Member Info for Tharisa

Mike, the MRMR gets published with the annual report, it is most definitely not omitted

Phoevos Pouroulis, CEO of Tharisa, commented:

“At Tharisa, we have consciously chosen to be developers of mines. Building mines is not easy, as it takes time, patience, capital and the conviction to invest through commodity and economic cycles. We believe that employing a strategy of mine development creates a solid foundation to successfully deliver on our strategy of growth and innovation by challenging convention from the outset.

In reviewing the past year, considering the challenges faced not only from the inflationary and operational increases in our cost structure, power supply constraints and the rail and port logistics failure, the co-product business model of the Tharisa Mine once again has reflected and shown continuous resilience.

The suppressed PGM basket price has far-reaching consequences to primary supply, with employment, expansion and investment all at risk. After a strategic review, we extended the Karo Platinum Project development timeline by 12 months to June 2025. We will keep this matter under review, and should conditions improve, we have the flexibility to accelerate development.

The structural damage to the PGM supply side will be felt for some time and will ultimately result in an upward shift in prices. While current markets are volatile and unpredictable, we believe in the medium-term outlook for PGMs underpinned by a supply-side constrained economy with new and growing applications of these precious metals.

The chrome market remains robust driven by stable demand fundamentals.

At Tharisa, our margins remain healthy due to our mechanised low-cost operations, with a continued disciplined capital allocation strategy, ensuring investment in our existing businesses, innovation and providing sustainable growth and returns to shareholders. Moreover, our investment in solar power and Redox One battery technology will improve the sustainability of our operations and enable us to deliver our decarbonisation objectives

Through continuous optimisation at the Tharisa Mine, investment in downstream beneficiation, and our commitment to developing the long-term Tier 1 Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe, our strategy to grow the Group is intact.”

Growing sustainability from a robust operational base driving financial performance

Key Highlights

• Safety:

o The health and safety of our stakeholders remains a core value to the Group and Tharisa continues to strive for zero harm at its operations

o LTIFR

 0.13 per 200 000-man hours worked (Tharisa Minerals)

 0.26 per 200 000-man hours worked (Karo Platinum)

• Operations:

o Annual PGM production at 144.7 koz (FY2022: 179.2 koz)

o Average PGM basket price of US$1 893/oz (FY2022: US$2 564/oz), down 26.2%

o Chrome production at 1 580.1 kt (FY2022: 1 582.7 kt)

o Average metallurgical grade chrome price of US$263/t (FY2022: US$209/t), up 25.8%

• Corporate actions:

o Increased shareholding in Karo Mining Holdings to 75.0%

o Tharisa will increase its shareholding in Karo Mining Holdings to 80.0% in FY2024 with balance of committed equity investments - effective 68.0% in the Karo Platinum Project

• Financials:

o Revenue decreased 5.3% to US$649.9 million (FY2022: US$686.0 million)

o EBITDA of US$136.8 million (FY2022: US$237.3 million)

o Profit before tax of US$114.3 million (FY2022: US$220.2 million)

o Earnings per share of US 27.4 cents (FY2022: US 53.8 cents)

o Free cash flow of US$78.8 million

o Final dividend of US 2 cents per share proposed, bringing total dividend to US 5 cents per share, 17.3% of NPAT

o Net cash position of US$129.4 million

• Mine to Megawatt

o Accelerated development of iron chromium redox flow long duration battery through wholly owned subsidiary, Redox One.

o 40MW Solar project environmental approvals in place and project completion scheduled for Q2 FY2025

• Guidance for FY2024:

o Production guidance for FY2024 is set between 145 koz and 155 koz PGMs (6E basis) and 1.7 Mt to 1.8 Mt of chrome concentrates.

 

The dividend is directly related to the NPAT, which, let's be frank, is largely riven by commodity prices, we do not cut the dividend, we have a dividend policy, which we have exceeded every year since we paid dividends

We have committed to the div policy, surely that is an excellent way of returning cash to shareholders

Peel Hunt

Tharisa#: Trading update better than we expected

• Tharisa has announced expected headline EPS of USc27.5-USc28.5 for FY23, which is noticeably higher than our own adjusted EPS estimate of USc24.5.

