Member Info for tickhilltim

Who believes historic NAV figures?

The property portfolio will be revalued as at 30 Sep for covenant testing purposes.We will find out the result in Nov, maybe earlier. Down another 10%+? .Nrr only added £5m to cash pile at last trading update, despite assets sales agreed/ signed totalling £52m.This suggests to me that Nrr has negative operational cash flow because of unpaid rents.Continuing negative cash flow will add strain to 65% bond LTV.To return to sensible gearing, assets sales need to be nearer £200m or offset by share placing,which would now be highly dilutive at a market cap of under £150m.

Great to see Board moving quickly and putting our money where their mouth is.Let’s hope they do a meaningful amount.

Sep quarter rent collection stats critical.Will nrr be cash flow positive? A further £100m+ asset write down? LTV under pressure.Trading update in October essential.some good news needed to reverse share decline.

We really need to see the rent collection rate improve before getting too excited.Hopefully, we will get the Sept quarter figures early in October.

Great idea from the board.Commercially sensible.Only losers are the fund managers whose fees go down? Never mind.When price goes back up far enough they can issue more shares- on the advice of their fund manager.

NRR does not have a liquidity problem.It has a debt problem.Previously asset sales were targeted at reducing debt ( like Intu).But now needed to offset trading losses.If asset values are marked down again, as is highly likely ,then leverage rises further.Probably already over 50%.My estimate is that nearer £200m of asset sales could be needed to properly stabilise the company Unless they raise more equity .Intu left it too late. NRR not yet as hamstrung.Any talk of dividends or buybacks is just a dream.

Fall probably due to news stories about how bad life is for wet- led pubs, and most retail outlets And how big retail are trying to beat down rents.And how valuers are not reducing asset values as much as they should, citing lack of transactions for comparables. Or are they are putting together a share placing before the price drops further ?

Must have been prepared in a rush.Board seems to have forgotten to tell us if they made a profit or loss on trading.Cash is up by £5m.But obviously boosted from asset sales.Not possible to work out how much was realised from asset sales as info on sales does not specifically state what contracted sales were achieved, hiding it in an overall figure including agreed sales.Trading losses could be £40m.Leverage is not going down.Still it could have been worse.Management paddling hard.

On first glance ,nothing worse than expected.But looks as if they have overstated revenue and understated losses by shifting almost half of the rents waived into the second half results.No doubt allowed by accounting rules but still misleading.They could have chosen to take the hit in the first half.

AGM on Friday.Trading and cash flow update not obligatory, but sensible with such uncertainty.

PFG using excess liquidity to buy in £75m of 2023 Notes at min 94% of face.Not the retail bonds.Safer use of the money than lending it?

RNS today clarifies collection data.It would now be a shock if they did not pay a dividend, but level another matter.This is a relatively highly geared REIT (c 40% at y/end).Asset values undoubtedly will have fallen since then.But asset sales may have reduced debt.Numbers should be updated on 26/8.Unlikely previous divi level will be maintained unless it is taken from capital, which would not be very prudent in these uncertain times.

On the face of it, encouraging statement about a dividend.But 2Q figures capable of being misinterpreted.Not the only REIT manager doing this.They could have told us how much cash had been collected and how much had been rescheduled.They chose to amalgamate the two figures.Why do that? Suggests to me that they are embarrassed by how little has been collected on the due date.Deferrals are unavoidable, of course.But the info, as presented, distorts the true cash performance .No mention of debt/ cash in latest update.Shareholders deserve better.

Wrong.Only46% of retail rents actually collected.25% restructured/ deferred.Big difference.

If you cannot sell assets at sensible prices, you would have to raise more equity.Do you wait a few months for track record from the pubs and retail overdues to be reduced . If outcome poor, then outlook for shareholders will be poorer? What would increase the share price would be the directors collectively buying a decent amount of shares...

Agree that no cash problem.On co FY 21 base case, margin of c£15-20m before trading losses.Not a lot.Asset Sales target £80-£100m.If achieved ,LTV reduced, but only if remaining assets retain their current value.Would anyone be surprised to see another 10% drop? They really need to raise nearer £200m to be comfortable and not be seen as a distressed seller.

Moving down quickly today.Bad news and/or share issue imminent?

Good they got the placing done.Wonder how much higher the interest rate is on the debt refinancing? I would be a hacked off placee if this drops to £1.57.Already 10% down.

Let’s hope it’s third time lucky.His last two employers have been spectacular failures.