Member Info for thurgarton

Interesting to note that there have been large autosells (stop loss?) at 10.5 so MMs will be happy. I wonder what XPB's take is?

What might be of more immediate interest is the upcoming Shell statement regarding carbon zero energy:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-joins-other-oil-majors-193000016.html

Might just be the news we've been waiting for.

It certainly appears that there are a large number of automatic sales which suggests that MMs are fishing for stop loss investors, and today's catch has been excellent. Can't personally see Shell buying a load of shares at this juncture, but it would certainly appear that MMs are trying to acquire shares to fill a large order so I may be wrong. As I have said many times, you need strong nerves to invest in this share. I certainly do not believe that now is the time to get out, especially as today's movements have no reason in terms of real news, and last week's rise was based more on optimism than facts. Any solid good news could easily trigger another major revaluation. Question is, how long do you wait. I'm much happier waiting at 10p than I was at 1.7p (Oct 19).

Damay Hill: FWIW RA/Ervington have held their current %age holding (21.9%) ever since he last fund raise. AFAIK RA's %age has barely changed for the last 3 years despite the various fund raises. To increase it significantly would, as I understand it, put him in the position of having to launch a bid. I therefore think that he is not the one hoovering up the shares at present, which leaves one prime suspect - but we could all be wrong!

If we new the answer to that, we would know what to do with our holdings! Personally I can't see anyone doing anything until after the accounts/audit are complete and published (early August). I suspect that 30 Jun will be something of a non-event (Shell and BA are hardly likely to bail at this stage). That nice Mr Shapps may say something further or we might get a TR1 in the meantime, but I suspect that the SP will stay around its present level until some further information is forthcoming, at which point there will be a need to move fast to avoid being caught out. All conjecture/personal opinion, of course.

Velocys web site now updated so that the larger shareholders has been revised:
Shareholders owning more than 3% of the Company at 31 May 2020 were as follows:
Ervington Investments Limited (21.4%)
Lansdowne Partners (21.2%)
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC (11.5%)
Amati AIM VCT plc (10.4%)
Interactive Investor (4.5%)

Thus the IIs are reduced to 69% which confirms other information already in the public domain. If, as has been postulated, a takeover bid were to emerge, I wonder how it would be viewed by RA (Ervington). It has always been my view (based on nothing in particular) that RA is in this for the technology access not the money. BTW one VLS share is currently worth 1% of a Shell share, just thinking!

A very well balanced post, spurious. I, like you, have held these shares for a considerable, and, although now in profit (just), had faced considerable losses. I agree that a takeover (friendly or not) at the levels you are suggesting would be great and, in my mind would make sense for Shell (although I would not expect them to pay more than 30p/share and suspect that the offer would more than likely comprise shares in Shell plus a small cash element). Moreover, I can see little point in scaring off shareholders by going for another funding now, as has been suggested, as it would not raise sufficient funds to even get close to funding the Altalto project, and the company appears to have enough funds to cover its day to day running costs. All this, of course, is pure conjecture. Those of us still "in" (including XPB?) can only wait and see what Monday brings. Staying in hoping for a takeover will take a lot of nerve if the SP gets close to 20p.

XPB: Nice try,, but you didn't mention when BP and Fulcrum got together in your original post on the subject despite your google claim, and the quote I gave was the result of just that. I made my reply before seeing your subsequent admission that it was history, but why not say so in the first place?

XPB: You're at it again - half a story. Just to avoid confusing others on this board:
"In November 2016, Fulcrum and BP formed a major strategic partnership that included a $30 million equity investment in Fulcrum by BP and a 500 million gallon jet fuel offtake agreement with Air BP, the aviation division at BP, that will provide Air BP with 50 million gallons per year of low-carbon, drop-in jet fuel."
So not news, just history. It would be nice if Shell and BA were to say something, otherwise, given VLS PR's track record, we are likely to hear nothing for the next couple of months! I notice that the AIM 26 facts sheet has not been updated since 31 March. It would be interesting to see what the current II holdings.

XPB: I will agree that you have never been anything but negative regarding VLS's long term prospects. However you must admit that the degree of negativity has been a variable. Moreover, much (but not all) of your comments have, IMHO, lacked veracity. I have always tried to post comments that are verifiable, or else made it clear that they were my opinion, rather than a fact. I am firmly of the view that the prospects for the Altalto project (both long and ashort term)have been enhanced by yesterday's RNS's and HMG's endorsement. We will see how this affects the SP. My personal view is that if the finance is forthcoming, VLS is ripe for a takeover. There is the potential for a huge growth in this sector and a larger company that is capable of a degree of self financing that VLS can only dream about would surely want to cash in. What level, and who, is a moot point. I seem to have had more than my share of takeovers within my portfolio over the years (Invensys, Fyffes, ARM) and have prospered as a result, and I admit that I invested my ARM profits in VLS following the former's takeover with the expectation of a similar outcome (RA was already involved), but back then VLS was a very different company. I have never been a day trader and hence your comments have never had an influence on my holding, but you must surely admit that the content of your posts is always influenced by the position you hold at the time of posting.

