RE: Same Old, Same Old...24 Nov 2022 09:49
Vosgi, see latest Auctus note:
Solid 3Q22 Financial update. Raising FY22 revenue guidance • 3Q22 sales volumes were 1,313 boe/d (1,208 boe/d production). This is very close to our forecast of 1,423 boe/d. • 3Q22 revenue was US$9.6 mm, also very close to our expectations of US$10.6 mm. Operating income for the period was US$7.9 mm (we expected US$8.9 mm). • 3Q22 production was marginally impacted by temporary shut-ins due to planned frac-protect procedures on existing wells while new nearby wells were completed. 26 additional wells are forecast to be brought on production over the next six months, which will help to decrease typical Williston Basin portfolio decline rates. • Zephyr is upgrading its FY22 revenue forecast to US$40-45 mm (US$3540 mm previously – we forecast US$45 mm) with the FY22 production guidance of 0.50-0.55 mmboe unchanged. • The upcoming 3 well drilling programme could take our Core NAV to £0.25/sh. A successful well test at State 36-2 LNW-CC well would confirm the commerciality of up to 32 mmboe net contingent resources (unrisked NAV of £0.11 per share). The second well of the campaign (State 36-3 LN-C9) would derisk a further ~25 mmboe net resources in a different reservoir. We reiterate our target price of £0.16 per share. Reflections on funding strategy The Williston assets performance showcases the funding strategy of Zephyr. Rather than raising expensive equity against the Paradox assets (appraisal stage), Zephyr has minimized dilution by raising a smaller amount of equity to acquire producing assets at attractive prices, whose cashflow is deployed on the Paradox assets. This strategy also allows the company (1) to access to debt, otherwise not available for appraisal assets and (2) to improve the risk profile of the overall business. Over the last 18 months, the Williston assets have generated ~USS$30 mm of operating profit. This represents 1.5x the amount of equity (~US$20 mm) raised or deployed in the Williston portfolio. Over the period, Zephyr has drilled and tested a key appraisal well in the Paradox (total net capex ~US$10 mm) but still has ~US$18.5 mm in available liquidity, while the Williston assets continue to generate ~US$2.5 mm per month of operating income. Valuation We estimate that the share price implies EV/DACF of 3x in 2023. Our ReNAV stands at ~£0.16 per share.