Member Info for thetriplestar

Yes I think Rift will make some good profits on AIM

It's a classic resource-market 'shell game': let the retail crowd fund the failure, then use the rescue funds to own the success.

The smart money waited until we were on the brink of bankruptcy, stepped in at 0.25p to 'save' the company etc etc - we all know the funding rounds - do you reckon these people were funding the rounds? Would have made millions from us already....

Smart guys - they let us take all the geological risk and fund the early heavy lifting, only to step back in with RIFT once the basin was de-risked. Now they get to chase the 'sweet spots' with a clean structure and fresh cash, effectively riding our co-pioneering coattails for free.

Rift is being led by the same people (Neil Herbert, Tom Abraham-James) who built HE1.....for years, HE1 was the "only game in town." Now, HE1 have a nimble, aggressive neighbour with no debt and a point to prove. If Rift finds commercial flow first, the "Unique Play" excuse for HE1’s delays won't hold water anymore.

HE1 is struggling under 10.2 billion shares and "legacy fatigue." Rift is listing with a tight structure and £8M in the bank specifically for 3D seismic. They are doing the "hard science" we should have done two years ago.

Noble now have the "war chest" to drill an offset well to Mbelele-1 in Q2 2026. This well will target the shallow "gas cap" zone (~125m) where they previously saw helium concentrations up to 2.46%.

Noble Helium has obtained a firm commitment to raise $12 million via a two-stage institutional placement. Shares are being offered at $0.029 each, which is notably lower than the company's trading price just weeks earlier—a 40.8% markdown from the last closing price of A$0.049 on March 31, 2026.

This capital injection ensures the company can proceed with its planned exploration drilling in the second quarter of 2026. However, issuing such a large number of new shares—especially in the second tranche—will significantly dilute existing shareholders' stakes. This dilution is the trade-off for securing the funds needed to advance the North Rukwa project.

Let’s be honest, the Rift Helium IPO is a massive "Check Your Ego" moment for the HE1 board. While we’ve been funding the "Colorado Pivot" to cover the silence in Tanzania, our original founders are next door at Rift, claiming a 19 Bcf P50 resource on the land HE1 relinquished.

HE1 relinquished a number of Prospecting Licences across parts of the basin in 2024–2025, largely framed as capital discipline and focusing on core assets.

Shortly after, Rift Helium (formerly Kidunda) appears to have picked up similar ground.

The same names keep appearing:

Neil Herbert

Thomas Abraham-James

Both were instrumental in building HE1, and are now involved with Rift in various capacities. That overlap is what’s catching my attention.

HE1: ~10bn shares, legacy dilution, ongoing funding needs

Rift: clean structure, fresh capital, smaller share base

So effectively, similar basin exposure but through very different capital structures.

If some of that relinquished ground had future potential (e.g. with 3D seismic or different funding), should that value have been retained within HE1 — or at least structured so HE1 shareholders had some exposure to it?

Because right now, it can look like:

HE1 funds early basin work and data

Some ground is dropped to conserve cash

A new vehicle with overlapping founders picks it up with a cleaner structure

Interested to hear how others see it — especially in the context of a potential farm-out and wider basin consolidation.

Interesting post CHILLI300 — there’s definitely a pattern of the same individuals (Neil Herbert, Thomas Abraham-James etc.) being involved across multiple helium assets, and that’s not unusual in AIM/resource markets where experienced operators back several plays.

Where it gets more interesting is whether this is actually a coordinated basin strategy or just opportunistic recycling of assets through different vehicles. There’s no clear evidence of a single consolidation plan, but equally, if multiple assets in the Rukwa Basin are connected, it could make the region more attractive to a larger strategic partner looking for scale rather than a single licence.

So the real question for me is: does value ultimately come from HE1 on a standalone basis, or from a broader basin-level deal or consolidation play? That’s probably what the market is trying to figure out.

Ok I found /read this: (thoughts?)

The Upepo licence covers 283 sq km within the Rukwa Basin, an area that has attracted growing attention following a series of nearby discoveries that have helped establish a working helium system. For Rift, proximity to these finds is central to its investment case, underpinning claims that basin risk has been materially reduced compared with earlier entrants.

An independent competent person’s report by NSAI estimates a gross unrisked P50 resource of 19bn cubic feet of helium on the flagship block, with a mean estimate of 41bn cubic feet. While such figures remain contingent on successful drilling, they place the project among the more sizeable undeveloped helium prospects globally.

