Member Info for theoryman

@BDSU, didn’t want PUTUP to be alone wrt something like this.

It is a well known fact amongst mathematicians that 2/3rds of the population do not understand fractions, whilst half of the other 40% struggle with percentages.

From the Spreaex site, “70% of retail investors lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. “

Let’s hope that some of them have a track record of being in the other 39% :)

@Roxi, I think you are both correct.

The entitlement reserves in the ground can be allocated value but not directly through entitled ownership.

They are in the ground and are therefore owned by the people of Iraq, on the day after the contract expires those left there have zero value to the company.

In the meantime the company are entitled through the PSC to try and get them out of the ground to the surface, where at some defined point they are entitled to take ownership.

Allocating value to unknown volumes of reserves, of unknown hydrocarbon type and quality, with unknown ease of removal etc. over a time limited period lends itself to highly sophisticated mathematically modelling - aka making the best guess you can :)

@PS4321, imagine you were the Iraqi PM heading up a Coalition government which made herding feral cats seem simple :)

Your own FSC has ruled that the PSCs are illegal.

EVERY previous Iraqi government has refused to issue PSCs on the grounds that it is a fundamental breach of the people’s rights - you cannot share with an IOC what you do not own.

You decide to issue the following statement.

Look lads, lets’s be sensible, someone will have to accept these PSCs are legal at some time and get the oil flowing to the economic benefit of everyone. I have decided to do that today.

How long do you think your tenure would last to the nearest minute?

@JlM, how does this Hedge Fund/Shorting suppression idea work?

“These hedges are trying to suppress the market pre takeover , allowing their Oilco clients to further increase toeholds as cheaply as possible.”

How do you stop others taking advantage of the suppressed price that is being created, buying in bulk having spotted the extra value paid for by someone else, therefore driving the price up and raining on your parade?

Why can’t they simply be layering in Shorts as the price heads up towards a key Resistance region circa 125p?

In other words, nothing more than the opposite of someone layering in Longs as it recently dropped down towards the Low 80s Support region?

@Jrlomax, APIKUR members are owed nearly $1 billion in arrears.

The FGI have previously repeatedly stated that they will not pay off any debts arising from where he KRG had signed contracts without the FGI’s prior knowledge and approval - so that probably rules them out of coughing up dosh for the PSCs :)

Under the Budget Law the KRG have up to five years to get their finances back in order and pay off these debts and that was before the pipeline was closed.

One won’t pay, the other can’t pay now, so where do you think the money is going to come from before exporting through the pipeline restarts?

@itsaponi, are you assuming ithat Short is the ONLY investment they hold?

Why can’t it be one of many and they are focussing on the total return from the portfolio under various outcomes and not those from the individual components?

Closer to only having one investment, how about they have diversified and got two :)

They are trading a pair, short GKP and long Genel for instance.

On the question of do they know more, probably but even if they don’t they employ people who ask questions.

If there is good understanding, does it necessarily mean there will be a quick solution. What if both sides fully understand the other’s and realise they are still miles apart?

Even if he has a personal commitment to meeting APIKUR’s demands, has his Coalition the political clout to bring it about?

And on what time scale? Until December’s elections, the O&G Law going through?

Given that the role of a politician is to do what’s necessary to keep themselves in power, is it better or worse for him to deal with APIKUR now or later, and if later, how much later?

@JlM, that Twitter link is the problem!

All it does is repeat the journalist’s summary in both English and Arabic. It does not contain any reference to the quotes which were used to derive the summary.

Is the RUDAW interview available to listen to online?

I have already listened to his one from last week, nothing in that to support the extreme quote being attributed him now.

Thanks for clarifying that, it’s the one that contains the APIKUR announcement asking for clarity.

“APIKUR reiterates that, even if the ITP reopens, the member companies of APIKUR will not be in a position to produce oil for pipeline exports until it is clear how International Oil Companies (‘IOCs’) will be paid for their contractual entitlements of oil already sold and delivered for export in the past and for future sales of such oil for export. APIKUR members are currently owed nearly $1 billion in overdue and unpaid arrears.“

Is there anyway you can use your following to ask him about the RUDAW interview? Seems that a journalist has produced a summary of an interview which is not supported by any quote by Caggins from within the interview.

From the journalistic point of view it’s either deliberate or it’s incompetence; or it’s not and Caggins has gone rogue :)

Just been sent an image of 111notout’s Twitter feed.

Tweet references Nice to have support in high places.

On the right hand side is a list of Avatars, one belonging to Myles Coggins III.

Against it is the word “following”, which way around does that work?

111notout is following MC III or is MC III following 111notout?

As for that last point I am not saying it is not in the mix at the moment.

It could well be being used as leverage on other points that do get settled.

Eventually though its power could wain and it actually gets in the way.

What you don’t want is its removal from discussions triggering a renegotiation of points where it was used as leverage :)

Headline reflected in the main story, better than some sites :)

“Shafaq News / Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar declared on Thursday that the crude oil pipelines from the Kurdistan Region to Turkish ports are ready to operate starting from next Wednesday. “

Was supposed to be this week, some unexplained slippage to next Wednesday.

