RE: Getting close29 Mar 2022 00:19
Bubble, Bizarre as it may seem, an argument can actually be made that the return of capital should not have any impact on the market capitalisation of AV because this surplus cash isn't factored into the current share price (instead, it forms part of the premium that a potential purchaser might have to pay if they wanted to try and acquire AV). If you think about it, terms like earnings per share (eps), dividends per share (dps), price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) take absolutely no account of what assets and liabilities sit in the balance sheet. The reality is AV does not currently anticipate that there should be any impact on its future expected earnings or dividends as a result of them handing back this surplus cash to shareholders and, from a discounted cash flow (DCF) perspective, any cash currently on the balance sheet has virtually zero future value (because it's never normally expected to be repaid). Obviously, since AV announced that they were planning to return the surplus cash, analysts have been re-running their DCF calcuations and this, in part, could explain why the share price has risen since the announcement. Using this logic, if we take the closing share price on 01 March (406.60p), the day before the announcement, and deduct the final dividend (14.70p) then an argument could be made that after the surplus cash has been distributed the new shares ought to be worth about 522.50p (assuming that there is no change in the valuation parameters and/or external price shocks). There should also be one additional consequence of this argument, namely that the share price could rise to around 506.60p (or 491.90p ex-dividend) prior to the return of capital and reorganisation (which have yet to be approved by the shareholders). It's an interesting theory, at least ;-)