• We take this as a signal that group profitability is stronger than we expected, despite the lower PGM prices realised in recent months.

• The shares reman cheap in our view, trading at 2.2x FY24E EV/EBITDA and just 2.9x PE despite offering strong cash generation.

We continue to view Tharisa’s co-product PGM/Chrome mine as a high margin, high cash generating asset. We believe it is more than capable of funding the Karo development while maintaining dividend payments. We reiterate our Buy rating and 195p TP.

Berenberg

● Tharisa has released a trading statement ahead of next week’s full-year results (to be released on or about 14 December according to the company). EPS on a fully diluted basis is guided to USD0.27-0.28 (+/-10%), with headline earnings per share (HEPS) on a fully diluted basis guided to USD0.275-0.285 (+/-10%), above our USD0.21 estimate for EPS and HEPS. EPS and HEPS are down by between c48%-50% and c31-33% respectively relative to FY 2022, due to lower platinum group metal (PGM) basket prices and weaker production on the back of lower recoveries and ore throughput, as outlined in Tharisa’s full-year production update released on 17 October, which we covered in a note available here. Tharisa has reiterated in today’s statement its commitment to its capital allocation strategy, including the dividend policy of distributing at least 15% of consolidated net profit after tax, and to its Karo PGM development project in Zimbabwe. As previously announced, the commissioning of Karo has been delayed to June 2025 in light of PGM market weakness, which we view as a prudent risk-management decision.

● Platinum finds a level: Platinum prices have found support around the (albeit weak) USD900/oz level, with the World Platinum Investment Council forecasting the deepest market deficit on record in 2023 as autocatalyst recycling rates have remained subdued (down by 16% yoy) while industrial and automotive demand have picked up (both up by 14% yoy). We think continued supply disruptions and cost curve support will likely underpin platinum prices in 2024, with the market expected to experience a consecutive year of deficit – a key driver for better prices will be how above ground stocks are worked down. While PGM prices are weak, it is important to note that Tharisa has the diversification of chrome co-production, which has supported cashflow generation while PGM prices have been weak. We now forecast that 68% of group revenues in FY 2023 will come from chrome and similar levels in FY 2024-25, providing added support as Tharisa executes its development strategy and works to bring Karo online in 2025.

Trading statement – Results for the year ended 30 September 2023

In terms of section 3.4(b) of the JSE Listings Requirements, companies are required to provide guidance

to the market when they are satisfied that a reasonable degree of certainty exists that the financial results

for the current reporting period will differ by at least 20% from the results of the previous corresponding

reporting period.

A production update for the financial year ended 30 September 2023 was released on the JSE Stock

Exchange News Service and LSE Regulatory News Service on 17 October 2023. This highlighted lower PGM

basket prices for the year but higher chrome concentrate prices and stated that the timeline for Karo

Platinum project development had been revised as a direct result of the weak PGM prices and volatile

macro economic conditions in order to provide flexibility and to align with funding availability.

Tharisa's basic earnings per share ('EPS') for the financial year ended 30 September 2023 on a fully diluted

basis is expected to be between US 27 cents and US 28 cents with a tolerance of 10%, a decrease of

between 47.9% and 49.8% relative to the EPS of US 53.8 cents per share for the previous year.

Tharisa's headline earnings per share ('HEPS') for the financial year ended 30 September 2023 on a fully

diluted basis is expected to be between US 27.5 cents and US 28.5 cents with a tolerance of 10%, a

decrease of between 30.7% and 33.1% relative to the HEPS of US 41.1 cents per share for the previous

year.

The Tharisa plc Board and Audit Committee remain committed to the Company's existing capital

allocation strategy, including its dividend policy of distributing at least 15% of consolidated net profit after

tax, and to the Karo Platinum development project.

The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not been reviewed by the

Company's auditors.

The results of the Company will be released on or about 14 December 2023.