The company argues that its later entry into the basin confers an advantage. By incorporating data and lessons from earlier exploration campaigns, Rift believes it can pursue a more targeted and capital-efficient strategy, focusing on higher-probability prospects rather than broad acreage testing.

Do you reckon they get all their data from HE1 works?

“We believe Rift offers investors direct exposure to helium exploration upside in the Rukwa basin, a basin that is now proven to host a working helium system. Our strategic position, alongside adjacent discoveries, combined with our third-mover advantage, allows us to pursue a smarter, more targeted and capital-efficient exploration strategy,” says CEO Charlie FitzRoy.

“With a CPR highlighting a gross, unrisked P50 prospective resource estimate of approximately 19-billion cubic feet recoverable helium on our flagship licence, clear near-term catalysts in 3D seismic and drilling, and a board and management team with deep helium and capital markets experience, we believe Rift is well positioned as we move toward admission and to execute on its strategy after IPO,” he adds.

There is definitely money to be made in the Rift IPO, but you have to be careful not to get blinded by the 'new' factor. Rift is a clean ship with £8M in the bank and a CEO who is talking a big game about 3D seismic.

The play here is timing. If you can catch the first-day IPO momentum, you might see a quick 20-30% gain as people move away from the 'dilution fatigue' of HE1. But remember: Rift has zero production and has never flowed a single molecule of gas. HE1 is the 'Battle-Scarred Veteran' that actually has trailers leaving the site in Colorado. If you’re looking for a quick trade, RIFT is the play; if you’re looking for a 10p 'North Star' based on a massive resource, HE1 still holds the better cards - they just need to stop printing shares.

The 'missing pieces' aren't mysteries; they are engineering hurdles. We have the gas (5.4% - 9.2%), but we don't have a way to keep the water out of the straw. The Karoo aquifer is 'leaking' into our basement discovery, and we are using 1970s-style 2D maps to find 21st-century solutions.

You hit the nail on the head: 'Unique' is just a fancy word for 'Nobody else wanted to try this because it’s a headache.' We aren't just drilling for gas; we are trying to invent a new way to mine.

The data room is quiet because the 'Big Fish' are doing the math on that 16,400 barrels of water. They love the 9.2% concentration, but they hate the 'Olympic pool' disposal costs. We are sitting in the data room waiting for a partner who is brave enough to believe that the 99.9% purity in Colorado and the 9.2% grade in Tanzania are worth the 'Unique' struggle. Until then, our 'Unique Play' is just a very expensive stack of paper.

You’ve summed up the Rukwa struggle perfectly. HE1 and NHE have proven the helium is there, but they haven't proven it's easy to get out. Lorna is now chasing the faults because the reservoirs didn't behave.

Rift Helium is coming in with a 'Third Mover' arrogance, claiming that 3D seismic is the magic bullet HE1 was too cheap to use. It’s a bold claim. If they use that 3D data to find a dry trap on the land HE1 walked away from, it will be the ultimate 'I told you so' in mining history. But until someone actually flows gas without a massive water headache, the entire basin - HE1 and Rift included - remains a geological jigsaw puzzle with half the pieces missing.

It’s a classic case of 'one man's trash is another man's treasure.' Rift Helium is absolutely using land that HE1 previously held. Lorna relinquished the Eastern Rukwa blocks in 2024 to save $177,000 in fees and focus on the discovery at ITW-1. Rift has now picked up that same ground, claiming that with 3D seismic, they can prove those 'low prospectivity' blocks are actually part of the same massive system. Rift is essentially 'squatting' on the edges of our discovery. They are betting that HE1 was too cash-strapped to see the full picture. If Rift finds gas on the land we gave up, it will be a major embarrassment for the board; but if they fail, it proves Lorna was right to dump the 'dead wood' and focus on the Mining Licence.

I get the frustration - 2 weeks feels like a year in AIM-land. But look at it this way: Nick Tulloch has approx 3% "skin in the game." He wants that RNS out more than anyone. If he’s holding back, it’s because he’s making sure the numbers are bulletproof. An RNS that says "We poured 10oz at 98% purity" is worth 10x more than a vague "We saw some yellow stuff in the pan" tweet.

Https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/solgold-s-strategic-overhaul-a-new-chapter-for-ecuador-s-copper-gold/69083356

worth a read