The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Hi MT, done & sent - there are copious notes on one of the tabs to assist, examples have been setup and dummy entries entered to protect the innocent (!) if the file doesn't open it may mean you have an older version of excel in which case I can save it as an older version & resend - let me know either way good luck, always free to answer queries on it
MT I log all my trades via a spreadsheet, 2 lines, one for the transaction one for the broker charge. You can then either filter by the share or pivot around the data, I have both and use them constantly, useful to see how you're doing across the board too If you're not a dab hand at Excel I can send you a sample if you have Excel and an e-mail
I asked Bonker99 ages ago probably around mid 2016 where his charts showed the top on the ftse 100, he gets his fair share of charts wrong like many but he has also called some very good ones so I do take heed. Anyway, I think the ftse 100 at the time was probably around 6000 and he called a forward top of 7712 for around october 2017 so not a bad call, I think it reached a high about 7780 so for a call well back at around 6000 if it indeed proves to be the top is a good call. His words thereafter are 'break 7100 and there could be tears with a best case of 6600-6800'. Seems fair but that would still only typify a correction (ie not a bear) What I do see however is a fair degree of fear in the market, I see that as a good thing for the market as 'bull markets die on euphoria' and I'm not seeing that, it wouldn't surprise me at all for the next bear market (overdue) to be a short sharp one but it may not be for some time yet
Ngog - Clln late rns, probably heavy dilution but will survive imo. With a new ceo and an eventual fresh start they may do well long term. Actually made money a few times on the way down but not been in since 50, it got too scary
MT HL do allow spreadbetting but it's on a different platform called HL Markets, its effectively IG but in a different guise, if you hover over 'our services' and select 'spread betting & cfds' it's there, I can't comment on the platform
one other mention, spreadbetting is a good idea if you don't use the leverage as it's tax free And one more, it's worth just watching the market and go accordingly, for example to me it feels like the market is struggling to go higher right now and a good place to short the market indices themselves as a hedge, the worst that can go wrong is a small loss if you feel you have to close. The one rule I would give myself is to never short the market at a low when everyone else is telling you to sell everything, that youtube video from 2013 that Cam supplied is a great example of someone saying sell everything and looking a right mug in hindsight :)
correct ngog, uk3s is a triple short on the ftse 100, midd is a long on the ftse 250 for example, there are loads more that I've never touched. MT, not dissimilar, most of my sipp is in managed funds which have fared me well hrough the years) so 90% funds 10% play but of that 90% funds about 25% was in cash last year (annoyingly) and remains so in anticipation of an eventual bear market/correction, just goes to show if you are convinced the market will drop heavily how much you stand to not gain if you are all in cash, that's why I prefer to hedge a little when I think the market's a bit toppy as it takes the heat off your losses. For example I am slightly down on my current ftse short because the market is up today but my shares are doing well on the pro side so it's evening out. To put a broader picture, my entire portfolio made around 15% last year (the Woodford fund was a drag, as was having too much in cash, I've since sold a bundle of Woodford), and my personal shares etc made about 15% also I estimate, so I probably didnt beat the market personally which is my target. One disclaimer, I would say shorts are there for short term use only in a bull market as they don't always pan out the way you would expect. http://monevator.com/short-etf-maths/
not sure I would use leverage to short personally, fraught with dangers them things and designed to take your money off you. Althogh I'm short of the ftse as of today (did v nicely on the santa rally ta so that would offset any losses) via suk2 which is a double short via hl it's more of a hedge against my current positions which I don't want to sell, follow the market as they say and it's still doing ok, does look somewhat toppy tho and needs a correction at the very least
You betcha, the wsg uplift went a long way towards that ! Only downside is I sold some of it way too early, just don't trust the buggers enough to leave it all in and feel there will be likely more delays and poss another placing, and Beaufort don't do good placings !