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Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666866-ugly-truth-about-us-oil-production-and-why-you-should-pay-attention
The Ugly Truth About US Oil Production And Why You Should Pay Attention
Headline figures suggest U.S. oil production hit a new record high, but if you look under the hood, it's really 12.993 million b/d.
By our estimation, Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022 shows +371k b/d growth vs the headline +1 million b/d.
This has very important implications for the oil market in 2024 and onward.
Peak U.S. shale is here a lot sooner than you think.
We are HFI Research, focused on energy investing and research. We run the investing group HFIR Research, providing the latest stock ideas within the oil and natural gas markets.
U.S. oil production growth is far lower than what headline figures are showing: +1 million b/d vs +371k b/d.
For readers, the most important takeaway from our article is the massive disparity in growth. The fact that headline figures show +1 million b/d versus our real implied +371k b/d should be alarming, and that's why we are pounding the table here.
Don't forget that Wintershall DEA had FULL access to HBR's Data Room and obviously the Germans did their comprehensive due diligence post which they put a £360p a share price on HBR at a time of even lower O&G prices than today, simply doing the maths HBR is a no brainer Buy today.
"Analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that “beyond this winter, only one more winter could be tight before oversupply drives further downside”. They expect global liquefied natural gas capacity to increase by 40 per cent by 2027."
PMSL! But this may actually help HBR in getting the Wintershall DEA M&A deal through the door past all the regulatory requirements even sooner than Q4!
Doing the maths HBR is a no brainer buy, don't forget that Wintershall DEA who had FULL access to HBR's Data Room and obviously the Germans did their comprehensive due diligence post which they put a £360p a share price on HBR at a time of even lower O&G prices than today.
Alex, I agree, today a +4% drop on NO RNS/News is a buying opportunity not to be missed, I currently only foresee good news here either from the assets and/or on M&A and/or even on government support with 85% of Scots supporting the O&G industry, and upcoming Dividends and AGM!
Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) near the top of the list:
https://www.stockopedia.com/content/3-ftse-350-value-stocks-with-5-yields-987566/
I concur. UK & European Gas prices have interestingly both just turned positive and are now up on the day (from being negative earlier/all day) which is usually a fairly good sign on a Friday and going into next week.
Https://companiesmarketcap.com/aker-bp/marketcap/#google_vignette
Nice closing UT here today, 9.2 million barrels is certainly a notable decrease in Oil inventories, onwards and upwards.
Bloomberg
Houthis Say They’re Improving Military Might in Defiance of US
Yemen’s Houthis vowed they would keep attacking ships in the Red Sea, even after the US launched a fourth round of missiles strikes against them.
“It is an honor for our people to be in such a confrontation with these evil forces,” Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the head of the Iran-backed militant group, said in a televised speech on Thursday, citing the US, the UK and Israel. The Houthis are now in “direct confrontation” with all three and are taking steps to bolster their military capabilities, he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/houthis-say-they-re-improving-military-might-in-defiance-of-us
At the very least half (if not more) of the fall here today (whatever the final percentage may be) is an over reaction, HBR TU today was predominantly "within guidance" and with Wintershall DEA deal progressing, HBR is clearly a strong Buy and hold as now highlighted by most analysts.
Markets have been in overreaction mode all week and today here is certainly no exception, give it time, new HBR is going to be Gold.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/basf-says-government-review-wintershall-sale-expected-2024-01-18/
BERLIN, Jan 18 (Reuters) - German chemicals maker BASF (BASFn.DE), opens new tab said on Thursday that a government review of its $11.2 billion deal to give control over its energy business Wintershall Dea to Britain's Harbour Energy (HBR.L), opens new tab was standard procedure.
"The review of the transaction is in line with our usual and expected procedure," a company spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
This is normal procedure for a deal of this magnitude, it would actually be very surprising/concerning if they didn't review, UK side along with all shareholders will also do same/vote accordingly.
hbr generally has an outstanding long term outlook, and now especially post wintershall dea acquisition
- increased investment in our international growth projects which have the potential to materially increase our reserve life. this includes the exploration campaign in indonesia, where drilling of the halwa and ***o wells on the andaman ii license (harbour 40%, operator) is underway; and, in mexico, feed for the zama development and the drilling of the kan appraisal well
"Today’s update is totally irrelevant given the massive post Wintershall DEA M&A picture, by year end HBR will be the size of Aker BP, securely back in the FTSE 100, and easily more than double (if not treble+) of today’s market cap, today is only for day to day trades of whom we have a few here, like many other shares. GLA."
I agree Koko, unfortunately just bought a new car and no spare money to top up today, I wish I had the spare cash but all the best to anyone who does at the moment.
Another Solid Update Here By The Harbour Energy Team, Debt Free, Nice Dividends, Fantastic M&A, .......And A Great Year Ahead, Thank You!
Https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/inflation-shocker-the-london-rush-1.2023000
Bloomberg
Tomorrow we’ll get updates from gambling giant Flutter, investment platform AJ Bell, DIY and electronics retailers Currys and Dunelm, as well as Harbour Energy.
Some of you may remember that just before Christmas, Harbour announced a $11.2 billion deal to buy Wintershall DEA assets in countries from Argentina to Egypt. The move was praised by analysts as it diversifies Harbour’s operations beyond the UK North Sea. Harbour’s shares, however, still seem to have some way to go — they’re currently trading below an agreed issue price to Wintershall Dea investors of 360 pence apiece.
"HBR is no longer the same company (although it was still very much undervalued even before the Wintershall Dea M&A and hence the 360p agreed premium), as with any share trading, there will of course be fluctuations here along with bad or good market days but HBR SP will be lot harder to manipulate and eventually guaranteed to be easily back in the FTSE 100 post deal closure."
Exactly, now looking forward to the assets & M&A updates along with dividends and potential Capital Gains ahead.
Correct, focus should be on the company fundamentals along with sound management, and by this very year end, HBR as an investment has an absolutely outstanding rewards to risk ratio to which markets will take notice IMHO.