Member Info for thewackmiester

Morning all,
An article published for the people of Trinidad highlighting co2 eor, Columbus got the credit for the success of the pilot, but hey ho onwards we stride.

Have been keeping a very close eye on Trinity Exploration (Trinidad) there may be some news due.
Just a pointer, it may be worth a little digging.

https://newsday.co.tt/2021/04/15/how-using-carbon-dioxide-enhances-oil-recovery-in-tt/

GLA
Wacky

Hi all,

Good to see were moving in the right direction.
About a year ago I posted a valuation of £50mn for the sale of the Trinidad assets and said we would be giving it away if we sold for a penny less.
I now think with the available information to hand I may have undervalued the project.
(previously posted by another member, packed with info)
https://www.energy.gov.tt/carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage-ccus/

If we base the estimates on company published figures and any future contracts would be agreed on similar terms to the current Incremental production sharing contract (IPSC) currently in force with Heritage/BPC you could realise gross returns per annum of :

@ £70mn
Based on.
7500 BOPD x £25.00 (projected profit @ £50 per barrel) x per annum.
I have not included the returns from a full Field expansion at Innis Trinity as cannot confirm if the recoverable amount of 6.8mn barrels are accounted for within the 15000 BOPD forecast.
If they are not included an adjustment would need to be added per annum based on known figures.

Also to be taken into account would be company assets, goodwill, carbon tax but the most important and valuable piece of the company will be probably printed on an A4 sheet of paper stating :
Predator Oil and Gas Trinidad are hereby LICENSED to recover crude Oils through the use of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration.

Paul does mention the License application in the latest podcast and this is the news that I am waiting for, When announced the share price should be well and truly underpinned by this piece of news.

I do realise the figures I have quoted are pure speculation based on the ultimate recovery BOPD in six years time and PRD will be long gone by then so my estimate is based on 10% of future value.
Circa £80mn or 33p per share at todays current share allocation.

AIMHO of course.

GLA
Wacky.

Hi all,
Came across an article in the Trinidad Guardian.
Minister Khan on his opinions on the increase in production of oil assets on and offshore Trinidad.

In his opening statement he refers to :
"crude oil production will increase to over 90,000 barrels of oil per day (bo/d) by 2025 with most of the increase coming from state-owned Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd".
“We have a forecast here that says we can reach 92,000 in 2025. Unless we find new big fields. Remember this is on the periphery".

So my understanding on that particular part of the interview is, the increase in production is coming from workovers of existing wells.
That amounts to an increase of 40000 BOPD as current production is @ 50000 BOPD

I'm under no illusion that only a percentage of those figures will be CO2 EOR related, however if we enter an agreement with Heritage on similar terms as of the Trinity pilot and have similar profit margins per barrel (£15/£25) etc etc, the massive EOR project recently announced by Heritage could be worth many multiples on the sp over the term of the deal.

Oh and of course Carbon Credits.

Happy reading,
https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/khan-expect-increased-crude-oil-production-in-coming-years-6.2.1303675.d58d9d04b9

AIMHO of course,

GLA Wacky.

Hi LochNez,
Thank you for your kind words, much appreciated.

In reply to your question I have based my answer on "control".

PRD and the T & T Government are very much in a commanding position, and after waiting 25 years for the program to be reinstated (after Texaco packed up shop and walked away citing maintenance problems) I cant see the want or logic in diluting the power base on such an important nationwide project by issuing further CO2 services Licenses when one entity can dictate on behalf of the Government on how projects will proceed. (think Gas Safe under License from Centrica - British Gas)
Further Licenses could well be issued to other companies in the future but I think we (PRD) will be long gone before that happens.

Again, I refer to PRD being the preferred bidder, IMO there is a very good reason why we were chosen.

One Licensed CO2 services company with all the tools required under one roof, my guess would be Heritage/ Massy as the next operator.
"Ahem" of course after PRD and its extremely loyal shareholders being duly compensated for our World Class contribution to the future of the countries oil and gas industry.

AIMHO.

GLA
Wacky

Hi Bdt,

Don't forget the most important item on the checklist
CO2 Services License,
We will be the only company in Trinidad with the golden ticket, you can have millions of tonnes of CO2 but without the License you might as well fill up a rather large balloon and send it on its way into the Bermuda triangle, cos it wont do any good in Trinidad.
If you listen to the latest podcast Paul does mention this @ 7.50 minutes in.

After yesterdays article regarding the CO2 steering committee I would expect an announcement on the granting of the license (a brand new concept for CO2 EOR in Trinidad) either coinciding or just before news regarding CO2 expansion on the Heritage Oil fields,
I have to admit it does make me chuckle when other posters suggest that we could be muscled out of the way by other companies wanting in on the CO2 EOR,
Yeah right, join the Queue, the team at PRD did beat 9+ other companies including majors to win the contract for the pilot CO2 EOR at Innis Trinity.

They sure do need to do some more research.

AIMHO of course.

GLA
Wacky

Thanks chaps for the heads up, I obviously wasn’t paying attention, time to wake up.

Morocco, obviously.

