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My opinion on numbers
Let’s say the first KPop event nets LVCG £2m (which is conservative IMO) and that this is replicated at each subsequent event (again conservative as they will learn from the first) and that we take the mid-range forecasts for numbers of events next year of 6. That would be £12m revenue just from KPop. Add Bricklive, Formula E festival ( which we know will be easily in excess of £1m pa ), Volvo Ocean Race, Cycle Tour, Wine and Food festivals we could easily see profits as big as our current MCAP. Personally, I think it could even exceed it next year but don’t want to be called too Bullish. However, if we even made something like £15m with a conservative P/E for this sector of 20 (some events / entertainments companies have been as high as 40) that values LVCG at £300m….only 15x where we currently sit!
If we did manage to do 8 and make £3m per event, that could easily be £25m+ profit and £500m MCAP…..just your £2.50 per share! ( I’ve gone all super Bullish here I know)
This is a steal at these levels
Finally, if I get time later, I’ll write up the justification on why I think we could easily make in excess of £2m per concert, based on known data (ticket sales and guaranteed merchandising) and assumptions on streaming, merchandising and not forgetting sponsorship. I think this is a very conservative level TBH!
I thought it might be useful to summarise what was said yesterday and try and give my opinion as a Long-term, large investor of LVCG. I realise I am probably biased (even if unconsciously ) but have tried to make this as factual as possible. Comments in brackets are my thoughts, not from what was said from the BoD. I will then reply to my own post with my thoughts on the numbers ( post too long to have as one )
KPop
Ticket sales: 43k for Saturday and 21k for Sunday. SBS going to get artists to do some promotional material. Hope for another 10k sold by the time the show is on. 10% of these sales are VIP tickets (€288 each from the website – grossing €1.84m alone)
Mechandising: Deliberately small online presence at the moment but the partner, Nylon, have guaranteed $500k for onsite merchandising. Given the supply chain issues from China, to get any light sticks etc to the event in less than 3 months was some effort. Future events will have better merchandising.
Streaming: Doors selected as they not only have great partners such as NEP (who do the Olympics, World Cup and work with SBS) they offer great analytical insights which will be useful for future events. Packages offering behind the scenes access to each artist will also be sold. (Given the fan base, this could be very popular and lucrative.). Doors do all the marketing for the event as part of their fees. Revenue from streaming should be announced by the end of the month
Korea festival: Onsite location shown, just outside the stadium but in the complex. Tickets required to enter (Korean government covering the costs, so another guaranteed profit making feature).
Mentioned than next festivals normally take 3 years before they become profitable, so they have “broken the mould” here!
Suggested 2-3 concerts may happen this year, hinted that one is very close to being signed and that next year we could see anything from 4-8 !!!
In DC’s opinion KPop.Flex is significantly valuable, multiple times current MCAP (notwithstanding all the other streams)
Bricklive
Demand increasing all the time and new Brickosaurs set being built to meet booking requests. The event in Battersea will be followed by others. Marketing started a little early (can’t recall why) but expect demand to pick up for ticket sales in July and August
(DC sounded the most Excited about Bricklive I have heard him in a long time)
StART
Event to be held in Seoul in Aug
General
Independent research note to be issued in June at time of the 2021 results, including forward projections
4 - 8 Concerts next year !! WOW !!!!
10% ticket sales are Premium Package too. This equates to 10% ticket sales giving £620k to LVCG on the numbers DC has just mentioned. The other 90% likely to give £600k or more too. Add that to the guaranteed merchandising also known then have it CONFIRMED that this will easily bring in more than £1.5m . And that's WITHOUT streaming, sponsorship and more sales etc.
SP is still ridiculously low
It is true TrueInvest!!! Read the RNS
This has gone up by ~300% this year, so a small breather isn't unusual. Most of the people buying also really don't have a clue on the real value being materialized now. Whilst it is understandable that they have sold and taken very nice profits, the real rerate is yet to come IMO.
:-) That made me LOL but I don't think for one minute it will be the case now!
TinTin, I know for a fact you have had an exchange with DC, as I have spoken to him about it.
