Member Info for Thebigpicture

Hi Tony

I could be wrong (I often am bought tullow at 28 p) but from my figures once you add in the 6,000 gas which does not ship 12.5 cargos in the year puts us bang in the middle of guidance. Which I think we will beat by. 1.5 to 2.5 cargos

Guidance is 10 jubilee and 2.5 ten cargos upper guidance would result in increase in ten cargo of 1/2 and 1 extra jubilee cargo ( 22 mins into the webcast) would generate an extra 110 million fcf. each additional cargo above that at 100 dollars generates an extra 70 million free cash flow.

Https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm

Is the price tullow get from glencore for the oil they produce tied to Brent or is it marketed by Glencore who then take a percentage. If the latter is the case will tullow because of the geographic location be getting closer to the Asian Indian grades right now of around 150 ?

Looks like the gas money is on the way

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ghanas-parliament-passes-provisional-budget-averts-government-shutdown-2025-01-03/

Hi Paul

Hertz

Https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/031524-falling-production-waning-investment-leave-ghanas-oil-sector-at-a-crossroads

over 100bpd

2.90 X1040X100X365 = just over 110 million per year at current supply rates

Old news but you don't spend 700 million and not sign the gas deal. Gas deal on the way a twice the current output!

Https://gna.org.gh/2023/02/ghana-gas-signs-agreement-for-us700-million-second-gas-processing-plant/

Hedge cost was the difference between what they sold the oil for and what they took eg the amount above the top of the hedge. The hedge cost for this year is not yet determined bar the 2 dollar per barrel premium.

The development costs for the Kenya project split out according to Tullow figures from the annual reports as:

> 1.8 billon pipeline and central processing unit.

> Due to the shallow nature of the reservoirs only 1.2 billion for wells and associated work.

The finance in my opinion will come from the disputed 2 that the Kenya government needs to pay to Tullow and partners for the exploration work which is due to be paid on first commercial oil exports. This figure is disputed in and is more likely to be reduced by 10 to 20 % but should still cover the reworked pipeline and central processing facility. It may be the case the government specifically funds these, i think they may also receive a payment per unit for early settlement of this sum.

The upstream works excluding the CPF come in at 1.2 billion of which 600 million would be Tullows costs. This may be reduced to 500 million if the well cost reduction targets across Tullows other fields can be achieved. This would account to 250 million per year over 2 years or 167 million per year over 3 years for 40,000 barrels of oil to Tullow. With Tullow set to see a material reduction of over 100 million per year in decommissioning costs after 2022 and with 900 million cash available at this point i think development costs will be affordable.