Member Info for TheBasher

@notready

Allow me paste from ChatGPT which offers a summary that reflects my thinking:

---

## 🔍 Overview of CapAI plc (LSE: CPAI)

* Formerly known as Dukemount Capital, CapAI pivoted in early 2025 to focus exclusively on incubating AI- and deep tech‑driven startups—particularly via partnerships and selective acquisitions in media and healthcare sectors ([Proactive Investors][1]).

* It has entered a strategic alliance with **R42 Group Inc.**, a U.S.-based AI venture group led by board member Professor Ronjon Nag, to jointly source, develop, and commercialize early-stage AI innovation ([Morningstar][2]).

---

## 🚩 Major Risk Factors

### 1. **Financial Fragility & Capital Constraints**

* As reported, CapAI has **negative shareholder equity** (approx. –£71 K), zero debt, and minimal cash reserves (\~£28 K), though short-term liabilities exceed assets (£59 K total assets vs £130 K liabilities) ([Simply Wall St][3]).

* Its prior fundraising rounds in October 2024 (£150K) and March 2025 (£275K) reflect limited funding depth, and the company is not yet generating revenue ([TipRanks][4]).

* These conditions raise concerns over runway, liquidity, and ongoing sustainability.

### 2. **Dilution & Share Explosion**

* On 9 June 2025, CapAI issued **400 million new ordinary shares** to Executive Chairman Richard Edwards under a stock‑loan agreement—boosting the total shares outstanding to over 3.63 billion ([Stockopedia][5]).

* Such actions pose significant dilution risk for existing shareholders, particularly if share issuance becomes a recurring funding mechanism.

### 3. **Execution & Strategy Uncertainty**

* The firm's operating model revolves around building “One‑Person Unicorns”—AI businesses powered by lean teams. While capital-efficient, this is inherently **high-risk**, relying heavily on small teams executing flawlessly ([Proactive Investors][6]).

* There’s **no revenue track record**, and the new strategic focus is in its infancy, raising execution and timing uncertainties.

### 4. **Dependence on R42 Alliance**

* The strategic relationship with R42 is central to CapAI’s new operating model. If this alliance dissolves or fails to deliver tangible ventures, CapAI’s pipeline and value proposition would be significantly undermined ([Morningstar][2]).

* Although governance mechanisms are stated to exist, it remains a **high degree of reliance on a related-party structure**.

### 5. **Governance & Insider Concentration**

* Critical roles (e.g., Ronjon Nag and Richard Edwards) straddle CapAI and associated ventures, potentially raising **conflicts of interest** if not carefully managed.

* Lack of financial transparency and board turnover may further heighten investor concerns regarding governance

### 6. Micro‑Cap Volatility & Market Sentiment

With a market cap between £16–19 million, CapAI is a micro‑cap stock—typically highly volatile and sensitive to typically highly volatile and

M’Lurd, don’t underestimate the power of Silicon Valley. Having direct exposure to and contact with the excellence and innovation that comes out of the Valley is, in my view, a game changer, as could Author42 be if they can position it correctly in the booming AI market. That said, I see CapAI as a high risk, very high reward play.

An answer from AI. See “Final Take” at end…

---

## ✅ What’s Happened So Far

* In **October 2024**, Whale Head Minerals (WHM), Kazera’s South African subsidiary, applied for the **Perdevlei Mining Right** over a 3,095 ha concession in Alexander Bay, Northern Cape—a region rich in heavy mineral sands (HMS) ⟶([Investegate][1]).

* WHM provided the necessary **environmental guarantee** under South Africa’s National Environmental Management Act (NEMA), required to support the mining right application ⟶([Mining Weekly][2]).

* By **20 November 2024**, the company secured **Environmental Authorisation (EA)** from South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources & Energy (DMRE), two months ahead of the expected January 2025 timeline ⟶([Research Tree][3]).

* Once the EA was granted, WHM notified all **Interested and Affected Parties (I\&APs)**, triggering a **21-day appeal window**. If no appeals are lodged, the DMRE is authorized to issue the Mining Right ⟶([Research Tree][3]).

---

## 🎯 Probability of Success

Based on available information:

* **Key regulatory steps complete**: The EA is in place and the appeal window has likely expired without objection, putting the application in its final procedural stage.

* **No public reports of appeals** to date, supporting a high probability of license issuance—unless unexpected objections arise.

* **Company optimism**: Kazera has consistently described Perdevlei as one of its most scaling projects, and described early EA approval as “a significant milestone” that advances the timeline into Q1 2025 ⟶([Research Tree][3]).

---

## 📆 When Will the Decision Be Made?

* The 21-day appeal period post‑EA would have expired by approximately **mid-December 2024**, assuming WHM issued notices immediately after 20 November.

* The **DMRE could therefore have issued the Mining Right in late December 2024 or early January 2025**, barring delays—aligning with earlier forecasts.

* News reports and corporate statements (most recent from March 2025) continue to refer to the Mining Right as "expected in the coming months"—suggesting the formal license may still be close to finalisation or just pending gazetting.

## 🔍 So, What Are the Prospects?

* With **EA granted early**, and no known appeals, **the probability of securing the Mining Right is very high**—barring unusual regulatory complications.

* As of **March 2025**, no negative updates have emerged, and Kazera affirm they expect the right “in the coming months” ⟶([This is Money][5], [Research Tree][3], [Mining Weekly][4]).