“He confirmed that Turkey is gearing up to commence oil shipments.”

First time we have heard confirmation of this IMO, yet another necessary step in finally getting the oil exported.

“In a related context, an Iraqi oil official, quoted by Reuters two days ago, stated that discussions aimed at resuming Iraqi oil exports through a pipeline passing through Turkey are still ongoing.”

All that’s left now is confirmation of pipeline fees, volume throughput, API etc of the export mix, do the T&Cs of existing energy agreement between KRG and Turkey still stand plus APIKUR and the FGI have reached agreement on debt repayment, future payments and sanctity of contracts.

I have deliberately left out the Arbitration dispute because everything else is pipeline related, discussions about that could continue with the pipeline flowing. In fact if this was the only sticking point it would be madness, even in that part of the world, to turn down revenue that could settle the dispute.

Historically it has gone from (Brent-21) to (Brent-22) to (Brent-23) to KBT based pricing just before the pipeline closure which equated to (Brent-35) ish over a few months.

With the pipeline closed it’s been fixed at circa $30 I.e. independent of Brent.

Now for the $6 a barrel bit, probably a good time for an imagined conversation between a somewhat bemused APIKUR representative and someone from the Federal Gov.

AP We keep reading about this “cost of production” idea, can you tell us what it means?

FG No.

AP Where does the $6 figure come from?

FG It’s an average.

AP An average of what?

FG The cost of production of some fields in Iraq.

AP Which fields?

FG Not telling you.

AP How many fields?

FG Not telling you.

AP Are they a representative sample which match the fields in Kurdistan?

FG Hang on I know the text language for this, ROFPMSL.

AP So I have no idea what it represents, how it was derived or its relevance to the discussions about the PSCs. Seems a somewhat arbitrary figure derived from probably the most opaque methodology I have ever come across.

FG Thank you, such kind words.

And we get his usual response when he can’t provide the evidence required.

Poor attempt at justification re them being in the public domain. Not surprising that really, given that someone posted it on ADVFN and he copied it here - an extremely limited domain but it does exist!

Where aren’t the quotes? On RUDAW, even though he implied they were and not on APIKUR’s site either.

Finally we get the attack on the poster.

Anyway he must have something going for him, he gets more Recs than I do :)

@Keldar, could be worded better is an understatement, there are obviously some missing words.

I took the first paragraph as setting the tone I.e. the need for clarity re back payments and future sales and contracts.

I pictured the article as reading something along the lines of:-

The petroleum association stressed that even if the Iraq-Turkey pipeline were to reopen, the member companies would not be “in a position to produce oil for pipeline exports” until all three of those concerns had been addressed and resolved to everyone’s satisfaction.

That would fit in with their stated position but I could be wrong.

One thing I have no doubt about, that guy does not use language like that being attributed to him in that quote given the public pronouncements of the organisation he is representing.

@JlM, RUDAW was the first place I looked.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/04102023

Headline says, “IOCs in Kurdistan Region say not in position to produce oil until arrears paid”.

Unfortunately the content of the opening paragraph does not match the certainty of the headline.

“A petroleum association on Tuesday said that the international oil companies (IOCs) in Kurdistan Region will not produce oil until it is clear how they are to be paid for their contractual entitlements of sold oil, saying members are owed nearly $1 billion in arrears.”

Key phrase, “… until it is clear…”, which reflects the APIKUR request I referred to for clarity.

You cannot provide the link to the primary source from which the quote attributed to Caggins originated because it does not exist.

@JlM, “Below Caggins interview by RUDAW”

Where is the link to the original interview I.e. the primary source?

If you provide the link to the original interview and the quote is there as you have published it, I will never post on here again other than to give you a full apology.

I propose that the purported quote is made up and a deliberate attempt to mislead, show everyone I am wrong.

@JlM, where is the quote “ "Caggins, spokesman for the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR), told Rudaw APIKUR members have not received $1 billion in entitlements, which they must receive before they "fully" restart production."” coming from apart from a copy and paste from ADVFN?

The last bit “… which they must receive…” looks like a bit of creative writing to get the easily led salivating.

The official APIKUR releases only ask for clarity on how the monies will be repaid, absolutely zero mention of it being upfront and a necessary condition for production resuming in full.

Has all the hallmarks of our retired cricketing friend Paul :)

Look at the outcomes of his previous predictions, perfect cover for dressing up a known outcome as a prediction :)

Were there two sources, Iraqi and Turkish or one with dual nationality? :)

Where best to hide a known outcome in plain sight? On a public bulletin board. :)

How about he was having yet another guess but this time based on a time based probability study and he just happened to get it right?

Look at the reports leading up to the event, pipeline seems OK, now needs confirmation by external assessors, waiting for the report, Minister at meeting in ME on the Sunday - let’s plump for the Monday the 2nd as the most likely news release date…

Even easier to understand, Long Genel but Short GKP on the same news.

Algo identifies traceable difference but only the Short has to be reported at the level held and that’s all they focus on - burn, fry…