However, I also know that you don't know details other than DC is very excited, that he flew to Korea and that there is an investor call on 4th May. The rest is pure conjecture.
Please don't lecture people not having a clue on what is going on behind the scenes as it wasn't long ago you were predicting 1p rather than 5p! I'm a long term holder, unfortunately still heavily underwater but I have every reason to think I'll be in profit by the end of Q2
Whilst all the current attention is understandably focused on LCSE and KPop.Flex, Bricklive is doing very nicely and flying under the radar. This contract is worth ~£250k alone
https://www.metrofamilymagazine.com/events/bricklive-animal-paradise-at-the-okc-zoo/
No RNS yet
I agree with MB10 on a lot of things LVCG related. I wouldn't, however, call the general MM movement "manipulation", rather they occasionally "fish" for stock by creating fear.
Rather they than catching sharks, the usually catch FOMO Sheep!
Do I think LVCG has suffered marker manipulation / abuse. Absolutely. I dont think it's the MMs at fault though rather than "leaky" or bent brokers. Pre-selling into raises is always a popular one!
So good a point I made "MMs can take positions" twice :-)
Generally, I would agree that the vast majority is automated on a share with this size of MCAP. However, do I believe it can be worth (and does) have manual intervention from time to time? Absolutely; for the same reason I still have to pick up the phone to Shard to trade when I use them rather than when I use ii. People can still make money using market knowledge or instinct.
MMs can take positions. If it were purely supply v demand, we wouldn't be down 3% today - there have now been more buys than sells. MMs can take positions
I agree with a lot of what you have said Bennster but as an ex-market maker, they can (and do) move prices without any buy or sell pressure. You can see this when buys out weigh sells yet the price drops.
I wouldn't necessarily call it manipulation but they can drop the bid to entice "panic" sellers and hope to pick up cheap stock, in readiness for buying pressure they expect to come (or for a worked buy order etc).
This can, of course backfire, when the ask also drops and people buy into it (like we have seen this afternoon)
All part of the fun and games but as you say if you believe in the fundamentals and hold medium to long-term, just sit back and watch.
I'm normally the real bull on here but 19m from KPop is not going to happen. It should be millions but far less than 19m.
My view is that Bricklive should cover all Opex for all of LVCG, maybe even make a small profit alone. With KPop, Formula E, Cycle Race, Volvo Ocean race etc, we should make profit of say £5m (and that's a conservative estimate). A realistic PE of 20x would give a MCAP of £100m or so. With extra warrants to be exercised etc this would equate to a SP of ~50p. If further KPop concerts are added it could easily be much more.
Even though the SP has risen by more than 3 fold this year, it is still a bargain IMO
Nice to see you so positive TinTin. After all it wasnt that long ago you were predicting this would be 1p rather than 5!! :-)
Glad you have seen the light
This is still a very good price IMO. In January it could have been had at 3p, so a great opportunity missed by many but with expected revenue and profit to be in millions rather than 100k's, this is still very, very undervalued.
No real catalyst date other than another investor call scheduled for 4 May. 14/15 May is the KPop.Flex festival, which is an undoubted big earner.
However, the market hasn't really understood the fact we have had a successful CapeTown cycle tour event, numerous Bricklive contracts (new and repeat), a monthly retainer for the Formula E race scheduled for early next year, Volvo Ocean race etc etc.
KPop is a big earner but there is more than one string to this bow!
At an equivalent diluted value Bricklive alone had us (pre-covid) at a price ~40-45p and we know Op Cost have been slashed since then. Add LCSE and I really don't see why this wont be back to historical highs. Perhaps not this year but definitely possibly early 2023.
10 bags from these levels seems like a very good opportunity to me!
Moving quickly on pretty small volume. Mms cant have any stock. This could boom!
Yes, very! Could be in interesting week!
Exactly!
It wasn't a dilution it was an exercise of warrants that had already been announced. Very different!
There are warrants exercisable at 5p and 10p (some expiring in June)
People have seen the RNS, panicked and sold
Their loss for not doing proper research