Member Info for TheFarEnd

Ollerdeekid.

“The usual suspects only ever posting the negative news that they can find. To balance things a bit how about..

'Investing.com -- Retail sales in the UK rebounded in January”

The kid, grasping at straws, picking retail sales as the panacea of Reeves achievements so far.

Yeah, retail figures improved (hangover from Xmas?) but spending on imported goods only helps the manufacturer's.

It's not like we're on the supply side, as can be seen by the disastrous manufacturing PMI figures. Down from 48.3 to 46.4. Just to reiterate manufacturing has been on a decline since labour took over. After inheriting positive numbers last July and on a roll into August manufacturing is now well into negative figures.

In your words Ollerdeekid this is for balance hehe.

Remember growth is our number 1 priority, and you believe this $hite.

The ONS has released the latest public sector finance figures this morning. With worrying signs…

Self-assessment tax receipts in January have produced a fiscal surplus of £15.4 billion, the highest since monthly records began. Good news – until you take into account that the OBR had forecast a surplus of £20.5 billion for January in its October 2024 budget report. A full quarter gone…

Self-assessment income tax receipts were £3 billion lower than the OBR predicted, and capital gains tax receipts were £1.1 billion weaker at £11.4 billion. Public sector borrowing on the other hand is the fourth-highest on record and £12.8 billion more than the OBR forecast. The Treasury borrowed £118.2bn so far compared to the estimated £105.4 billion. Some alarm bells there.

Good to see folks, well most folks in harmony here.

A change of heart and or, a rethinking of opinions seems to have done the trick.

Just saying.

As you were so convinced that immediately post results the SP would retreat. Perhaps for once, just once, you may like to take a gamble on selling even a tiny amount of your long-term holding here.

It can be very rewarding buying back more stock with no additional monies involved, not even stamp duty and dealing charges.

Currently over 3.9% to the good.

Go on, you know you want to. As you say this is such a dire stock.

“I'll be willing to consider UK peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.”

The first time Starmer has spoken out on the international stage and he's been ridiculed by our allies.

Thought he was on safe ground but ended up jumping the gun.

True to form, a proper numpty.

Is there no end to this premier's wisdom?

Meanwhile Germany is considering sending another 500 helmets to assist Ukraine.

Re: This is so funny..

Living proof that we are all living longer?

“all starmer want is to be the big statesman,think he needs to sort our own country problems first”

Full of his own pi*sing importance, he's a minnow who's fk up at home, just like Macron.

As the subject is down, anyone thinking of having a punt on WG?

Surprising everyone. Economists were expecting a 0.1% reduction, Reeves breathed a sigh of relief but 0.1% is fly 💩 and within the margin of error. The ONS could revise these figures later.

Whichever way you look at it, it doesn't look good going into the new financial year.

Lokiloo.

“The British economy is on course to expand by 1.5% this year after the budget gave a boost to public spending but could be blown off course.”

Firstly, the British economy is not on course to expand by 1.5% this year. Keep up Loopy, growth has been revised down. Getting so-called facts from the Guardian without cross checking their biased articles is akin to investing your money in people's share recommendations on this BB.

How did the budget expand public spending? Nothing has been spent yet, only announced, in a desperate attempt by Reeves to try to boost inward investment after it was plain to see labour haven't a clue how to create growth. In fact spending is contracting in the private sector. Of course the tax and spend of labour will continue, if only to appease their paymasters.

With the black hole and the 14 years kudos slogan fading fast. It appears the socialist have to quickly move on and blame something else. This time it's Trump,

The missguided will quickly latch on to this excuse for failure, and you lapped it up, “doh”!

Another 11 suspended.

WhatsAaaaaaaapp!!!!!

Roll on 7 am Thursday.

The government has been working ‘at pace’ behind the scenes to try and mitigate the damage that will be released on Thursday this week….

A raft of GDP figures.

Business investment.

Manufacturing production.

Construction output.

Trade balance.

M2 and M3 supply.

Everyone knows the downturn is fully entrenched and the consensus is, things will get worse before they improve. That's everyone except the numpties in denial.

Most of those numpties are in a cabinet meeting right now.

What a $hit show.

Blimey, gold approaching $3000.

Another one suspended.

They couldn't hold it together, not even for one year. Usually happens when you make it up as you go along.

Starmer, what a farce.

A901.

💩 or not, it's more relevant and therefore more important to us than chicken wings.

And I said, I was just saying.

I think today's highlights would more likely be the labour minister dismissed by Starmer.

Both probably irrelevant as chicken wings.

