Member Info for TheCondorMan

Leave aside the whataboutism and false equivalences ... uk and usa have NEVER defaulted on their debt in over 400 years.

"kick the can down the road" ? the flippant way you state this shows your true colours. Defaulting on debt has massive implications on the country's economy and the populace as a whole. Ethiopia is one of those basket cases where the birr has an 'official' rate which the government likes t o tout... but it also has a massive black market exchange which has a disparity of over 80%. It is the latter that is effectively active in every day life. The central bank has no cred and is incapable in intervening regularly in the Forex market, hence the black market has arisen and the central bank has lost control of the exchange rate. These black market rates occur when the official rate bears little resemblance to the actual market conditions.

Ethiopia is a typical basket case that wants to preserve the value of their currency, but has dwindling foreign currency reserves - one option is to restrict who can buy foreign currency and in what amounts!

It is these restrictions which drive the rise of a black market. People want more foreign currency than the government will let them buy, either because they want to spend it abroad or because they don't trust the government not to destroy their capital with inflation.

8 December 2023 - Miners need to see the colour of Ethiopia's money before entering.

Miners need to be convinced

Moves by Ethiopia's central bank to let foreign miners convert the Birr currency to dollars won't be enough to prompt mining entrants until it's clear foreign exchange is genuinely available...

https://www.mining-journal.com/africa/news/4154854/miners-colour-ethiopias-money-entering#:~:text=Miners%20need%20to%20see%20the%20colour%20of%20Ethiopia%27s%20money%20before%20entering,-Miners%20need%20to&text=Moves%20by%20Ethiopia%27s%20central%20bank,is%20genuinely%20available.%20...

Those news stories taken together run counter to the idea of the long-awaited credit approval being 'imminent'. Kefi have pushed the imminent line for years now and each month that goes by we realise more and more the Horn of Africa countries are a no go.

"inflation already high"

and ? it'll get a lot lot higher if the default occurs. That post you have copy/pasted is from Nov. Did it know that ethiopia would default on sovereign debt ? of course it debt.. so that answer is out of date.

the birr will depreciate significantly, and that will have a knock on effect on whole of the country. To make it look that this wont effect Kefi's bottom line is just plain deception and lies. The repayment of kefi's debt to the banks will be affected as those same banks will have to service their debts at a higher rates because of the default fall out. You think these banks will just let off kefi and not pass on the interest rate hikes ?

Succinct comment from another forum :

"I am staggered people still take non-RNS statements from HAA at face value. At what stage will you realise that he is happy to say literally anything in the press, no matter how fanciful? He's 'launched' this project about a dozen times despite knowing full well it was nowhere near financed. He is utterly shameless."

This is what happening on the ground.... as opposed to the Harry 'saying whatever that pleases the lemmings' Adams :

US-Based Financier Shuts Ethiopian Unit Citing Forex Rules

Ethio Lease says laws were changed after its establishment

The Ethiopian birr has plunged since company was set up

Ethio Lease, a foreign-owned financial company operating in Ethiopia, said it will close after the National Bank of Ethiopia changed currency laws and made it impossible for it to repay its debts.

The planned move to shut the unit of New York-based Africa Asset Finance Co. that won a license from the central bank in 2019, is a blow to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s aim of opening up the economy to foreign capital. Mamo Mihretu, the central bank governor, refuted Ethio Lease’s reasons.

“Ethio Lease increasingly faced obstruction,” the company, the only foreign-owned financial services firm in the Horn of Africa nation, said in a statement on Wednesday. “The situation reached a tipping point in June 2021 when the NBE amended one of the directives that established Ethio Lease’s regulatory framework.”

rest :

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/us-based-financier-shuts-ethiopian-unit-citing-forex-rules?leadSource=uverify%20wall

It's the implications of the debt default.... it'll be massive. inflation will shoot through the roof.... which means cost of the project will do the same. Banks will have to hike interest rates to the hilt, as they'll find it super hard to access foreign debt unless they pay junk bond rates (financial market version of pay day loan rates). And Kefi, if it gets the debt deal done, will have to include provisions for the hiked rates into their debt rapayment.

