Member Info for ThinIce

It has an air of familiarity about it....

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2g8rz7yedo

....considering a significant RNS representing a third of the current MCAP could be about to drop.

# Trades 324

Vol. Sold 1,938,917

Sold Value £175.19k

Vol. Bought 2,638,755

Bought Value £248.11k

Still lots of upside potentially when the wider market wakes up.

Need to wait for Finals (mid-April)

Could the RNS be along tomorrow?

It may not be, but to pass the time, let’s hear your predictions for the Iliad contract size. I’m going £22M.

The longer this remains ‘undervalued’ the greater the appetite. A private equity backed deal is possible and with a premium to share price, would probably cost £100m.

Of course, it all depends on the potential for further growth and that would be down to the BoD convincing the private equity company. In light of the recent downturn, that might be difficult.

Nothing is off the table and with a £60M Mcap it’s prime for a takeover of sorts. Let’s hope for a significant re-rate.

The anticipated revenue figures for 2025/26 were reported net of the iliad contract. It wont make a blind bit of difference.

It’s completely disproportionate; £180k sold versus £80k bought.

For context, the difference (£100k) represents 0.166 of the market cap and yet the market cap today has fallen £5.4M.

Madness!

Yes, get that!

What I would say is that the iliad contract was alluded to at the Interims (September 2025) and the expectation was that the deal would still materialise at that time. If iliad had retracted their commitment (intent), HVO would have been aware at that time. So its not the case that there has been no further update since the LOI in January 2025.

Furthermore, I would have expected HVO to have been the stipulated service provided in iliad's funding round which started well before September 2025.

Drifting a little on relatively small trades.

Assuming that the iliad RNS will land some time next week, I think we may see some sustained buying this PM. Indeed, I am looking at this and thinking 8.50 is cheap and may top up myself.

It still seems incredible that the MCAP is £60M when one good deal could potentially account for a third of that value. Appreciate that margins/profit are the true measure.

I think there are few things happening here at once:

1. iliad securing their funding and the potential materialization of the HC trial

2. A re-rating of the stock following a reasonably bullish trading (pipeline) update

3. Some clarity on Octopus Investments' position (TR1) and resultant reduced selling pressure

4. Sentiment returning to the wider vaccine development market

5. Further HC Trials which are in the final stages of negotiation (x2 at least).

There not a lot of downside at these levels.

Cheers

TI

Don’t lose sight of the fact that there are two other HCT trials which could potentially land within the next month or so (as mentioned by Mo at the Interims).

Great buying opportunity. Hopefully no RNS for a week!

Question is, how much of the $155M is coming our way?

It was always suggested that this would be the largest Challenge Trial to date, so I'm going for a minimum of $20M.

We'll find out tomorrow!

Https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/iliad-biotechnologies-announces-115m-oversubscribed-series-b-financing-to-advance-bpze1-pertussis-vaccine

Further good endorsement from Kelly.

Someone must be picking them up!

I think someone is slowly building a stake here.

Octopus and Rathbones must still be exiting as despite the largish buys over the last few days, the price is static. The TR1’s should get this moving up IMO.

Hi Neon

The funding issue was mentioned by Mo at the company’s last update. It was more ‘still trying to raise the funds’ for the trial (or words to that effect).

To which he stated that he and Pinkerton were ‘quietly confident’ that they would.

I have no doubt they will raise the funds as they have secured £45M in funding to get to this point.

All the best

TI.

In relation to your point 2, Iliad were having some issues raising the necessary funds for the phase 3. So, whilst there was a LOI, the company could not commit (even subject to peer review).

I don’t know whether these funding issues have been resolved, but until they are, we won’t see an RNS confirming the trial is due to go ahead.