Member Info for Therosy1

Saba Capital seem to be "activist investors" hoping to take advantage of shares trading at a large discount to NAV and/or where the dividend percentage is high.

Good luck to them as far as the dividend here goes. I doubt if they will make much there.

But with the number of shares traded recently being a high percentage of the issued share capital, it is an encouraging sign that "Professional" Investors are waking up to the potential gain here. Let's hope so.

GLA

Perhaps. They only hold a small percentage of ordinary shares plus in excess of 5% of the value of issued share capital by way of a Swap that seems to expire in a few months.

It is still, overall, a series of interesting developments.

The Estate of William Black has increased its holding to 6.1% representing some 17 million shares in VSL as at 23rd June.

Four big chunks of shares bought yesterday (Wednesday) totalling 14.5 million could be the Estate back for more. I wonder what they or Armstrong Investments or their Investment Manager, First Equity, know that we mortals don't.

Watch this space!

GLA

I am also disappointed with the news of the dividend.

It is interesting that the "Share News" states the 1p dividend is a cut from the final dividend last year - when it was 1.5p after three quarterly 2p payments. It annoys me when commentators such as this give half facts.

They also say that Dogfish and Big Rock were "sold". Incorrect reporting. As we know, only the ITCs have been sold. GSF still own the assets that are Dogfish and Big Rock.

I am becoming my grandfather - grumbling old man!

This from the 2024 Annual Report;

"Dividends

"The Company reviews the dividend policy annually to ensure its continued suitability. Following this year's review, the Board has decided to adjust the Company's dividend policy to better align it with the construction schedule of the portfolio. The Company will target a 7.0p dividend for the 2024/25 financial year, consistent with investors' expectations based on the current NAV. Any payment exceeding this amount will be tied to cash generation from the underlying portfolio.

"The target dividend payments will also be weighted to the fourth quarter (one pence paid per quarter for the first three quarters and a four pence dividend for the final quarter), as the Investment Manager anticipates that the ITC payment will be received. This policy adjustment reflects the maturing nature of the Company and sets it well to continue to provide long-term value for shareholders."

Two things to note.

1. The final dividend COULD be more than 4p depending on "cash generation from the underlying portfolio.".

2. The fourth quarter dividend appears dependant on receiving the ITC payment.

Speculation will soon be replaced by reality - probably by the end of next week. What shall we have to discuss after that?

GLA

It's just after 2pm and this seems to be making a significant move back up. Let's see how the day ends.

The mind boggles!

Shareholders have suffered stratospheric write-downs over many, many months - years even after the Investment Manager pocketed millions in "performance fees" that were paid on asset valuations that turned out to be pie in the sky.

Yet the Directors have received overwhelming support from shareholders in the latest vote. Two have over 99% support from those who voted. All have been re-elected. Shareholders have experienced the majority of their investment vanishing into thin air but can't even register a protest vote?

As I said, the mind boggles!!

Good luck with that ToD.

I was hoping to get in with some more before the ex-div using the capital return from VSL but that is only arriving today. But I was looking at the price sub-45p. The current price excluding the current dividend is making me think about it.

Morning all!

I have been reading the unaudited report and admit to being underwhelmed by it.

My specific comments:

"Profit for the period of £0.4 million (31 March 2024: £9.9 million). The decrease primarily reflects a reduction in loan interest received from solar assets with equity-like exposure."

"The Company's investment portfolio performed well during the period. The Company's focus on availability-based projects has meant the portfolio has continued to generate predictable revenues despite the volatile economic backdrop."

I am having difficulty reconciling both these statements. On the one hand, loan interest received from solar assets is poor but the investment portfolio performed well and generated predictable revenues. Was the solar disappointment predicted?

"Power price volatility in the near-term forward curve remains a driver of volatility..."

This also conflicts with the statement of "predictable" revenues. I find it hard to believe that they can successfully predict such volatility.

"In January 2025, the Company completed the sale of its interests in two operational onshore wind farms, with a combined generating capacity of 28MW. The total consideration, including contingent amounts, represented approximately 88% of the assets' valuations as reflected in the net asset value at 30 September 2024."

This bothers me. While they complain about the share price discount to NAV and are actively trying to do what they can to reduce it, they are happily selling off assets at a 12% discount to stated valuations. Selling silverware at such a discount does not say much for (possible) trash valuations. Maybe the Market is right to attach a steep discount to the remaining assets.

"The persistent material share price discount to the Company's NAV per share continues to represent an attractive proposition for incoming investors. For existing investors, the Company and Investment Adviser remain committed to taking actions needed to improve the Company's share price rating."