Ireland.
Nordstream 2
LNG subsidies for heavy transport approved by the government.
Two gas fired power stations cancelled in an energy emergency.
Shell sign up for 50% of the planned wind farm on top of the decommissioned Kinsale gas field.
PRDs gas to power proposals (offshore gas to wire and CO2 sequestration ? )
Paul’s words “why not Ireland”

Malays words “When the ducks are quacking”

Trinidad.
A licensed CO2 sequestration business and the only Licensed business of its kind in Trinidad.
There’s the money.

AIMHO of course

GLA
Wacky

Good morning all,
I decided to take a back seat for a while and let the money thing do it’s bit, usually an awful amount of noise occurs when money is centre stage and it would be rude to interrupt when in full tilt par say,

So I will quietly suggest a little bit of digging is required on the amount of pay zones MOU1 will now target as Paul did say the drill would be after 3 zones, however the information I put forward from the presentation illustrated 6 zones, so there may be some confusion unless I’ve got it completely wrong and should return to sleep.

I will post any changes I can find.
PS All eyes on Nord Stream 2 as GRH pointed out, huge implications !!

GLA
Wacky

Hi CT,
Many thanks for forwarding the presentation to me, the document does indeed mention condensate, I have seen references to condensate in other documents with regard to the area surrounding GRF1 well but your document proves through the soil sample figures as shown on page 22 that the condensate does actually exist. Nice Find.

The document does also reveal something else not seen before, another oil seep close to the AKL101 drill site on the Guercif License known as the Tizeroutine seep on Page 10 and 20.

"The main source rock to be considered within the area is Domerian/Toarcian in age similar to the defined sources in the Middle Atlas and in the western part of the Prerif area. A Cretaceous source rock could also exist within the nappes complex. This source seems to be the origin of artificial oil production made during the twenties in Tizeroutine. Figure 2)"

Another interesting point is on page 21, the seismic photo of the GRF1 well, If you look to the left of the drill hole where the area is highlighted as "Strong amplitudes in the Tertiary & Kimmeridgian" you will notice that the anomaly extends beyond the 2000m drill depth, this has been mentioned previously in rns, (would have to search for it).
If the deeper reservoir's are present, the Mou1 drill could possibly prove this as in finding gas at total depth (2000m) and beyond.

For ease of reference, CTs link
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/upload/SponsorFile/File/2014_08/Maxim-Resourcrs---Hassi-Berkane-Presentation-July-2014.pdf

AIMHO of course,

GLA
Wacky.

Evening all,
I’m a firm believer in “if you want to know the future look at the past”
Came across an old presentation (2014) by Paul in his Fastnet days, not long before the company decided on a different path away from the O & G industry.
In the presentation there are lots of where they were, to possibly where we are now with PRD ( could the read and weep comment be aimed at a certain former colleague/s perhaps ? )
Ireland and Morocco feature heavily with lots of references to 3D seismic etc.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J0lpfq5rZ4k

And had a read through a prospectus by PRD from early 2020, lots of info, pages 42,43 and 53 with regard to Ireland are very interesting, option licenses to successor licenses, stipulations, Marathon 16/30 well life expectancy and LNG for Ireland.

The clues are all there.

https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Predator-Prospectus.pdf

Happy reading.
AIMHO of course

GLA
Wacky

We don’t need dilution.
We have Trinidad.

Atb
Wacky

Hi Sefton
I’m a great advocate of buy nice or buy twice, work smarter not harder, and by those values if a hedge was smart they would get in now.
But they won’t because there’s not enough free float for them to manipulate the market and ergo the long term holders.
When would enough dilution be enough?
For the small investor like me who has been in from the beginning the last thing I want to see is control taken away from the people who matter and important decisions are made by bean counters so they can make a percent to the detriment of everyone else.
Dilution is the last thing I want to see on this share.
We will reach the summit and imo can do so on our own terms without giving anyone a free ride without them paying their subscription.

Good to see you on the board again Sefton but you won’t change my view on this subject.

Atb
Wacky

Sorry Sefton
Can’t see how dilution will make me more wealthy, unless it substantially increases the Market Cap, so in all honesty, what’s the point ??
We are part of an exclusive club in PRD, do we really need new members when as we saw today when someone wanted to join they had to pay a premium.

Atb
Wacky

Atb
Wacky

Agreed,
If they want in, pay the rate, just like we have to.
Things certainly getting interesting.

GLA
Wacky.

Welcome back Sefton,
Atb
Wacky

Good Morning Grh

Thank you for your kind comment, it has taken a couple of weeks to work out exactly what the plan is with regard to Mou 1 and the surrounding area.

I’m also interested to find out about all the other wells drilled decades ago as per the pathfinder CRP whereas “all the wells showed oil plays especially the large seep around TAF-1X”

Morocco is heavily dependent on oil imports,
Will PRD Expand its interests? Or pave the way.
Would be rude not to.

GLA
Wacky

Good Morning all,

After reading through the prospective I am now in the opinion that the MOU drill will potentially prove up reserves of 1,640 bcf to 3,733bcf as we are using one drill to hopefully hit 6 pay zones.

