Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Yes saw the statement from the board RE increasing dividend payments; great news and no doubt has help push up the share price. REIT distribution requirements is to return 90% of tax exempt income profits; so, if they right down the asset values, these can be used as losses on the annual tax return and therefore reduce the profit and in turn reduces the amount that they have to distribute... if they choose to do it...
Managed to persuade my mother to move some of her investments from CASH ISA into an investment ISA and buy these (only 10% mind); wish she'd listened and moved more, but she was very cautious; she's now getting more in divi payments from EPIC then the other 90% combined!!! Managed to get her bought in at £0.51...
Had my divis all set to reinvest for the past 9mths, building up an additional holding, but at close to £0.70/share, the divi return is starting to get a bit too diluted; so thinking of releasing some shares to pump into something else that's still depressed in value.... if i can find anything that gives me confidence that is!
Either way, im happy with EPIC, its doing me well...
Lies, damn lies and statistics...
UK mortgage approvals his highest levels since 2007 = True Stat... however, the thing that hasn't been reported is the % of these approvals that are "Re-keys"... in the mortgage world, a mortgage approval has a time limit, when this limit is hit, it has to be re-approved; these re-approvals/re-keys are counted in the approval figures of all lenders...
With the delays in New Builds earlier this year, i would suspect that a large quantities of these are additional re-approvals caused by the delays earlier in the year...
Bamps, Big issue with re-building towns is a lack of genuine joined up thinking! They focus too much on one part or another and never put all the pieces together! Another problem with inner city redevelopment is VAT (assuming refurbishment), as new builds are VAT exempt it is a far more attractive and profitably; typically with less constraints and less risk!
BenR, I know a number of serving police officers and my dad is a retired copper... From his point, even criminals respected the police years ago; from my serving friends, now nobody seems too... every police officer is a racist, apparently even those from ethnic backgrounds.
TW does always seem to get the brunt of it; maybe because they really dont know what they want to be be! Persimmon are clear, they build lower value new builds and have a very distinctive profile for there sites. Barratts on the other hand are more towards the top end of the bulk housebuilders building higher quality products. TW, seems to be lost in the middle somewhere!
Jefferies have come out in the past day or two and said that UK house builders have been over sold and they are now just too cheap and present a great opportunity; unfortunately they list BDEV, PSN and Berkeley as its key picks. Personally, i see why PSN and BDEV, but Berkeley is too london centric IMHO... i'll still be buying TW. though as i think PSN and BDev will get hit a little harder on the whole freehold investigation; though that might be years off!
So, at current levels of rent payment levels, EPIC divi is covered 131%... based on roughly 202mil shares and the current dividend at £0.0033/mth, this would leave the company with circa £200k additional cash at the end of each month... £2.4m per year.
And if it is as high as 140% which they have said is a possibility, this would equate to almost £3m at the end of the year.
It'll be interesting to see if and how much surplus is there at the end of the year and what the intentions are for the cash; personally, i believe a combination of debt reduction and increased cash reserves would benefit the business in the short term, Although, an asset purchase (at current depressed values) could / would benefit long term...
Well, i have to say im not too fused with people talking about other shares on the board; sometimes good to hear about something else. I too benefited from the GGP talk; selling some of my shares in one gold stock to buy some GGP and have seen some good gains. should have sold all of them, but was too cautious!
Anyway, surprised to see TW below £1.00; didn't think it would happen, but goes to show sentiment can out weigh stats... Too much fear in the market at the min and talk of a 2nd lockdown after the Govt said there wouldn't be a 2nd lockdown is shocking the markets IMHO...
Nige_W...
Would appear that i have gone a bit mad! Apparently i sold a load of my CEY shares 2wks ago after a comment i think you made and bought into GGP after all!!!
Shows i've obviously got too much going on! Apparently got in at £0.1607 so sitting about 45% up; so thanks... just wish i'd sold all my CEY and bought GGP instead now!!! Hind sign is a wonderful thing!
Patron/ Nige / Owls...
yes gold is good in uncertain times, and whilst it might go up a bit from where it is and my well se a new high, I cant see it doubling.
I genuinely believe that BREXIT and the US elections have already been priced into a number of stocks and commodities, so really dont see there being big movements because of them.
Uncertainty around a recession is something that I dont think has been fully priced in yet, so may pull down some SPs and help support Gold.
Bdev is probably the best builder of the Big 3; but they dont have the same cash reserves as PSN and haven't written down nearly as much as TW for freehold, so could be caught out by that investigation. They are also still messing around with legacy systems and havent fully integrated David Wilson into the business after more than a decade; I think all these might start adding up against them...
Tim
Ben,
I'm lucky as i bought in heavily in 2008-2011 through Sharesave and Share Incentive plans; the best one being the £1.5k i bought at 11p a share and got 1 free after 3yrs and all tax free after five...
Not really sure what the average "cost" of mine is now as i bought and sold them throughout...
The institutions are not stupid; they will know something a lot of us amateurs don't (tho they do get it wrong as well)... they'll also be looking at TW in the medium to longer term (potentially 3-10yrs) too.
TW will start paying Divi next year which will help the SP and then as we come out of the recession TW will maximise margins on land bought at a cheaper price during the down turn, divi will rise, SP will then climb as others jump on board a good div return...
Nige_W,
Will have a look at GGP again; Still holding onto some of my gold stock of choice (CEY ) but i think they've done all there big movement so still selling off and reinvesting back into TW and elsewhere... I might well be proven wrong, but i doubt the price of gold will double anytime soon... it's hit a 15yr high of $2070/oz in aug (34% up from the 2019 high) but has since slipped back to around the 1950 max for the past few weeks; i think it'll hang around there for a while before slipping back down as the markets recover in 2021/22...