Results date TBC as per website, just wrapping up consolidation of group accounts, will have preso of course, would not trust any other site for dates most of them use an algorithm to work out y-2-y what dates results will be

Last night close calc

Tharisa Basket Price

Platinum $895.00

Palladium $1 133.50

Rhodium $4 662.08

Gold $1 925.83

Ruth $396.47

Iridium $4 660.20

Karo USD $1 263.46

Tharisa USD $1 423.36

Tharisa ZAR R26 675.53

We have load curtailment and not load shedding, and given we are a low user of power, on site, we have been fine as evidenced by our milling numbers, the solar far, we are not building, we are merely a sole user of the plant, and will enter into a PPA, there was an update by our partners on Friday, also posted on this chat site,

To build Tharisa,in today's terms will be $500m, never mind the $530m that we have spent on capex to keep the mine going, on capital, while Karo is being extended, we are spending money, but in smaller chunks, so think of it as instead of buyign a Lego box with all parts, we are buying smaller parts where we can and ensure that in 12 months later time, we are ready to assemble it all, big contract outstanding is the mining one but we are of course talking to parties and have detailed terms etc, but with a mining contrcator, the upfront mobilizations is key and the capex spent on that, so that is one area where we have not as yet committed in terms of monies

We have spent and committed, ie, signed contract etc of over 1/3, which is a lot given the major spend is the mining contractor, which we have not as yet signed, so good progress on the spend

On PGM, remember, we still building up to vol again in the pit with the waste contractor, so have been buying in ROM material from other chrome producers, which is oxidised ore, which is great for chrome output and visible in our recoveries, but not so good for PGm production, again, visible in the recoveries, so the guidance is prudent to where we would have been had we had our own ore in totality, rather than a mix of our own ore and buying in other material,

Quarter highlights

‒ Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (‘LTIFR’) of 0.11 per 200 000-man hours worked

‒ Annual output

‒ Chrome production for the year at 1 580.1 kt (FY2022: 1 582.7 kt) with Q4 at 413.4 kt (Q3 FY2023 378.8 kt)

‒ PGM production for the year at 144.7 koz (FY2022: 179.2) with Q4 at 30.7 koz (Q3 FY2023: 37.0 koz)

‒ Strong increase in reef mining volumes quarter on quarter, up 27.5% to 1 158.9 kt (Q3 FY2023: 908.8 kt)

‒ Average annual metallurgical grade chrome concentrate prices up 26.3% at US$263/t (FY2022: US$209/t)

‒ Significant quarter-on-quarter PGM price decrease of 21.5% to US$ 1 331/oz (Q3 FY2023: US$ 1 695/oz) (6E basis) accelerated the annual price retreat of 26.2% with average prices received at US$1 893/oz (FY2022: US$2 564/oz)

‒ The continued weakening of PGM prices and macro economics has resulted in a prudent and strategic decision to extend the Karo Platinum Project timeline for commissioning by 12 months to June 2025, with the opportunity to accelerate the timeline as markets become more favourable

‒ The Karo Platinum Project has progressed well, and the revised timeline is aligned to funding availability and provides flexibility

‒ Group cash on hand increased to US$268.8 million (30 June 2023: US$242.6 million), and debt of US$142.2 million (30 June 2023: US$101.1 million), resulting in a net cash position of US$126.6 million (30 June 2023: US$141.5 million)

‒ Production guidance for FY2024 is set between 145 koz and 155 koz PGMs (6E basis) and 1.7 Mt to 1.8 Mt of chrome concentrates

https://www.overend.co.za/download/sens-rns-tharisa-q4-fy2023-production-report-final-with-logo-17oct23.pdf

Https://twitter.com/sino_market/status/1712383304333427095?s=48&t=KWQbOOr1guo0pPbcpvroUQ

Sure, storage key to any energy issue, we do have some research on this but nothing commercial thus far

At Tharisa we require some 25MW, so fully covered, same at Karo, but the Karo project will feed the grid and we tap from the grid, whereas at Tharisa it will be a PPA directly to us

What questions are those Mike pls, so we can prepare and be proactive about answering them

We still publish the same prices, every week, on our website, just X is a little bit all over the show and our feed was not what we were expecting, so take a break rather than provide a platform for nonsense

Exactly right, we get compared on the PGM cost curve but all the analysts ignore that we are a co product producer, so cost per ton is what counts