PRD presentation page 10
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/07/30070921/Corporate-Presentation-29-July-2020_FINAL-DRAFT.pdf

The first targets TGB 3 and TGB 4 are the only targets to be recognised by SLR Ireland in the 2020 CPR, having reserves of 426 bcf to 879bcf. all the other targets TGB 2, 2A, 1, & 1A are PRD management scoping estimates only.

However
Target 2A is the previously undetected pay zone shown up in the the GRF 1 drill logs (appraised by Nu Tech) as per rns

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/morocco-8211-operations-update-u7q5vlzas98tuw3.html

If the MOU 1 drill hits this western extremity reservoir target it will derisk the new fan complex, hence the plan to drill MOU4, 6km to the N/E of MOU 1
Target 2A on PRD scoping estimates are 1,145bcf to 2,678bcf

As a comparison, Touchstone exploration in Trinidad as mentioned by Paul, our prospects could be worth 10 x as much because of the quality of the gas.

See article about findings and costings.

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2020/10/26/could-the-ortoire-block-deliver-1-trillion-cubic-feet-of-gas-for-touchstone-exploration/

Will Morocco be bigger than Ireland ?? Not for me to do the math, but when Paul said Read and Weep.

GLA
Wacky

Hi All,
Looks like our partners Massy have had their toe dipped in Oil production in T & T for some time.
A little bit of research has shown Massy in partnership with Petrotrin (now Heritage) have operated the Moruga West Field in south west Trinidad for some time (1999)

https://www.energy.gov.tt/exploration-and-production/

According to the Massy website,
"The Company's Operations is geared towards producing oil and selling same to PETROTRIN. This is done by the utilization of trained Company Personnel and Contractors. The contracted work accounts for the bulk of expenditure with such services as: Well Servicing Rig, Swab Rig, Electrical & Mechanical Services and transportation / lifting equipment. The Moruga West Joint Venture (MWJV) Field is classified as a mature field and a Waterflood Project was implemented in 2013 to enhance oil production".

http://massyenergy.com/productionresources

The field is on trend with Innis Trinity so could be a very likely candidate for CO2 EOR especially having undergone a waterflood program.

It could also be a possibility for Massy to be involved in the well workovers (swab etc) at Innis Trinity as mentioned in the recent rns, would make sense to keep the operations in house par say.

AIMHO of course.
GLA
Wacky

Good Evening GRH,
You're very welcome,
All for the greater good.

Atb
Wacky.

Hi All,
I note Trinity (T & T) had a nice % rise before dropping back a tad today on no news.
A joint venture for a CO2 EOR project on the massive Forrest reserve oil fields would be most welcome. It certainly would be advantageous to both parties to close out such a deal and IMO why Trinity procured the well Data from Heritage.
The Forrest Reserve was originally subject to a CO2 program in the 80s by Texaco but cancelled after CO2 shortages and maintenance problems.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TRIN/acquisition-of-onshore-3d-2d-seismic-data-set-706uvvh3s65ssc9.html

Important bits as per the Trinity rns 03/11/20

"The data package consists of 37km2 of 3D seismic volume (including related processing and reprocessing reports), 2D seismic lines, 3D seismic line extracts/regional lines and well log data for 16 Heritage operated wells.
The Company understands this to be the first time that Heritage has agreed to make 3D seismic data available to an independent lease operator for onshore areas in Trinidad".

"With a better understanding of facies and distribution of the reservoir zones, a much more accurate and focused effort on enhanced oil recovery ("EOR") techniques will be possible, reducing reservoir risk and potentially resulting in a material increase in production and reserves".

Bruce Dingwall CBE, Executive Chairman of Trinity, commented:

"This is a significant step for Trinity. As a technically and commercially driven production company, we are highly focused on maximising returns from our assets. As such, we believe that acquiring this data package will significantly enhance our ability to exploit the production potential of our onshore portfolio using the most modern methodologies.

Arlene Chow, Chief Executive Officer of Heritage Petroleum Company Limited, commented:

"We are proud to collaborate with Trinity in their effort to build new ways of doing business to our mutual benefit. It is in the best interest of Heritage, and by extension the State, for our onshore partners to refine their understanding of the fields in which they operate. It is hoped that this dataset will allow Trinity to develop its subsurface models, apply new well design and completion techniques and create enhanced oil recovery projects to maximize economic recovery and production from our assets."

Where have we heard those words before ??, With regard to the Innis Trinity Pilot project by any chance :)

And this Fellow
Dr Ryan Ramsook; (University of The West Indies)
Who previously worked for Trinity between 2013-2015 on Mature field development.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-ramsook-fgs-1620868b/?originalSubdomain=tt

and I believe has some contribution to the Cerm Project.
PETROLEUM STUDIES UNIT

https://sta.uwi.edu/eng/chemical/research-publications

One to keep an eye on
AIMHO of course.

GLA
Wacky

Good Morning all.
M.E.M
Many thanks for your comments.
Will keep digging
Glad to see PRD, Paul and the team are finally getting the recognition from the market they so deserve.
We are the gatekeepers.
Trinidad - Proven
Morocco - In progress
Ireland - In progress

GLA
Wacky