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Tony is living in cloud 9 as usual and if he is basing his debt reduction and financial planning on $65/bbl then he (and Kenni) are seriously deluded
Thanks Goodman for sharing - very kind thanks.
What worries me (knowing Tony's modus operandi well based upon past form) is that once again he seems to be mising the point of the current economic climate. Its like a blip in the road to him and that worries me.
"The BP assets are immediately cash generative even at very low commodity prices. At $65/bbl, the enlarged group will generate, on average, more than $300m of FCF per annum out to end 2024, consistent with analyst forecasts."
- analysts are ******s and never get it right, their predictions depend on who is buttering their bread at that time
- that prediction is at $65, whats the predcition like if POO stays in the 35-45 range Tony ??? where will PMO debt look like then in 2024? Questions to consider IMO
GLA
i think this hurricane is gonna whack US - reportedly worst in 25 years predicted for US oil and refining production.
Jackson Hole meeting bound to dangle more carrots for liquidity to keep gravy train going until US election
RI price unlikely before end next month so gives a month of trading possibilites - come SK you know you want to hahahah
I dont disagree Happyinvestor - i just hope your wrong:)
The unknown is (as always) how, exactly Tony will choose to screw things up further from here to excel on his great job to date (NOT). And more importanlty for me, trying to get in the head of ARCM and what they are looking at exactly and why - that i am still undecided regardless all the conspiracy theories being banded about
Yes its a real gamble i agree BUT i tried to weigh up the pro's and con's and for me it weighed in favour of taking a position. I am (as always looking to trade over a day or few days for profit) but also start to build a small position.
Jackson hole meeting will probably (hopefully) bring some news about more stimulus to buoy the markets again (maybe)
All very speculative but it might just work - lets damn well hope so !
And bought a few more at 22 something
Some big buys going through 130k, 106k, 90k, 30k - maybe you guys :)
Looking for a trade - fingers crossed
Devastating Hurricane shut out nearly 50% of US refining and propduction
Seems relatively stable - for now - until RI
TD will probably screw me - lets see - anyone else bought ?
When does anyone think we are likely to hear of the RI price? Or will we just find out when its done.
False dawn today me thinks - the problem with PMO is that no one trusts or gives credit to the CEO, infact most now agree and concur he is indeed the wrong man for the job (as i have been saying until i was blue in the mouth) as such who is going to dip their toes in here to show willing when we all know with almost certainty that TD will have no scrupples in simply dropping an RNS advising of RI at possibly 19 or so and fruther screw PI's who have actually been the company's saving grace in the past - in fact last time it was at 19pm several years ago pre-EON II's didnt touch it with a barge pole and it was only PI's that helped him bring it back online - he has a short memory and living in that ivory tower too long
Brokers are ALWAYS wrong ! They always have an ulterior motive for their price calls !
not gonna help matters - falling hard in last hour pre-open - looking to end a messy friday all around
Sorry Triumph - i meant the next lowest since March - August 3rd @ 274.80 - then its opne all way down to March low as you state
Some big sales going through - i am guessing some II's dumping now not just PI's - over 15% drop again today - looks set to end in teens today -
Question is whether markets will rebound next week and a quick profit to turn on oilies generally (i wouldnt touch PMO at this stage with so much uncertainty) but TLW maybe or ENQ
BP now through March low - will it hold - oh man
PMO now 16% - race to teh bottom, have a lovely weekend Tony !
I see you avoided my earlier question Kenni ?
PMO and TLW heading for 20 - i see a lot of selling on my L2 Kenni -
Just watching is painful - PMO down 12% as we know but TLW also off 6%
Even BP and RDSA hurting - only seems the likes of HUR and ENQ bucking the trend
BP interesting - SP about to hit its March low - if it drops through there, tin hats for BP also !
Ugly market, unnerving and dont like to see this -
Small trader - insightful and thanks for sharing.
Couple of things like to add please -
"Remember breakeven is only $37 oil for PMO" - yes but its only just above that now and with interest on debt this does not leave sufficient for debt repayment or the new debt and interest at 8%+. As we know companies always overshoot on their OPEX and CAPEX and with breakeven so dangerously close to current price (which looks unstable) there is big risk here IMO. If anything Oil will head lower as demand peters off.
"We just need to wait and see at what price the equity raise would be. It may not be the yesterday's closing price of 27p as creditors might dictate this price. Like Kenny mentioned, the shares issued to them cannot be sold until 12 months." remember the last refinance and it ended up being a completely different animal to what was initially agreed, a whole mess with all the convertible bonds and arbitrage dealings of the debt holders. Its not just the refinance its the way the debtors then handle their positions, i,e they hedge and short and manipulate to make more money.
IMO its all just looking very very tight and as Alpha just mentioned with the equity raise equal too or in excess of the current market cap this does like throwing money down the drain
. . . and finally the most disconcerting is that the same CEO remains to steer through what is possibly the most critical period of this company's life. Doesn't instil much confidence does it really - get a new CEO and it might just spark interest and spring this back to life IMO
Alpha - basically PMO is bankrupt !
Kenni - you were singing the stars when the SP was at 51p saying it will hit 1.50 - i was telling you all to take profit and sit back and got shot by you as a deramper - just out of interest are you standing by your conviction and still holding long and strong ?
Tarth, i see RI price around 18-19.50 - close to the Nov 2016 low
SK, FUnky et al - yes it is pegged and being held in place, there is a very fine line now with the equities, treasuries and bond yields and oil - the Fed and ECB etc are all buying trillions of dollars of all these and hence we see this false daw with equities hitting all time highs etc.
This is being set up for one collassal correction of all time IMO - i know i have been saying this for a while now but mark my words its not far off - Corporates are simply issuing bonds to borrow more or delay debt payments or even increase debt. We have all seen the corporate earnings - ther eis no economic climate of growth anywhere, its just hanging in there. The financial BUST will come next, it just takes a few banks to start getting nervous with liquidity issues and start calling in NPL's and then the house of cars will collapse and IMO it will be a shed load bigger and worse thatn 2008!
Seems doom and gloom but its the way i see it guys
GLA