Member Info for theiceberg

Sentinel data was on the 18th but it was cloudy. Prior to that was the 8th, which was too early.
The next one should be around the 28th of July, hopefully with less cloud, if we've not had any plan update by then.
You can get more recent than that, but you need resolution of 10m per pixel to give you a chance of finding them (sentinel).
I believe there is a 25m one that's daily, but this isn't high enough res for the rigs. IMO.

Market makes are laughing at a few Private investors this afternoon. Take some shares below 4p and then sell them at 4.2 as soon as there’s any buying

It varies on the equipment. 2-4m normally. I know it’s obvious but the longer the rod, the less changes the quicker the drill. The equip looks pretty big so I’d go for 3-4m

Well, we can make out the pond and the 45 degree angle of the drill, so they are drilling pretty shallow with a 600m drill down to about 400m. But beyond that is really any one's guess. There is a lot of cloud cover so I am not sure the weekly sat pass will be of much use.
Personally I still think they are waiting for the open pit design diagram to then show where the drills are and so how much additional footprint they are likely to add.

The problem is, it kind of worked with condelco in chile. It's a massive state company that generates huge sums of money. They have underinvested in the last decade though.
Ecuador tried to create a state mining company but failed.
In truth though they need a sensible mix of outside mining companies providing expertise and capital and a slim well run state company which can take advantage of the profits.

Peru doesn't seem to have the balance right at any level.

100% nothing to do with XTR. Well over half the resource stocks in my watchlist are down over 5%, even RIO and BHP are down 3-4%. considering this XTR is doing quite well IMO, some decent buy action .
As you say the weather doesn't help, nor do the empty trading desks causing by covid pings after the sporting events. Market makers will be keeping their positions very very light, so any even small sell off will cause a downward SP.

However the opposite will be true and any good news landing such as open pit or initial 200-300m of mineralisation in a completely new zone will get an extra push upwards.

It's easy to get lost in mining stocks, there are literally hundreds to choose from on AIM, all exploring the "next big thing".

However, how many of them have TWO diamond drill rigs in operation? Let alone in a country like Australia. Plenty have cheap and dirty RC drilling, but not the gold standard DD.
How many of them are on the verge of production revenue with no cost?
How many of them have the amount of news likely to land in the next 6 months?
How many of them are significantly cheaper than the Chairman has brought in at?

I've got a feeling that Colin's planning a big bang nest week. With the initial scoping of the open pit and then following it up with a drill plan of where they are extending it etc.

You need the context of the open pit and resource potential to fully appreciate the drilling from the two rigs.

It's a bit risk but I can't see it being this low in say 3 months time, the share price is so low it's can't really raise funds with shares, at least not much. But the business should be doing quite well now..

Current price is 4.25-4.5

No ramping and the share continues to rise back to its base level which is still away off.

We've had a decent rise from our two "nice" RNS's. I use the term "nice" with thought, as I don't think they are really value adding. They are nice in the fact that they reinforce previous commitments but they don't give us any new evidence.
We need to be able to see the anomaly maps to really give our own verdict, we need to see the open pit scoping to give our own verdict. At the moment it's just Colin's words and thoughts; if words and thoughts of AIM Chairmen/CEO's were all taken as fact we would all be millionaires.

I say this not as a dig, its nice to get confirmation - it's also nice that he thought to split it up and report it at 7am as someone else said. But if we view the RNS's in this context then rising above 4p is a good start onto the 6-10-18p, that at least I think it could reach according to my views from the weekend. It also means that more meat will provide a greater share price impact when it lands (such as drill plans, open pit scope, IP maps and start of drilling).

It was nice to hear in the interview that forestry is onboard and keen to approve. Nobody seems to care too much about mining/exploration in this location.

So in total a nice day, with nice news and a nice SP response, hopefully not too long to wait for a great day, with great news and a great SP response.

It will be nice to get the actual graphics but I assume this is new in and it's more important to get the news out than wait.

Still lots of news to come, at the moment we are simply scratching the edges.

