RE: The Importance of Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)25 May 2022 14:01
Apologies! Trying to copy & paste on this site is difficult!
Second attempt:
I posted earlier this month about what I believe is crucially important going forwards for GGP and investors, and what Shaun Day has recently talked about, several times, and it's the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
CAGR = (Ending Value / Beginning Value) ^ (1 / Number of Periods) – 1
Shaun Day has said recently that, "Is going to be quite spectacular"
Today, Shaun Day has commented further on this, IMHO, crucially important factor (Thanks as always to Dip!):-
"Well, it's the growth per annum of, and I'm really talking about the fundamental value of the ore body. So, as you continue to add ounces, as you continue to incorporate those into the life of mine plan(LOM), you're then able to get these valuations and you can augment that valuation with material, with valuation on unclassified material that doesn't yet sit in the ore body.
- But fundamentally you slowly work up this understanding of fundamental value. And when you have an ore body that's growing at 50% per annum.
- That's even just the Reserve case, which is all new material coming into the ore body and that's all leveraging the same upfront CAPEX. So, there's still only one haul road, still only one decline, one campso the capital efficiency as you bring in additional ounces just gets better and better.
- We've got these cash costs sitting around $645 an ounce USD against a price circa $1850. You'remaking well in excess of $1,000 an ounce. So, you bring these ounces in, no additional CAPEX, it just falls to the bottom line, it just falls to cash generation and that drives up this Net Present Value (NPV) very quickly.
- So, what I'm kind of trying to explain there with this CAGR, if you look at where we started with this ore body and you look at the various price discovery points, you just see this phenomenal growth rate and that's exactly what you would expect with a world class ore body.
I can't stress how important this factor is going forwards! TT