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The probability of the next news being positive is statistically higher now for three reasons:

Revenue Reporting: The first "Production Revenue" RNS is a massive psychological milestone that the market has waited years for.

The Farm-out Leverage: Every time a missile flies near a Qatari gas field, the value of HE1’s Tanzanian "Primary Helium" asset increases. Potential partners are now looking for "Political Diversification," making a deal more likely.

CO2 Commercialization: The company is still on track for CO2 liquefaction in H1 2026. Adding a second revenue stream in this high-inflation environment would be a significant de-risking event.

With a market cap still around ~£8M, the valuation doesn’t yet seem to reflect a “ready-to-run” operation with near-term revenue potential. That said, production is still in its early ramp-up phase, so the key catalyst remains consistent output and a confirmed first gold pour — that’s when the current skepticism discount is most likely to shift.

My understanding, Coco, is that these details are coming in shortly and I am assuming that the off take agreement will couple that detail...

Don't mistake a quiet tape for a weak story. The 5-compound patent is the concrete foundation being poured. You don't cheer for concrete drying, but you can't build a skyscraper without it.

Wow thats quite some change there for him -

oh well back to HEX - they done super well with their business for sure...

He should come back to HE1 and drive the PR!

Are yes it was Minch not Bo - I see Minch has left HEX - I wonder what happened there?

All fair points — and I agree there could well be significant value in Rukwa that the market isn’t fully pricing in yet. If that comes through via a farm-out or reserves upgrade, it could change the picture quite quickly.

That said, the tension for shareholders is still around timing and funding strategy. If the asset is that valuable, then raising repeatedly at sub-1p levels is effectively locking in dilution before that value is realised. I get that debt may not always have been available, and prioritising Rukwa or accelerating Galactica could justify some of the decisions — but it does come back to whether the balance has been right.

Your point on allocating debt capacity to Rukwa is interesting — that would at least suggest a more strategic approach going forward rather than continued reliance on equity.

I think you’re right though — the farm-out outcome will be the real tell. That’s when we’ll see whether the underlying value matches the dilution shareholders have had to absorb.

That’s a fair take, and I agree there could be undisclosed value or strategic reasons around Rukwa that we’re not fully seeing yet. But if that’s the case, you’d expect the board to be more disciplined on dilution — because issuing shares at sub-1p levels effectively transfers that potential upside away from existing shareholders to new entrants.

If they genuinely believe in significant underlying value, the question then becomes: why not lean more on debt, partnerships, or staged funding post-milestones, rather than repeated discounted equity raises? Even a small shift in approach could have protected a lot more shareholder value.

So I guess the real question is — are we seeing a deliberate strategy based on confidence in the asset, or just the easiest route to funding in the short term?

Fair point on the timeline — closer to 2 years than 1. But putting that aside, a genuine question for the board and shareholders: HEX has reached production with around 195m shares, while HE1 is sitting at roughly 10bn shares after 5 years and still progressing its main asset. So what’s really driving the difference here — geology, execution, or funding strategy? And more importantly, could HE1 have taken a less dilutive route, or was this level of dilution always inevitable? Interested to hear how others see it.

Wouldn’t it be great if HE1 had the same leadership style and execution capability as Helix (HEX)?

HEX has gone from IPO to production in roughly a year, while HE1 has been working on its assets since 2020 and is still not at that stage. Bo Sears, now CEO of Helix, was previously involved with Helium One — and the contrast in outcomes is hard to ignore.

Execution comparison:

HEX: Delivered on time and on budget, drilled, found gas, built a plant, and moved into production

HE1: Ongoing delays, repeated fundraises, and heavy dilution

Capital structure:

HEX: ~195 million shares

HE1: ~10 billion shares

That difference alone tells a story about how each company has been funded and managed. HEX has progressed without heavily diluting early shareholders, while HE1 has expanded its share count dramatically and is still seeking a partner in Tanzania after several years.

The market is rewarding HEX because they’ve delivered what they said they would — operational progress, production, and discipline on capital. HE1 may well have the stronger geology (higher helium concentrations), but geology alone doesn’t create shareholder value — execution does.

Right now, HEX looks like a company building momentum and credibility, while HE1 is still trying to prove it can convert potential into results.

It would be great if Tanzania could start popping up as a supply solution in the media - so far I haven't read anything about Helium + Tanzania -

Helium shortage has started impacting tech supply chains, execs say - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/helium-shortage-has-started-impacting-tech-supply-chains-execs-say-2026-03-26/

Lets not forget that in late 2024, the company shifted focus (and funds) to the Galactica-Pegasus project in Colorado. While they successfully achieved "First Gas" there in December 2025, it came at the cost of stalling the Tanzanian asset. The money raised from shareholders for "Tanzania development" was effectively used to fund the US entry and the $4M annual board overhead. We’re now 18 months into a 'strategic pause' that looks more like a slow walk to a Farm-out because the bank account is empty.

September 2024 they officially announced it had submitted the Mining Licence (ML) application for the 480 km2 Southern Rukwa project. During this entire period, there has been ZERO new exploration drilling in Tanzania. The only physical work was the "ESP experiment" (pump test) at the existing Itumbula West-1 well.

Panmure Liberum is out with a 3.6p price target, but let’s be real: they are the company’s joint broker. Their job is to find the silver lining in a 10-billion-share cloud. They’re calling the £4.5M raise a 'strategic bridge' to a Farm-out, but to a retail holder, it looks more like a 'survival toll' paid at a 17.6% discount.

If the '24/7 production' in Colorado were actually going to move the needle, the broker wouldn't need to put out a note defending a 0.6p placing. They are protecting the institutional entry point, while we wait for a Farm-out that has been 'imminent' for 18 months.

In Tanzania, signing ceremonies for major projects (like the Panda Hill Niobium project signed in March 2026) are massive PR events attended by the Minerals Minister.

The Contrast: If a Niobium project is getting a ceremony and Helium One isn't, it indicates where the Ministry’s priorities lie. If HE1 were a "Tier 1" priority, that ceremony would have happened months ago to signal Tanzania’s entry into the global helium market.

Yes a very low skillset required to issue 10 billion stocks and have a 55m market cap.

The Tanzanian Mining Commission has recently (March 2026) signaled a crackdown on "fronting" and "placeholder" licenses.

The Logic: Governments don't want companies "camping" on 480 km2 of land if they don't have the cash to develop it.

The Conclusion: The delay of the ceremony suggests the government may be waiting for HE1 to prove they have the $100M+ needed for full-scale development. By only raising £4.5M for "working capital," the board is showing the government they aren't ready to build—which makes the government hesitant to hold a celebratory ceremony.

The company was awarded the ML in July 2025, but as of March 2026, the Regulatory Framework Agreements (RFAs) and the Shareholders' Agreement for the joint venture company, Songwe Helium Ltd, are still being "finalized."

The Significance: Without the signing ceremony, the specific fiscal terms—tax holidays, export duties, and the exact mechanics of the 17% Government Free Carry—are not legally locked in.

The Risk: Until those pens hit the paper, the Tanzanian government can technically renegotiate terms, especially if they see HE1 is struggling to fund the project or if another "Tier 1" partner shows interest.