Nig / Ben,
My wife's business is mortgages... so i hear a lot of what is going on. At the min, there are no 95% morgs available for first time buyers and a limited amount of 90% ones. This is certainly holding some back that would otherwise be buying.
Equally, a lot of the lenders are saying the reduction is due to maintenance of "service standards" but talking directly to the BDMs, alot are expecting house prices to drop 5-15% depending on which lender they work for.
IMHO, prices will drop in the new year when redundancies start kicking, but by what, i'm not willing to even have a punt!!!
Even with price drops, i think the big house builders are all in a good position to weather the storm and if anything, have been over sold...
Ben, Nige, Owls;
PSN vs VTY... personally, if i was picking one; it'd be PSN regardless of the quality of the product etc... Persi have a massive long term land bank (both held and as options) and have the cash... Vistry on the other hand have a lot of work ahead to amalgamate two under performing house builders and the loss of Pete Truscott the other year was also a massive blow. They don't have the Land Bank (proportionately or otherwise) that Persi has and the margins they operate on are/were a lot lower than TW, Persi and BDev...
Don't get me wrong, i think they have a good opportunity to cut costs through better purchasing power, but i think there is a lot that can go wrong with them...
Think i'll stick to TW...
Mossimo,
You are right... buyers should have been notified A) buy the developer when they first negotiated the sale/purchase B) by the solicitor when reviewing the legal work C) potentially the mortgage provider picking it up and querying it too...
The real issue appears to be, in most cases, people are saying that they were not informed; by the developer and that the solicitors were either those recommended by the developer or even insisted upon, so had a vested interest in the sale...
I think the reality is probably somewhere in the middle; most people were probably informed somewhere, but the ground rent was probably peanuts, so they thought, i'll save £10k on my house price... then down the line the freehold cost has skyrocketted and the ground rents gone up either in line with inflation or doubled every 10yrs and is now a reasonable hit...
Krusty,
Yes i think you might be right on weighing down the SP... hopefully not by too much as like we're all saying, TW appears to have started to address the issue.... I'm still topping up on TW with regular investments; i think anything less than £1.40 is a good price to buy TW at (for the long term)....
Not suprised that the Competition and Markets Authority has opened cases on Barratt, Countryside, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey for the use of "toxic" leaseholds...
IMHO this wont hit TW too badly; they have already set aside cash to cover this and stopped the practice as soon as it became apparent that there were going to be issues... I know that they have actively engaged in "buy backs" of some of these leases they sold off in 2008 and been working with other business' and investors that bought some of these leases to remove the "doubling" ground rents.
Will be interesting to see what happens with this in the long run, but im sure it wont hurt TW. too much...
Nige,
100% in agreement with you on Housebuilders being undervalued for years... Also with you that Gold is a safer bet at the min. House prices are holding up... at the min; but sooner or later they will drop, either caused by banks restriction on lending (which is happening right now) and or the pent up demand burning out...
Think TW and the other big builders have already had this priced into their value, but we won't see real gains on them until the housing market has actually bottomed and is back on the up... on a "gut feel" i think we are looking at least at a two years recovery; share prices might pick up sooner, but i really doubt these will "jump up"... or ever be valued properly!
Losses and other stuff...
TW and a lot of other builds pushed out massive losses in the previous recession to offset against tax owed from previous years; i suspect they and lots of other businesses will do a sim thing again this year. Probably write down the land back value and any "good will" items that have no real tangible value.
Whilst TW is exposed to London slightly more than the likes of Barratt, both have minimal exposure when compared to BKG. I am expecting Berkeley to have a massive hit on there books but i doubt this will have an impact on TW either way.
I'm with Ben on that i cant see RR going under... however, i'm with Zac in that its going to take years for the aerospace sector to recover and that is going to hit RR massively...
No Worries Mike,
Yes, EPIC have some good "essential" tenants that have traded right through this and the asset managers seem to do a good job; as long as that carries on and a reasonable divi comes in every month; i'm not too worried about watching the SP too closely.
Started buying in at just about the £1.00 mark on regular investment. Made some big buys at the 75p, 65p and 55p marks; average all in is now 62.5p; so only down about 12% at the min. Mostly was buying into EPIC for the monthly divi, which was about 5% yield when i first started, with other shares stopping their divis i moved more over here for the regular income; which looks like the right call as some of those stocks are down 40-50% now.
Also bought into a couple of gold miners in Jan/Feb, which have rocketed, so will be selling some of those off now to re-invest into the stocks that are still down. Wish i'd put more into them in ways, but put way too much into one or two shares in the past and got a bit burnt, so like to hedge my bets a bit...
Probably see you in a few weeks ;-)
Tim
From what i heard and saw, some Persi sites never stopped! I know a lot that had just started with groundworkers on as Principal Contractor just ploughed on; a couple of sites i've been working with carried on with reduced numbers too. My understanding is none actually Stopped 100% though i could be wrong on that.
Quality wise, persimmon have issues no-doubt, but they are a money making machine and are have been happy with that! Think we'll see that in this interim result; hopefully help boost TW a little too...
Site Manager i was thinking of is on there Market Harborough Job, so not sure who's on the CD site; so good luck!!!
Yeah Glencore is a long termer for me... hoping for £2.40 in the next couple of years; sooner would be nice tho!
Hi Ben, I'm in on GLEN as well...
Avg £1.75 at the min, but they are a good buy at anything less than £2.00 In my opinion... just got to sit tight; divi was canceled last week, so just seeing a bit of fall out because of that at the min.
If the Site Manager at Castle Donnington is who i think it is; he's ok, won't take any ****e from any trade but if you work with him will make sure you can earn your money and go home happy...