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Once again Tommy, you are quick to judge and respond without first reading what a contributor has written. The number of infections and hospitalisations will ONLY BE RELEVANT AS REGARDS MY SYNAIRGEN INVESTMENT, once I have definite information about the forthcoming trials.
Until then, as previously stated, these statistics may well have significance for individuals who are most likely to succumb to infection. However, should the next six months pass without a trial announcement from Synairgen, they are totally irrelevant as regards my investment.
The statistics on numbers of infections and hospitalisations are important to those of us who are likely to succumb to infection for whatever reason, or have relatives and friends in the same category.
From the point of view of my Synairgen investment, they are irrelevant for the time being. At the end of last Winter, with its own set of infection and hospitalisation statistics, I was disappointed that there was no trial announcement, as had been hinted in previous information shared by the company.
This time around there is more information about the forthcoming Phase II company trials, although the dates for their commencement currently lie somewhere within a 6-month window.
I am grateful to all contributors who offer peripheral information, and personal opinions concerning the nature and possible starting dates of these trials. My best guess, given my 41 month involvement as an investor, is that they will start early on in Q2, 2024. However, like the opinion of every other investor, until there is a definite announcement from the company, my prediction is pure speculation.
A successful outcome to the P2 trials should result in a significant share price uplift. The company would then be poised for a BP buyout offer, possibly doubling the share price. 100p is possible this year given a serendipitous combination of circumstances. Wasn't Simon Shaw alluding to something like this at the last AGM?
My thanks to all forum contributors whose research and insights have added extensively to my knowledge over the last week or so.
If the company’s detailed strategy announcement, presumably during mid to late H1, is close to that perceived by our contributors then we should be well and truly back on track.
We will know when the company has turned a corner when the share price embarks on a steady and sustained rise. Until then, we can but continue to wait until the Synairgen Board has detailed information to communicate with investors. My best guess for the timing of a significant RNS is sometime during Q2 at the earliest. Meanwhile, the company will continued to be valued according to the remainder of the shareholder investment from late 2020 that remains on deposit.
MyIPA
Thank you for your interest.
Might I suggest that you briefly consult company's posts in the LinkedIn and/or X/twitter Synairgen spaces to find out more about the company, its recent work and its future aspirations. Proactive Investors, and Synairgen's RNSs may also help to bring you up to speed. An earlier useful comment today from dippf is a concise summary of the work that is currently going on in preparation for the forthcoming company-led trials. These are expected to happen in the first half of 2024, and I am expecting two small P2 trials in the first instance.
We received excellent feedback from the last AGM from forum contributors who attended. In a private conversation with a senior Board member, we were given to understand that the accumulated data from previous company trials isn't quite enough to secure a JV agreement with a large pharmaceutical entity. However, good sets of results from the forthcoming P2s may well tip the balance in our favour, and lead to sufficient evidence to convince a potential partner to agree to that JV, which in turn will bring about the desired P3 trial. Other scenarios are, of course, possible when the desired evidence is in place.
The above is my own brief interpretation of the company's current trajectory. Others may wish to add to, or correct, my explanation of what is going on. I agree with you that should all go well with the P2s, Synairgen's star could rise again.
Nothing can be discerned from the first trades of 2024. The latest major trade on the London Stock Exchange was 209,615 @ 5.7512p.
Until the company is in a position to give the market definitive information about the nature of the forthcoming trials and their launch dates , the share price will remain an irrelevance to LTIs.
It is good to see the optimism shared by some of our forum’s contributors. The position of relatively new investors is very different from those of us who were heavily invested just prior to and after the Sprinter trial outcome. The prospects of significant profitability are far better for investors in the former category. I am hoping that the forthcoming strategy announcement will eventually produce favourable outcomes for all investors.
Manifesto.
The deletion of those posts had nothing to do with your comments IMHO. One deleted contribution by a LTI, who was well down in his investment, included something about the company which could be viewed as defamatory. I fully understand his frustration, as Synairgen have subsequently achieved nothing to benefit the share price in nearly two years.
My views on the quality of the company's leadership team have probably been overstated by now. However, all will be forgiven if their strategy results in an elevation of the share price to a level approximating to my average purchase price. Profit is no longer my target; break-even would be viewed as a something of a triumph, when compared with the morass in which my shareholding currently resides.