Says the idiot that has posted nearly 300 posts in a month, ramping some right dog stocks.

you see folks, this exemplifies the sort of rose tinted ramping merchant rob, the cut and paste muppet, really is. Every event, news, etc he sees through very thick prescription grade rose tinted spectacles. Bin any objective reality, trash the real interpretation or reasoning.... but spew out mega pro kefi bias on any info/data/news no matter how remote, irrelevant or even glaringly bad.... why ? because rob is so deep in the mire with this manure stock, he simply cant contemplate seeing the objective side of anything, let alone veering or interpreting anything negatively (see his interpretation of the rollover trade). Its a classic trait of cognitive bias that such gamblers adopt because doing otherwise will shatter the delusional world they live in and expose themselves as admitting that they've made a total mess in squandering £1000s into the share, and getting it so wrong with their investment/speculation

Rob you clueless wonder. The two trades is a roll over. A sell and a buy back ... market maker making a cut in the price difference for facilitating the trade. Roll overs are done for various reasons.. like when wanting an extended settlement, transfer of stock from one portfolio to another, tax reasons etc.

for someone who makes oneself look like a know it all, you really are mega clueless wonder !!

Everyone who feeds this clown with their responses to his trolling becomes much more annoying and unpleasant than this clown himself.

You're not a prophet of any kind, just a naughty boy.

And you're the false prophet !!

WWP..

AMAK has $50m+ debt. see balance sheet as 31 Dec 2022.

so i've boosted the share -90+ % ? ..... you have a warped sense of what "bosting" actually means.

And whats your point ? the valuation given didnt take into account development of $100s of millions.

instead you provide your cut and past garbage as if you've made some wonderous magical point... completely missing the question raised. If you cant address the question, dont answer it with pointless irrelevant cut and paste trash.

As for jokes, you personify one big joke. You've ramping this all the way down to -90+% of the price. The reality is, the joke is on you.... keep to the day job of cut/n/paste.... as telling jokes isnt your forte.... cue the "joking aside" retort... like you do in your posts..... and yes do leave your jokes aside as they banal beyond belief.

Do your numbers take into account that AMAK spent nearly $200m in developing those mines to bring them to production ?

Just because the debt will be in a subsidiary doesnt mean KEFI wont put it in the consolidated balance sheet. Otherwise using your logic, as the debt isnt being help by kefi, neither is TK asset.

You are confusing lower grade as somehow being more costly ? but forgetting they own all of their major mining equipment. The $500m is over 15years producing 240k oz per year

Kefi c$400m producing 140k oz per year over 7 years ?

The key parameter Net Cash flow - Allied beats kefi hands down

As for this nonsense that allied's cost are more...

"Africa-focused Allied Gold, which on Monday listed on the TSX, has approved the expanded Kurmuk project, in Ethiopia, earmarking $500-million for a two-phase development plan.

Kurmuk is now planned as a 240 000-oz/y gold mine with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) targeted below $950/oz, with a strategic mine life extending for an initial 15 years."

and kefi :

"Kefi said the average planned gold production at Tulu Kapi is forecasted to be more than 140 000 oz/y at an all-in sustaining cost of about $950/oz"

so 240k oz v 140k oz = with both having same cost per oz. Allied is a 15 year mine, Kefi is around 7 years max

So explain how Allied's way more expensive than kefi's ?

Are you for real ? do you know how takeover calculations are made ?

Allied has cash flow - millions each year - has been for nearly a decade. It has a massive cash balance and zero debt.

Kefi has none of either.... has been for over a decade

Allied bought the asset that had no debt attached to it. In other words enterprise value was just for the asset paid for - no debt to take on.

Kefi has the asset but has enormous debt attached to it - the enterprise value would therefore have to include the debt if you are going to compare like for like with allied's purchase. Not only that, the asset is effectively mortgage to the debt. It's a charge which means its not theirs until the debt is paid off.

Allied on the other hand own the asset outright - no mortgage or charge against the asset.

This is pure black and white accounting numbers - not sentimental bias, or rose tinted "they are better", "more value" etc etc tripe.