What's more worrying is that antisemitism is still alive and well in your beloved labour party.

Just saying.

BoE CPI forecasts.

"UK CPI inflation to peak at 3.7% in Q3 2025

(Nov 2024 estimate: peak at 2.8% in Q3 2025), returns to target in Q4 2027."

"BoE forecasts GDP growth with previous ‘guesstimates’ in brackets.

2025 0.75%

(Nov 2024. forecast: 1.5%).

2026 1.5%

(Nov 2024: 1.25%).

2027 1.5%

(Nov 2024: 1.25%).

BoE base rate forecasts.

Bank rate at 4.2% in Q4 2025 (Nov 2024 forecast: 3.7%).

4.1% in Q4 2026 (Nov 2024: 3.7%)

4.0% in Q4

2027 (Nov: 3.6%).”

If you can't take onboard or understand the above there's no hope.

I'll simplify it for you.

All CPI inflation has been revised upwards and will not reach the 2% target until the last quarter 2027.

GDP growth has been revised substantially downward, 50%+

Base rates will remain higher than anticipated for much longer. All of the above figures can be attributed to the government's policies set by Reeves et al. under Starmer's leadership.

Labour are desperately hoping for some world catastrophe to blame it on even they are begining to realise they can't keep blaming 14 years and a fictitious black hole 🕳️

How can you defend these figures?

My replies in brackets.

"We expect to be able to cut bank rate further but we will have to judge meeting by meeting how far and how fast."

(That's why you have regular meetings).

"Road ahead will have bumps."

(Nothing goes up or down in a straight line).

"Behind uptick in headline inflation stands a continued, gradual easing of underlying inflationary pressures."

(So even though inflation is going up, everything point's to it going down).

"Consumers are more price conscious and holding back on spending."

(Because they know everything is getting more expensive more quickly under this disastrous government).

"Unclear what form global trade policies will take.”

(This is our ‘BoE’ get out clause if we've got it wrong).

"We must judge in future meetings whether underlying inflation pressures are easing enough to allow further cuts."

(That's your job, nothing like stating the obvious).

"Bank rate is not on a pre-set path."

(Even though we're under pressure from the government to reduce rates).

"We must proceed carefully."

(Markets don't like unexpected shocks and movements).

"We continue to use "gradual" because we still need to see disinflation take place."

(See above).

"You can conclude productivity has got much worse."

(An obvious statement of fact since this government took over).

"It would be unusual for poor productivity situation to remain.”

(Yes, at some stage growth will return. However figures today indicate the civil service employees growing but efficiency is reversing).

"Government growth agenda will not come through quickly but we are supportive.”

(Government growth was on track before this lot got elected by default. Then for the first six months they talked it down until someone had a word in their ‘shell’ and pointed out where they were going wrong. Now desperately trying to talk it up and finding out it's not so easy, especially with a tax and spend policy. You've laid the foundations all right, built on clay and watch your own fiscal rules. You've got flatlining growth, rising inflation, recession looming and a pi*sed off electorate. All revised growth figures are down and all revised inflation figures are up).

In short it's a $hit show and it's laughable reading and hearing folks trying to defend this clueless government.

That's the system A901, FPTP. However, those thirty odd percent who voted labour surely won't make the same mistake again. There are exceptions of course, just look at certain posts on this BB.

As things stand right now labour could win by default again. As one of your former heroes said “a week is a long time in politics” Thet make 4 years an eternity. Gawd help us.

Stairway to heaven...

Look around you, It's called the highway to hell.

We can't get off it for another 4 years.

The protectionists block is soaking up some of its own medicine. Panic in Brussels.

Chair of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade Bernd Lange told the Financial Times in an interview posted on Friday that the European Union is ready to offer to cut tariffs on cars coming from the United States in an effort to avoid a trade war with US President Donald Trump.

"We can try to have a deal before escalating costs and tariffs," he commented, adding that the import tax, which now stands at 10%, could fall closer to the 2.5% that Washington currently charges for cars imported from the EU. Officials in Brussels told the news outlet that the bloc's car sector would back the move.

Apart from this, the EU would offer to buy larger volumes of liquefied natural gas and military equipment from the US, according to Bernd. In the past couple of weeks, Trump has repeatedly complained about the US-EU trade deficit, vowing to slap tariffs on the bloc.

What are Starmer's thoughts on possible increased tariffs?

I don't know, but more worrying, Starmer doesn't know either.

With all this bad news, expect a major U turn from this government. Of course it will be dressed up as reaction to market conditions. No mention that they created it.

What a $hit show.