As ever, my best wishes to all LTIs for the coming New Year. A "Great Escape" may well be on the cards. I should add that for the present I would prefer a continuation of the CEO's long silence to another of his empty New Year statements.
I now agree with Manifesto and xviolet, and have woken up to the fact that this has been a very unusual trading day. I do not have an enhanced facility to monitor trades in real time. However, there have been in excess of 2.1m shares traded today, and the share price has dipped to the 12-month low of around 5.75p.
Surely, something is going on here? Does anyone have an idea about what is happening? Will there be a forthcoming TR-1 or RNS announcement?
The share price erosion at a relatively quiet time for the market is not surprising. The current trading range is commensurate with the company’s cash balance. The burn rate is high for a company of this size due to the disproportionate number of senior executives in relation to the company’s size and effective market impact over the last 22 months.
A detailed and informative statement concerning the forthcoming company P2 trials could well be a game changer .
Let us hope that there will be a positive development regarding our investment early in the coming New Year. IMHO it would be better if the CEO continues to remain silent until he has something to share with us rather than issuing another meaningless “jam tomorrow as a result of our team’s Herculean effort” statement.
My best wishes to all LTIs for an improvement in our respective Synairgen investments in the coming year.
Another highly relevant quote, from Ernest Rutherford :
“We haven't got the money, so we've got to think!”
We can but hope that the current pared down strategy from Synairgen will ultimately benefit all investors, LTI’s in particular. We should know more about its progress at the start of 2024.
" Swing traders readying themselves for the start of a new year."
Wrong again. It is reasonable though to assume that you are one of two company employees who contribute to this board to discredit the comments of long term investors, who are by now disaffected by the lack of progress made by your employers over nearly two years. You may even be the same person with multiple accounts!
I certainly hope not although it seems logical. The year is ending and the company has not convinced the market that it has made any progress this year. Moreover, it has maintained a very high number of senior executives in relation to its size, and dwindling cash balance. It is difficult to justify all their roles, although the CEO and Board are intent on keeping them all, and even adding to the team?
It is interesting to read about the latest research which supports the potential effectiveness of various Ifn-beta therapies, and the grants that are available to conduct appropriate trials. However, the former does not relate directly to Synairgen, and for nearly two years the company has failed to secure funding for further trials, or find a larger entity to foster a mutually beneficial partnership going forward.
Frankly, I am disappointed that there hasn't yet been an RNS to announce the start of the trials early in 2024. The company have had little else to do in nearly two years. During this time we have seen no achievement whatsoever that has stimulated the share price. A further bland and pointless statement from Mr. Marsden in the New Year will only add insult to injury. His previous statement a year ago amounted to nothing. I am at the point of writing off my investment here as a total failure. I will not sell my stock, but at this point in time regret my involvement with a company, who undoubtedly have an excellent product, but appear to lack the expertise to take it through a successful series of trials leading to commercialisation.
My best Christmas and New Year's wishes to all LTIs. It is a shame that we all invested so much in a company with such weak leadership.
As part of his 2023 New Year's message Richard Marsden stated:
" The Synairgen team, and our partners and advisors, have been working relentlessly to identify the optimal clinical development programme to confirm the signals we have seen, and investigate SNG001 against the wide spectrum of respiratory viruses."
We can but hope that next year's message will contain details of the clinical development programme that emerged from their relentless activity.
" Do you have each other on speed dial Doc D or is it just a quick change of usernames?"
TommyD_19. I have unfiltered you, by the way, since I accidentally read some of your recent comments. You have recently become obsessively unreasonable, bordering on paranoid, concerning the acceptable dialogue conducted by most of the contributors to this forum.
When will you understand that we are not de-rampers or short term sellers? This is a "Synairgen Share Chat" space, where investors can conduct a reasonable conversation. Is it surprising that most of us are extremely disappointed with the lack of success from the CEO and Board in nearly two years? The publication of scientific papers, based on past trials, during that time has done NOTHING to enhance the share price! Neither have the many presentations at overseas conferences; nor has all the paid for advertising through podcasts, SCIAM conversations, ITV documentaries etc.
