RE: Spodumene price9 Feb 2019 08:55
Typing something up on this as we speak....
There is a better understanding now of lithium pricing. China very much had its own demand bubble, it paid a big premium to the rest of the world during its rapid expansion phase. This started to cool down in H1 2018 and came to a halt in H2 2018. Thanks largely to the US-China trade spat.
The spat has had a big effect on the forming middle class in China, in effect halting its rapid expansion. The demand for electric cars in china was being caused by this expansion. Chinese companies assumed it would continue and so made plans to increase lithium equally rapidly.
The halting expansion has led to a fall in demand, just when Australia, the main supply, has been increasing supply. The bubble has burst and what was a demand led bubble has turned to a supply led glut. I have no doubt that China will have lower prices for Lithium than the rest of the world for 2019. At least until there are clear signs that Chinese Growth has increased to above 8%.
TBF it has little affect on SAV. I am sure the US-China spat will be fixed by 2020 and the Chinese Govt will have forced growth above 8% by 2020.