It's a mistake that some analysts make imo. They view it to simply as; we have a copper defecit. The market will expand to fill it through exploration of acquisition. The market will use more lower grade projects and riskier jurisdictions.
However the companies themselves are making lots of money on fat margins.
They don't care about the market - they care about their company. I am sure the boards and CEO s would prefer to expand their profits and reserves in a low risk way, rather than be the CEO who spent a fortune and had a risk that didn't pay off.

It puts bushranger in a very strong poistion.

All approvals received and license renewal submitted (formality).
Drilling at the end of the week.
Roll on the updates.

Yes is the answer imo 're c ovid in Australia. Australia's poorly vaccination and badly positioned to deal with the delta variant.
However it shouldn't impact xtr too much. The drill teams will still be able to work. The survey work has already been done. The labs will no doubt have even more backlog so it might increase from 2-3 months for assays to 3-4 months. It's always good to have a truthful open mind on the SP. Imo the final jorc and results will be March April next year. However I also think the market has factored that in. It's good though that there seems to be a steady stream of value adding news,.

So, this is a quick calculation and is certainly just my opinion. It's also pretty conservative imo and doesn't take into account potential sentiment rises.
Eureka: Current Book value 12m - rising to 15m if the bulk processing takes place
Bushranger: Current Book value 25m
Manica: 8.5m - Rising to 15m if it achieves 250k a month revenue production.
Alluvials: 1.5m
This gives the following values.
Current Value 5.2p

With Eureka processing 5.7p
With Manica processing 6.7p
With Eureka exploration IOCG 8.7p

With Bushranger:
Open Pit potential 1.5p
Expansion of bushranger surface resource through partial phase 2 drilling 2.5p
JORC 4p

So 18.5p if everything comes in by Q1 2022, but in truth a range of things might happen. New developments such as JV's, buy out's are not included; nor exceptional exploration results for bushranger or eureka.

I don't think anything I've put up is completely unrealistic and I am also sure that everybody will have their own views. At the moment we seem to be running at around a 25-30% reduction to value, maybe caused lack of news, management, general sentiment.

“ Manica should get into production during this quarter, and due to the 2.25% NSR royalty, Empress expects to be receiving around 577 toz gold per year on average.”
So we are probably looking at sept/Oct:)
I might finally be able to stop discounting it!

Re XTR my view hasn't really changed from my first investment here. Like Northparkes etc it will be open pit, followed by underground of any economic grades. I was happy re the recent anomaly that none finger like porphyry systems had been identified such as potential dykes etc. The more surface the better and cheaper.
What will be interesting is whether any surface features to the SE (away from the fault) will be more gold centric (we know the gold looks like it came first and then was reprinted over by copper, which apart from the a few areas to the SE took the gold out in its cooling and retraction event)

I am still intrigued by Eureka. If it reaches what it looks like it might hold re copper. It would be a sizable deposit and ripe for quick developement and could alone under pin the current market cap.

throw in the uncertainty of footrot, other australian potential and the revenue from the African assets the potential value added has to be considerable.

Thanks for that Howezap.
As always I appreciate when my comments are liked. Hopefully that goes with the positive and constructively negative ones I have posted about the company.

AIM has been shown to be a mugs game again recently, particularly trying to predict share prices. whether its ARCM and its fall today. Or PANR which I invested in at 33p pre drill Depth, then it rose to 40, dropped to 24p after results and now, on no news has risen back to to 50p. (I am not invested now). There is often no real rhyme or reason for price movements and trying to make sense of it will drive you mad.
For me its why you always invest for valued added potential. At some point for whatever reason the market will eventually wake up, then you sell.
You can trade on sentiment, but far too often people then try to drive and influence that sentiment and you end up as a ramper who's trying to trap folks in while your seeking to sell. For note there is a difference between being excited that the share is doing well and ramping imo.

Looks like we didn't witness a rise due to imminent news - unless we get an RNS intra day.
I think it was probably just a sentiment rise as we should be back at 5p minimum before drilling starts again.
A bit of confidence is all the share needs to get back to 5p then we can start again on the real rise (although the fall to this level was appreciated :)