During this time, there have been vague references by the CEO to forthcoming trials. NOT ONE of these has materialised to date, and he has always pushed it forward to a future broad unspecified time - next Winter, H1 2024 etc. Is there any wonder that investors are frustrated by the lack of action from this company?
Grow up Tommy. The disaffected on here are not shorters , or de-rampers, with multiple accounts as you have falsely claimed many times on this forum. We are frustrated investors, who wish to see this company achieve something positive after nearly two years of promising without delivering anything to date. The share price should not be where it is today had the company followed a coherent strategic route to another trial following the misfortune of Sprinter.
As ever, my best wishes to all Synairgen LTIs. Nothing would please me more than to finally see an improvement in the current share price following some positive achievement from the company.
“Aren’t replacements committed funds anyway?”
A replacement was unnecessary as Synairgen already had Helen Gearing in the senior leadership team. The company probably doesn’t need two senior finance executives to manage its current low-level financial activity.
The CMO was not a replacement. He was already on board as a consultant. Was it necessary to commit dwindling funds on creating a CMO position with no significant trials or interaction with larger biopharmaceutical entities on the near horizon? Additionally, he was on board as an advisor during the Sprinter trial, which hardly enhances his credibility?
I agree with Doc.D. If Synairgen want to retain credibility with current and future investors, they must implement their strategy during H1 2024.
Recently they committed 0.6m p.a. by hiring a replacement CFO, and CMO. A total misspend from their dwindling cash reserve IMHO unless the company P2s go ahead imminently. They already have four senior executives on the payroll with very little to get on with since 2021!
Should the CEO announce yet another delay in the New Year, then Synairgen may lose any remaining credibility that they retain with the market at large. From my perspective, and that of other LTIs, they have achieved NOTHING AT ALL that has had a positive impact on the share price in nearly two years. Scientific papers based on past trials are of little value, other than adding to the immense cache of data supporting the case for the use of interferon-beta in treating the onset of respiratory viruses.
It is high time for the CEO and the board to stop dithering, and get the small trials underway. At this point in time, anything less than this isn’t good enough!
Good wishes to all long suffering Synairgen LTIs
“ I’m firmly of the opinion we have funds available to cover the current plans for the P2’s. Beyond that, it’ll surely be a JV or taken off us entirely.”
You have summed it up Doc83. Reading the comments from PIs here, Synairgen really needs to get these P2s underway as soon as it is reasonably possible. The last thing we want is yet another vague statement from the CEO, at the start of next year, kicking the can further down the road. This has been the case for nearly two years.
It is nearly three years since we read about “Synairgen needing a fire to put out”. High time to get the trials done to establish the fact that it actually does this for once and for all! The sooner it happens, the better it will be for all PIs.
Have a great week everyone.
I agree with jonnyboy33 in that I haven’t much of a clue as to where the SNG share price could end up? My current sell target for this stock is my own speculative figure, with no rationale to it other than a crude reasoning based on past precedent.
It is reasonable to assume that the share price will move higher if stimulated by a positive RNS concerning the start of the company P2s. Should the latter prove to be successful we may be looking at recovering some or even all of the depreciation in the value of our shares that most LTIs suffered last year? Investors, who have appropriately averaged down may yet do well?
All this is mere speculation on my part. I won’t have much of a clue until we are considerably further ahead with the forthcoming trials, and even beyond that point?
“The P2 trials only have 50 people or less.”
I cannot find any reference (from Synairgen) specifying the number of patients in each P2 trial cohort. I would appreciate any confirmed information, from a fellow forum contributor, concerning the P2 trials other than they might happen in H1 2024 subject to the identification of the trial protocols, and regulatory approval being granted for the trials to proceed?
This was part of a company statement from last September which embraced various possibilities.
“ Subject to this preparatory work and regulatory approval timelines, trials are anticipated to start in H1 2024.”
We must all draw our own conclusions from this. Nothing whatsoever has happened to benefit the share price since TFG Holdings chose to increase their Synairgen percentage shareholding way back in March 2022.
I am in full agreement with investors, who believe that we may have a long wait ahead of us. “Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best” is my current take on my investment here.
Have a good day everybody.