The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I am hoping Brickell and Randall team up and buy the lot - a split deal seems worse for shareholders
Yeah I agree, but also, if it goes through, you still own shares in a company that we are told will be profitable in 2025, and if it doesn't, someone will step in to buy the business...you cant tell me the combined lot is now going for £40m when a year ago it was £400m..granted there was the legacy loss but still enough value here that I am interested
I am not here to convince you to buy or otherwise, I said my piece on my I think there is value, you pay your money you take your chance
Well like you said if they are running away why buy now? It's not the correct directorship that would be involved with a counter bid it's Randal and shareholders...plus a close period extends to if there is any material market information that dirs are privy too...so any negotiation on bidding or approaches..but I think that is not relevant anyway as you correctly stare, the current board are in bed with this current bid
I suspect it's a closed period for buying under bids but don't quite me on that...I look at value of capital raises, past bids, and now shareholders adding down here plus talk of Randal trying to get financing together to bid and it all looks like current price is too low...I could be wrong of course, like you say the elephant in the room is the legacy losses, the last set of results was terrible...was that all or not...we don't truely know was PIs
Legacy does have net assets though, so my take, if they expected more writedowns why not reflected, talk it all up for the sale. With the capital contribution for accredited it is like a £200m bidwhich is too low for a profitable growing business - I think a counter bid is in the offing
Could not sell a bean today, clearly mm's and it's filling big orders ...really expected better on all this news, CEO has lost trust of market is my conclusion...can only be recovered through profitable trading and cut out the unexpected costs they keep dropping in to most updates
Can we afford to buy them out? Not sure how to financing will go but perhaps the London ii roadshow is something to do with this
Rampers, derampers ..facts remain 100usd gives you an idea how cheap the EV is...under £300m for how much production next year, like 20+ ...it's stupid, SP can double and still be cheap Vs peers
Roxi did you have a triple espresso this morning? Lol. After recent weeks I just keep thinking a big dump will start whenever this moves...would love to be proved wrong of course
They limit lot size quite often on aim stocks...I have no confidence this is moving north until TR1 drops to say seller is out
Surely the whole business model of acquiring mature assets is the infill drilling though?
Basically the acquisition cost is over half our mcap...lol..stupid valuation
Biggest stand out to me here is the priced paid for this aqui Vs our own valuation...wtf is our mcap actually about now🤣
Malaysia now producing nearly as much as Montara..with finan infill maybe more...yet share price still in doldrums. With Akatara they will have 3 circa 6k producers and a fourth mixture off assets about the same...so well diversified going forward...price here remains low and now apparent that trust in board is still lacking..but sooner or later this looks too cheap and wil re rate imo
The next six months is simple equation for me. If oil stays around 80, they keep Montara online and get first gas at Akatara this is a double your money...if any of those factors does not come to pass it's tough again...but at mcap of about £160 m plus perhaps debt of £100m you are going to get 23k of production..so 1/3 or 1/3 of FB currently imo
Incredibly awkward interview style but some good points from Sir Martin
But really...what will remain is a loss making enterprise and high debt post disposal...not sure how you can buy with that
The big headline loss was due to H1 really, it's just getting aired a second time here. The worst part of the whole results is saying sales will fall 5-15% on FY2024..as that implies nothing has changed and on a downward spiral.