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Been banging on about this for years. Neurodenerative diseases are immune. Il-6 tick. Il-17 tick.
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2022/04/12/rheumatoid-arthritis-drug-alzheimers/6731649784102/
I dont know whats behind this rise. I suspect PH are doing their job. But my munterings/thoughts
1. C19. 29m people in full lockdown in shanghai. Thats nearly half the uk. Just think of the enormity.
2. Bioterror. Russia using chemical weapons again. Darpa and barda will no doubt get their budgets quadrupled. Good for us for reasons i wont repeat or bore with. But its septic shock in a nutshell
3. Very left field. In much the same way tyk2 caught my interest a decade ago. Egfr now doing the same. A lot of research recently and interest academically. We do have patents. But got parked with other priorities. Very curious if it gets revived. Very reminiscent of tyk2 early days. Watching.
Although i appear off my tits sometimes.
T-all has no good treatments. Its 300m pa market. 95% margin at least. Pe 10 its 3bn mcap. Pe 23 more 6bn. Pe 80 not unheard of. Just sitting it out for the market to catch up as usual
Top of my head calcs. Suggestion is approval after a p1 trial if improvent shown.
T-all nothing really good on the market. Very poor outcomes. Market size c$300m pa. Currently.
Very small number affected. So probably a trial of 40 people difficult to recruit.
P1 trial costs c£1m
Revenues $300m
Thats a 30bag on a pe c 10. 60bag on 200e
Ill stick around for another year. Its a side play but a very unique one and now patented (only tyk2 in cancer).
My point around the new fda approach in oncology. Srra may already have enough data for approval in anogenital at least. Ill dig at the weekend. But time value of money. Reduced time to commercialisation massively increases enterprise value either for an onlicence or doing it in house. Ill rummage
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/fda-oncology-chief-eyes-accelerated-approval-earlier-cancer-treatment-under-planned-project
Could get or 737 milestones in full years early. And a very fast track on 1802. May have got lucky again gla
A potential competitor in ulcerative colitis TD1473. Partnered with janssen.
They have now had 3 major fails in other drugs last 12 months. Latest yesterday. Are refocusing on tespiratory not immune. Morale must be high. Track record of p3 fails. Id be looking at back up compounds if i were jannsen. Let us see as usual