Member Info for The_Frog

Agreed iceberg. At the moment the share price just reflects the overhang from the 4.5p placing, rather than the value of the assets. Patience is key while the overhang clears.

Isomer. Don't agree. The AA option remains until either the 2 million tonnes is hit or a decision to mine is made. Not much point in someone else buying Bushranger with the AA option in place.

I think an interesting scenario is if xtr are somewhat short of the 2 million tonnes from this drill campaign, do they drill other prospects (Footrot, Southern Intrusions) or do they take the decision to mine on Racecourse noting the very low capex snd AISC would mean the economics are good? This would force Anglo to make a decision on the option - either Anglo buy 80% for a cash lump sum which is great for xtr, or Anglo decline and xtr can develop alone or sell freed from the buyback option also a good outcome.

Also worth bearing in mind that there are other porphyry targets on the tenement subject to the Anglo buyback - Footrot, Southern Intrusions - which should add to the resource when drilled.

Agreed. I would really like to hear from the new NED, Jeremy Read. He appears highly credible, particularly when it comes to our Bushranger asset. Anyone with a contact into the company able to put in a request?

If you look at the Bushranger presentation the 80% buyback options relates to tenement EL5574 which includes both Racecourse and Footrot. I would be interested to know if it would be worthwhile drilling a few holes in Footrot before the 2 million tonne JORC is hit so that more value is attributed to Footrot in the independent valuation. As someone said below, we're getting a bit ahead of ourselves but the tactics around the Anglo buyback are fascinating.

I calculated that Boda discovery resulted in more than £100m increase in Alkane market cap, rather than A$...

From the price action it looked to me like some large background sells were made shortly after the RNS at around 5p or 5.1p. I'm assuming these will pop up after hours. This put a dampner on the share price despite plenty of buying. Presumably this is more placing shares being flipped for a quick profit.

The below link sounds like BRD001. Not sure it tells us much about the hole though.

https://detcrc.com.au/top-ten/anglo-american-collaborates-in-first-deployment-of-lab-at-rig-in-an-exploration-setting/

Steve. On BRD001, it looks like they recorded mineralisation down to 306m (as per page 7 of the Bushranger presentation), but the hole went much deeper - see for example this diagram: https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/8229M_3-2021-1-25.pdf

If I'm understanding iceberg correctly, he is wondering why they kept on going much deeper, despite not reporting more mineralisation. Intriguing...

I had wondered why that drill went so deep also. A long shot, but does the below from some of the RNSs give any clues iceberg?

"The Phase One drilling programme will follow up drill intersections such as 159m @ 0.4% Cu and 0.2g/t Au in drill hole BRD001 and 169m @ 0.4% Cu and 0.1g/t Au in drill hole BRD009 (as previously announced these drill results have not yet been independently tested or verified by Xtract) and investigate the zonation of higher gold grades within the Racecourse Mineral Resource"

Steve. I agree on the impressive pace. It feels to me like it is being driven by Jeremy Read, the ex BHP explo guy who sold Bushranger to xtr and is now director and substantial shareholder in xtr. He and Doug Menzies, the geologist and porphyry expert quoted in the last rns, are both directors of Godolphin Resources, another Lachlan Fold Belt, so presumably know each other and the geology well. They seem like an excellent team to be driving the drilling efforts at pace.

ThePunter1. That is what I meant. Prove up the 2m tonne resource so that Anglo's option is triggered. It forces Anglo to make a decision. Either Anglo buy the 80% for circa $384m according to Cornford and xtr keeps 20% interest which will almost certainly be developed - great outcome. Or Anglo decline in which case xtr have 100% and its game on for others to acquire - also good outcome. The key is therefore proving up the 2m tonnes Cu eq. The Anglo option gives xtr a way of cashing out rather than simply waiting for takeover.

News. Anglo only get 50% of sale proceeds above $100k if any of the other Anglo tenements are sold within 3 years. It looks to me like an anti-embarrassment clause for Anglo.

I would imagine most money and effort will be invested in EL5574 in the short term to try and trigger the Anglo buyback on 80%.

If xtr do explore the other tenements, it would make sense to hold off on any sale until Anglo's claim on 50% expires in 2023.

Thanks Andrew.

The thing that struck me is how low the capex was at US 75 million. I'm sure it would increase with a larger operation but still low. Add to that a low AISC and a much bigger deposit, and you can see how the economics would be pretty impressive and obviously mean the deposit is commercial which is the game changer.

I'm clearly repeating what a few have been saying in recent days but the numbers helped bring it home to me.

Fascinatingly I have found a scoping study for Bushranger from 2011 when it was owned by Lachlan Star. This says that the project was economic in the last copper bull market even though resources were less than half what is booked today. Capital costs estimated at A$ 98 million. I'm not knowledgable enough to work out AISC from the numbers provided. Interesting to note low cut off grades used. This scoping study surely bodes very well for xtr given the resource is going to increase significantly as a result of drill success and we are in another copper bull market. This validates some of the discussion from iceberg and others yesterday also (not that I was in any doubt).

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload%3Fid%3DtuE7JrfFgm%252FOGe3kZXCYEW%252F2TEVf4Ai%252Fzw311o9YkqsjTevSSYocXApvbUamxg5J3z8ubI5McZuzod3LAIw3yeEjZA%253D%253D&ved=2ahUKEwi1yvKA-rzuAhWho3EKHac-Bi4QFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw087FaisuqdVfUwSR8buhND

I understood that footrot is on EL5574 which is the tenement subject to the Anglo 80% buyback (see page 6 of Bushranger presentation).

This is good in my view as it increases the probability of xtr triggering the buyback.

Thanks News. Has Colin indicated in any of his interviews when Footrot might be drilled? Understandably Racecourse is the focus, but it would be fascinating to learn more about Footrot.

Me too Steve. This is definitely placing churn. To be honest get it out of the way before assays and more drill results.

Date of birth according to Companies House Nov 1943, so 77.

Thanks Iceberg. Agree with your points. I wasn't discounting the copper, I was just interested in the higher gold in this type of deposit comment. Hold for gold as they say - literally in this case!!