XPB: If you pedal back any harder, you will be in grave danger of meeting yourself coming the other way. Given that the Chancellor has raided just about every source of funding available to him, I find it gratifying that even this small (relatively) grant has been paid at this time. The only justification on the part of HMG is the desire for a "green" exit to the current economic crisis and the belief that VLS need to be encouraged. As to your latest prediction, a further placing, whatever gives you that idea? It surely can't be a figment of your imagination and therefore you must have a some evidence to substantiate the claim. As I see it, there is little chance that a placing will fill the funding requirement anyway. Backing from Shell and BA , allied to the support of HMG, would make a strong case to take to the financiers IMHO. BTW do you have a second nom de plume of owenski on another platform?

XPB: I note that you are seemingly incapable of stating off this board despite previous promises to do so. You may also have gathered that your input is not exactly popular and your motives frequently question. Yet you continue. Your attempt to play down the RNS by comparing a payment made last year, when nobody had even heard of COVID 19 and HMG was flush with money , with one made now when the economy is basically broke and HMG have poured billions of pounds that they don't actually have into saving the economy is laughable. Moreover, as the RNS says, that is not the end of the monies that Velocys may be awarded from the F4C competition. It doesn't even take any research to see the desperation in your posts on this topic.

XPB: ISTR that you have consistently posted your belief that the project will never get funded and therefore will not get built. Have you changed your view, and if so, why?

Interestingly, and this is purely speculative, I emailed Ricardo after the planning permission was granted last month. I have emailed them before and have always received prompt replies referring me to their web site with regard to decisions being made. This time, nothing! Could it be that they did not respond as they didn't want to reveal an imminent announcement as it would be tantamount to insider information. Just a thought.

XPB: Any particular reason for your expectations, like something factual for example? In any case, why should you be worried - you aren't a shareholder are you?

XPB: I have already emailed ricardo regarding the issue. If Velocys couldn't meet the conditions, why are they still on the shortlist for the award ? From he same web site you quoted:

In October 2019 Rika Biogas Technologies Ltd were awarded a Stage Two grant of £5M, and in December 2019, KEW Projects were awarded a Stage Two grant of £1.5m.
Project Title Lead Organisation Status
Straw to Liquid Biomethane (LBM) Demonstration Plant Rika Biogas Technologies Ltd £5M Grant awarded
Altalto ( Velocys Waste to Jet Fuel Project) Altalto Immingham Ltd Short listed
Sustainable Aviation Fuel From Waste-Based Ethanol LanzaJet UK Limited Short listed
Integrated ATC & F-T Demonstration Plant Kew Projects Limited £1.5m Grant awarded

Velocys’ Altalto waste-to-jet project and Lanzajet’s alcohol-to-jet project continue to develop their project proposals as part of the F4C. The Department for Transport remains committed to the projects and look forward to seeing progression towards Stage Two of the competition.

If he/she/it is telling the truth, XPB does not currently hold any VLS shares.

XPB: Where did this load of unattributed drivel originate and why have you bothered to post it? I am quite sure that Velocys is well aware of the financial requirements and, like us, doesn't need your help. I presume you have a holding in PHE as you seem to be ramping it, although why you should choose to do so on this board is beyond me. Please buy yourself a window-box and stop bothering us with your opinions.

ISTR - I seem to remember: BoD - Board of Directors : F4C - The F4C was launched on the 27 April 2017 by the Department for Transport (DfT) to promote the development of an advanced low carbon fuels industry within the UK, including supplier capabilities and skills in relevant technologies, while maximising value for money for the taxpayer. Velocys have already received Pt1 funding, Pt 2 funding decision is awaited. See this link:
https://ee.ricardo.com/transport/case-studies/f4c

Fair point, loosely. However, ISTR that two ex-Shell employees currently hold BoD positions at Velocys which rather suggests that the Velocys/Shell relationship is rather more than the "punt" suggested by XPB. To my mind, the key issues are the F4C award and the upcoming Annual Report. As you say, VLS have been running on fumes for a while, but the last 12 months have shown some sign of improvement with both the Japanese and Red Rock deals adding to the coffers. Enormous potential IF it gets the funding. Only time will tell.