* The company is **positioned to begin operational cash flow** imminently, contingent on license receipt ⟶([Mining Weekly][4]).

---

## 🧭 Final Take

It is **highly likely** that the Perdevlei Mining Right will be granted to Kazera Global. Given procedural timelines and the absence of appeal issues, **a decision was likely made around late December 2024 to January 2025**, and

It’s a different company now. Cry Baby Clarke and Slippery Eales are gone. There’s a new and appropriately qualified and experienced Exec Chairman (Dr Wardle) and CEO (Kristoffer “Kris” Andersson). And Technical Director PJ Cox has been with the company since 2012 so knows the company inside out.

@silverfoxchef

What’s wrong with taking a punt on WSBN at these levels? If you chuck in an amount you can afford to lose, it has every chance of becoming a mega multi-bagger if they prove up that there is a dome anomaly and its similar to GGPs. A classic high risk, high reward play.

Well, I did call it!

The other posters making comment about TA being irrelevant are misinformed about what TA can show you, regardless of MCAP. Any price movement, and subsequently a chart, is a reflection of human behaviour in the market, of both insiders and retail investors. Learn to interpret that, and you gain invaluable insight, including indications of imminent big news (how often do you hear retail investors moaning about the insiders being privy to price sensitive news before anyone else?) Anyways, this is looking good, isn’t it?

TheBasher

Posts: 1,294

Price: 0.445

No Opinion

50% Fib Retracement15 Jul 2025 13:02

If you believe this is going to go up, the sp has touched the 50% retracement level from the recent rise so not a bad time to buy. If it drops to the 61.8% level at 0.36 then any move north could be even more explosive. If it does drop further, then shows an indication of a reversal, it could be an even better opportunity to buy.

If you believe this is going to go up, the sp has touched the 50% retracement level from the recent rise so not a bad time to buy. If it drops to the 61.8% level at 0.36 then any move north could be even more explosive. If it does drop further, then shows an indication of a reversal, it could be an even better opportunity to buy.

With Tesla sales falling off the edge of a cliff, I wouldn’t be too worried about what Musk preaches.

There’s plenty of other car manufacturers.

BBC News today:

“The government will make it cheaper for people to buy an electric car, the transport secretary has told the BBC”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5z4nlned0o

@steven - turned into Yoda you have !

But not today (so far).

Dennis is based in the UK. Who knows whether that makes any difference at all to progress or news flow over the next couple of months.

@roger65 - I’ve been warning about the potential of this happening for a long time, and have always been shot down and personal insults thrown my way by the self-reassuring herd (spot on, @Silverfoxchef). Now the risk is very real, and increasing all the time.

@stockcheque - it does on the surface seem irrational for a professional investing and trading house to be managing its short position in this manner. ALL the signs were there for a reversal of the downtrend earlier this year, (yes, much to the annoyance of green-boxed Ade1234 I did call it spot on) and you would have thought that at least some of their short would be closed to manage risk and take some profit. It just doesn’t seem to make sense. But obviously it does to them, and that’s what I would like to understand. The theory of trying to suppress the share price even further doesn’t seem to be playing out.

@thanettrader - 60p? Seriously, 60p? So a mere 255x of today’s 0.266. Happy days , you can turn £4000 into £1,000,000 with Kodal as soon as the market “wakes up” to the real value 😉

We can hope, Stockraiser, we can hope.

Well and truly shafted, and I don’t mean in mining terms . Gallows humour on a day when I am convinced my investment in GWMO is dead. The decline has been so huge it’s not even worth selling.

A lifestyle company for Brian Hal to pay for his holidays to the US and further cosmetic work to go with his pearly whites?

@bumpingalong - unfortunately it’s only worth what someone’s prepared to offer, regardless what small shareholders think it’s worth, or what they say they will accept. Hainan own 51%. Do they want this all for themselves? Given the current state of affairs, there is potential for this to be an orchestrated weakening of KMUK so that it needs funding and becomes a distressed seller to bail it out. Who would be the well-funded company to do that? Oh, Hainan. And the Chinese are, as others have pointed out, continuing to build on their already strong relationship with the Mali authorities.

@Daz423

Re: reasons to come back in on Kod.

Exactly, that’s why, like you, I reduced then closed my position but always with the intention of returning if there was confirmation of positive developments such as recovering prices and resolving of issues such as liability of tax payments, and issuing of export license. Unfortunately, none of those things have happened, yet. I say yet, but I still have significant doubts about the intentions of the Chinese JV partner.

Apparently, according to some on this board, an ex-investor who is looking to reinvest but has significant concerns, should not be posting on this board.

A sea of green boxes, and posters mentioning abusive comments by the regular offenders. Just filter the sad little blighters.

Is this what you’re referring to, Chisler?

https://observer.co.uk/news/international/article/relying-on-china-for-essential-rare-earths-is-making-us-prisoners-of-a-codependent-war

Just had time to review the RNS with my Sunday morning coffee.

An interesting read, more direct then the usual waffle we’ve seen in previous RNS. In fact, some of the language is similar to what you might see from a think tank type of body or large institution (DH, you haven’t been copying homework from the EE initiative, have you?). But for me, that’s all positive.

There is definitive progress with the tech, and a clear “next steps” with YLB. Yes, taking longer than originally anticipated but if you believe this is a bullish RNS, which I do, then it gives you time to accumulate before the big news lands.