck!!!
Yeah Glencore is a long termer for me... hoping for £2.40 in the next couple of years; sooner would be nice tho!

Hi Ben, I'm in on GLEN as well...
Avg £1.75 at the min, but they are a good buy at anything less than £2.00 In my opinion... just got to sit tight; divi was canceled last week, so just seeing a bit of fall out because of that at the min.
If the Site Manager at Castle Donnington is who i think it is; he's ok, won't take any ****e from any trade but if you work with him will make sure you can earn your money and go home happy...

BillyBig... Yes i know they were at £2.40 in Feb; i was looking at them in sept last year at £2.70... even back then they were being talked about positively. Since Feb we've have Covid19 and that has had a big impact across the world and on most the markets. Previous Bear Markets have normally taken 6-12mth for most shares to recover; i'm being more pessimistic about this one tho (mostly as it is still an ongoing issue), hence my couple of years comment!

Wylie... yes got the impression GrowUp was a little opinionated on this!!! I've done a load of research on Glencore and at anything less than £2.00 they are a good buy. My avg purchase price is currently £1.75 so a little down on them at the min; i'll keep adding to them with my regular month purchases, so happy for them to remain on the low side for a bit... Happy to hold these for a couple of years...

Don't normally post on this board as i've only just started to buy into Glencore...
I've been investing in mining stocks for the past year (gold miners specifically) as i reduced share holdings in some other cyclical shares that i thought had peaked and also due to the increased risk around Brexit... At that time Glencore was set at £2.70ish and being touted as a buy by a number of brokers...
The cancelation of the dividend is somewhat frustrating and ist clearly the catalyst for the reduction in SP; however, it is something most businesses have done to conserve cash or reduce debt with the unknown economic situation ahead and something most brokers seem to have been expecting; so i wasn't surprised by it. And in someways think is good for the long term interest of the business rather than satisfying investors with a divi they cant afford to pay out!
They are down massively since 2018 yes, but that is mostly due to a massive cobalt spike in 2017-2018 (prices went from $24,000/ton in june 16 to $94,000/ton by march 18); this artificially inflated Glencore more than others (as it is the biggest producer in the world...), thus to compare with others, you need to look at where they all were back in 2015-2016 and ignore the SP spike that started at the back end of 2017 and into 2018... they were always going to drop.
The two latest brokers ratings have a target price on this ranging from £1.80 to £2.40... and list them as a HOLD and buy respectively... if you want a quick win, i doubt this is the share for you, but if you are are looking longer term, then i think this will reach £2.40 in the next couple of years...

Bamps, most the brick barons i work with at the min knock 10% of each lift and tag it onto the top outs because the trowels all want to leave them because they can get a better flow on the runs and earn a bit more; also have a bit of a completion bonus on them too just to incentivise them; which i have to say helps!

Ben, not sure which Pers region you were in, but they vary massively from my experience... A couple very goods ones, then a few good, some acceptable and then the other 50% not good at all (polite way of saying ****!)!
Not worked with or for Redrow so can't comment, but know there PD in the East Mids and he's good and expects good quality... Having walked round a few of their houses over the years, there finished product always looks better than the rest...

I'm not convinced by the city centre conversions... Its a sector i've been working in for the past 18mths having been with the Big 3 housebuilders for 20 years. Your have to be very careful with these developments as there are always unknown costs and there are also tax implications and costs that new builds don't have. The planning changes will make it easier and a little cheaper on the up front costs, but the same cost risk and tax costs, so will simple speed up the process rather than changing the industry; there simply isn't the margins there for the house builders and doesn't fit there business unit models.
With the onset of Covid our sales and marketing consultants have seen a 75% reduction in what they call "serious" interest, with a big swing to properties with exterior space, something HBs can offer... and whilst they may offer smaller gardens than older properties, some see that as more of a benefit.

Nige,
Main reason for selling of my mining stock is that i've almost doubled my money. I started selling out TW at the £1.70 mark and i think averaged out to about £1.90 a share... so my strategy is to start selling off CEY (not all in one go!) and buy back my TW share; even selling half my CEY stake and buying back in TW at £1.40 will give me 36% more shares in TW than i held in sept 19. Once i've got them, i'll look at other options, maybe increase my holdings in some other income shares or take a punt on something...

Who knows... November could be an entirely different world to now. House prices seem to be on the up, but some of that is bound to be from pent up demand and people desperate to move from flats after being cooped up from lockdown!
Mortgage availability is the big issue. Lenders are being very funny about lending to people who have been on furlough, with some refusing to lend to people unless they have been back at work for 3mths; the tightening up of lending will reduce prices in the short term or at least prevent them from rising.
I personally think buying in TW at anything below £1.40 is a good buy long term; short term, i now doubt they'll be much higher than £1.50 mark for long this year, potentially £1.50-£1.60 at some point in 2021...
Long term, TW is buying land at below average prices at the min, so they will start to see the benefit in a year to two's time; Then we will see the return of a decent special divi and the share price will boom... hopefully!

Dont Worry Nige I started moving from TW into Gold (via mining stocks - my stock of choice was Centamin (CEY)) and some other shares last Sept; also released about a third of my investments into cash in Dec. Mostly because of the uncertainty around Brexit. But with Covid appearing, it looks like i made the right call.
Seen some great gains on Gold front, but i'm not sure how much longer the Bulls will go on this; so now just deciding if i should start to sell them off...
Started buying back into TW at the £1.40 mark... and will continue to top them up with some of my monthly returns from divis that are still paying out.
Long term have no feat with TW, just don't see them hitting the £5 mark.