I am not sure that I would consider investing new money into this based on what this half-year report contains. The percentage dividend is currently attractive, yes, but for how much longer? Loan interest income may have been £34.4 million but after expenses, there is not enough to cover the cost of dividends at £30.4 million. Unrealised losses on asset prices are one thing. Realised losses as mentioned above are another.

The jury is out for me. I continue to hold for the dividend but will be watching for any signs that this might be cut in future. 7p is "baked in" for the year to September 2025.

GLA DYOR etc

Ex-div date is the 12th, as you say. Record date 13th. You can buy today and still get this dividend.

Ex date means just that.

Morning all!

There seems to be a lot of selling going on today and probably at the end of last week.

Is this a reflection of the possible collapse of any bid for GSF? Or perhaps those "in the know" have decided that the dividend announcement coming soon (possibly on the 20th) will disappoint?

Of 6.25p per share payable 29th August. Ex-div 24th July.

Quarterly payment up from 6.20p.

Growth is fine if that's what you are looking for. But you wouldn't get growth from an annuity or an increase in your income. HFEL at least is consistent with increases in dividend payouts.

Each to their own.

BTW - I don't own Foresight. I have never owned Foresight.

I might be wrong but it would worry me that they are spending time and resources on failed bids. Are they a bunch of "chancers" hoping to pick up distressed assets on the cheap? Or do they not have an organic expansion plan? Have they made any successful bids in the past and if so, how have the acquired company's shareholders been treated?

Anything under 120p is unacceptable, in my humble opinion.

I sold my original holding in August 2022 for about 122p and got back in in July 2023 at 96p. My average price is now about 85p.

The dividend being paid is currently about 8.5p per annum and this is stated as being fully covered by profits (agreed that the term depends on what is included - or excluded). Would you sell your Company for a mere 10 times earnings? I wouldn't. I would hold out for 15 to 20 times future expected net profits giving a minimum of 120p.

I am happy to keep it like it is and bank the quarterly dividends.

Yet another shambles of a report.

Although "The Company and Investment Manager are disappointed...", the report is yet more testament to their collective total incompetence bordering on negligent use of OUR money. More money has been wasted to prop up WeFox and Razor Group in an attempt to protect the value of the investments. Correct me if I am wrong - but isn't the carrying value now written down to below the value it was before they tried the same trick several months ago?

It seems to me that the "asset backed lending" strategy has been a wholesale failure. Surely the idea of lending backed by assets is that the underlying assets have a value that can be realised to repay the debt if needed. No! This Board and Investment Manager constantly write down the value and/or convert the debt into equity (paying no interest) and then write the investment down. And then give them even more money when needed.

The report goes on later to proudly announce the (relatively) minute realised gains achieved on disposal of some equity positions. Thank you for that but it would be more meaningful to learn what the realised LOSSES were on disposal of the $9,645,181 assets, again proudly announced as being sold at the 31st December 2024 value. I could go back through previous reports to find out the information for some of the assets but others are below the level at which they would have featured specifically because they would not have been in the top 10.

Yes, the report is disappointing for what it tells us but it fails to give the whole picture of the month on month, quarter on quarter, year on year incompetence of the investment strategy that has seen values decimated. We are left with a rump of assets that, by their own admission, will be difficult to sell and because of their failed strategy of replacing income bearing loans with worthless equity, we face the prospect of miserable annual dividends rather than quarterly.

We shareholders suffer while the Board will continue to be paid their Director fees at the same rate as when the Company was multiple times more valuable and the Investment Manager will still be paid to enrich everyone except us shareholders.

Rant over for today.

As much as the (unrealised) capital loss hurts, as long as the dividends keep rolling in, the share price is largely irrelevant to me.

Not that I would say "no" to a buyout at a share price close to the current NAV.

@HappyRob, I would expect that the share price will remain around 15p plus or minus a few percentage points until there is any news from the Company.

This has been on a downward path for some time based on a constant revision down of underlying asset prices. Whilst there has been a significant reduction in values, the Market has applied a near 50% discount to the valuations. The future share price movement will depend on whether the remaining assets are further written down or realised at or near book value as was the case giving rise to the release of capital this/next month.

The holdings of debt could easily be written down or converted into worthless equity (previous history of this), further eroding interest income. Equity holdings could be written down to zero. Alternatively, there could be a sudden burst of IPOs that dramatically elevate NAV.

In the meantime, costs including hefty (mis)Management Fees continue to be paid.

Have no illusions, this is a risky investment and will NOT be returning to a share price in the 20-30 pence range any time soon. ALL IN MY HUMBLE OPINION - DYOR AND MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS.

GLA

Krustysmegma, London Stock Exchange are showing this as "XCR", being ex capital reduction I imagine.

It would certainly make sense to use the same principle as ex-div being the day before the "record date".

"Do you have a suggestion?"

Just stop responding.

Can you two just get a room and sort yourselves out?