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$15bn added to Merck market capitalisation immediately post announcement Mulnupiravir EUA. This is the best available indictation of the total market value of all Covid-19 antiviral theraputics. Synairgen investors were correct in anticipating enormous potential if company's interferon product was good enough to capture even a small share of this market and could be made available in a timely fashion. The jury is still out on both counts. But if Synairgen could secure just a 2% of this market then approx £200m should by added to the company's market value equivalent to £1 per share.

ACTIV-2 Phase II/III trial in US SNG001 (not requiring hospitalisation) commenced in February 2021... The Phase II trial has completed recruitment and a review is underway to determine whether SNG001 should be advanced into the Phase III part of the adaptive ACTIV-2 protocol. Results due by year end.
International Phase III trial (SG018), which commenced the recruitment of 610 hospitalised COVID-19 patients who require supplemental oxygen in January 2021, is expected to complete enrolment in November. Data readout now expected in Q1 2022 rather than second half 2021 as indicated at time of fund raising last year. Delay due to regulatoryy approvals. The last patients are expected to enter the trial by the end of November 2021, and results are expected early 2022.
Subject to a positive data read out from the Phase III trial, company will file an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) with the FDA for patients requiring hospitalisation due to COVID-19. With Fast Track status granted by the FDA, Synairgen plans pre-submission meetings with the FDA and the EMA in the EU on the requirements and content for marketing application before end of 2021.
Despite supply chain challenges company expects to have tens of thousands of treatment courses available to the US market should an EUA be granted, with the potential to increase capacity to c.100,000 treatment courses per month equivalent to estimated peak potential monthly revenues of c.$300-350m.

Abingdon down 18% due to dispute DHSC
Despite having been informed by the DHSC in January 2021, verbally and in writing, that payment for the 1m tests had been cleared, the Company understands that the DHSC has now chosen not to pay any of these outstanding sums until after the completion of the Judicial Review proceedings (the "JR") initiated by the Good Law Project ("GLP"). The DHSC has also stated that, if Abingdon commences legal proceedings to recover the outstanding sums, it will apply to have those proceedings stayed until after the determination of the JR. The DHSC seeks to avoid its contractual obligations despite having accepted delivery of the products the Company have supplied, and which it is using, and for components purchased on behalf of the DHSC at its request. Abingdon therefore continues to pursue the DHSC for payment.

https://www.polygoninv.com/strategies/ Polygon is hedge fund operating an event driven strategy in European markets . This means they have bought in because they expect something very significant, and very profitable to happen

@ Woodstock 1970, the hurdle to cross is not that Synairgen's product is ineffective but that it can't be commercialised. This is most likely to arise if there are cheaper, more clinically effective alternatives (Ivermectin ?). The disparity between Synairgen's current share price and my hypothetical 299p valuation implies the market's assessment of the risk of failure to commercialise is about 50%.

The Phillip Morris offer for Vectura values the latter at £1,045bn. Vectura had sales of £190m in 2020 and an operating margin of 60%. Finn Cap estimate for Synairgen is sales of $250m per month. Assume Finn Cap 90% wrong then annual Synairgen sales will be £217m (12 x 25/1.38) and operating margin half the level of Vectura (my assumption). Vectura market value to earnings sales 1045/(190 x 60%) = 9.2. Market value of Synairgen = Synairgen earnings x 9.2 = 217 x 30% x 9.2= £598m. Synairgen shares in issue c.200m. Value of each Synairgen share 299p. Of course if you believe the Finn Cap revenue projection you can adjust the upside accordingly.

Activ 2 All updates provided by Activ 2 team. In phase 2 of Activ 2 but release of updates outside company control
Phase 3 trial exclusively for hospitalised patients in hospital taking oxygen not ventilated. Breathlessness is the bio-marker
Phase 3 recruiting in India and South America timing "a couple of months" but depends on prevalence of virus, vaccine roll-out etc. Should demonstrate Interferon B is effective against all variants
Manufacturing supply chains across pharma problematic at the moment, but believe they are in position to commence manufacturing on receipt of Government orders
Revenue potential from licensing, and government stockpiling. On-going dialogue with potential partners. They believe Interferon B will prove effective against all respiratory viral infections including influenza, rhinovirus
Pricing: will be influenced by monoclonal antibodies and Remdesivir but SNG has to demonstrate efficacy and value for money
Long covid: evidence of effectiveness should be available from phase 3 trial, update 2021H2

I used to read this board avidly for interesting insights on a high risk pharma share, now I find I'm doing it for your recommendations of Baroque choral masterpieces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bznZXLvAH1A

Or this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_0FHyF3Pyk

http://amatiglobal.com/videos.php?id=26 at 46.55 and 51:20

Thanks for this excellent analysis. At this stage the critical issue for SNG is not whether it works, (that's a given) but whether Competitor offerings are more effective and can be produced at lower cost. SNG has a good chance of succeeding on both counts because interferon its the body's own natural mechanism for fighting infection.

https://www.ft.com/content/72050a34-8bab-488f-9777-1d131e583274

https://www.finncap.com/research-portal#/portal/finncap/research/8_24977

Amati holding onto Synairgen stake
http://www.amatiglobal.com/documents/TB_Amati_UK_Smaller_Companies_Fund_Factsheet_B_Acc_Nov_2020.pdf

Evidence of long-term lung damage increases probability that Synairgen will be adopted as first-line of defence against Covid 19 even for non-hospitalisation cases. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55017301

Stock implications. We consider the price falls to stocks such as Synairgen (-39%), Avacta (-36%), genedrive (-38%), Omega Diagnostics (-25%) and Open Orphan (-9%) to offer good buying opportunities. Synairgen (420p TP): countries will still want to stockpile SNG001 as there is currently no broad spectrum antiviral and there is no data on how effective this vaccine is on elderly or sick people. Avacta (TP 310p) and genedrive (TP U/R): there is a continued need for rapid and convenient tests. Omega Diagnostics (TP U/R): antibody tests could be used to confirm immunity. Open Orphan (TP 28p): challenge studies could be used to perform head-to-head clinical trials between first generation and the eventual second generation COVID-19 vaccines.

With respect I think the point you are missing is that previous pandemics have seen fatality rates orders of magnitude higher than Covid's 0.4%, at least 50% with the bubonic plague of the middle ages. Unlike covid, with bubonic plague you don't have to take a test to know that you have it. We could expect 10,000-20,000 deaths from a bad flu season, that's about 200 per day, the same level that Whittey and Valence warned against 3 weeks ago. Are you proposing that we lock down the economy every flu season ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-09-25/virus-mutation-more-infectious-but-not-more-dangerous-video

They deliberately misled the market on significance of iAbra to ramp the share price ahead of a placing for an acquisition

Yes, despite normal 8m share sell order from othe vampire squid