We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Tuesday, June 1, 2021 - 16:00
SWISS RESOURCE CAPITAL ROADSHOW - 1ST JUNE 2021
Condor Gold virtual live roadshow! Nicaragua’s next gold producer is rocking with an annual permitted 100,000 oz gold production from their 3 open pits. Date: Tuesday, 1st June 2021 on 5.00 PM Swiss time
Free Registration link: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/270/5v7y0a02
Jochen Staiger is hilarious - Not sure if the audience can post questions in this link, I sincerely hope so after this mornings announcement..
regards
T123
Regarding options:
Mark Child - 1,250,000- fair enough, he has worked 24/7 here for over ten years!
Jim Mellon - 400,000 - fair enough, he has backed the company to the hilt
Kate Harcourt, 300,000 - What for? IFC are out of this share so what do you do Kate?
Andrew Cheatle, 300,000 - Never heard a peep from you for years Andrew - what do you do for CNR? Never even heard you mention the company in an interview
Ian Stalker, 400,000 - Why? You are too busy with other commitments to even bother with CNR
David Crawford - CTO, 340,000 - Again, what exactly are you doing for CNR?
Other employees and consultants - 1,210,000 - I'd like to see a breakdown tbh, but I think this should incentivise company employees to get the company producing gold and raise the SP as soon as possible!
I would like to hear from these NED's on what exactly they contribute to CNR to deserve such generous options..
Very disappointed not to see an update on Cacao or EPCM contract award before the roadshow tonight - why the delay!
regards
T123
cambells - I think its pretty nailed on that we will get an RNS tomorrow, then a discussion of what it means with Jochen Steiger tomorrow night.. it could be the announcement of an EPCM contract being agreed as MC was in Tucson last time we saw him (Lycopodium or Tierra Group) but my guess is that it will be the first batch of Cacao drilling results.. why is that important?
1) At a 3km strike length and with reported vein widths as wide and as good as anything they have seen at La India (we need to see what the assay g/t results are), we could see the potential at Cacao for at least 1Moz to add to the resource.
2) Im interested to understand the depths at which these occur.. There is already a 60koz open pit resource on Cacao, but if the vein was shallow enough, I wonder if they could do the whole thing as Open Pit, which would be cheaper than underground.. of course, if the grades are good enough, say 10-15g/t - the economics of underground would be just fine anyway! plus - seems to be a lot easier to permit an underground mine, assuming all the other permits for the La India mine are already done and would already apply i.e TSF, Site Wide Water balance etc..
In my mind, I think MC is just too cautious - with gold prices at 1900, the plan should be to maximise production ASAP.. so install the larger motor for the SAG mill from the get go - dont faff with a two stage approach.. more throughput to get them to 120koz per year from Y1.. then bring in underground at La India (and maybe Cacao) for 170k-200koz per year..
But 2 things still make me cautious here - 1) RB selling his stake is holding back the SP at c.50p 2) General elections in Nic in November could be a flashpoint in the country.. if/when those are removed, I will be adding more here as the project gets financed and progresses towards production..
regards
T123
Thanks CF - Ive signed up. Jochen is one of the best presenters ever. He has been trying to drum up enthusiasm for CNR for many years now.. I wonder what he will do when they finally start pouring gold...
I wonder if MC is expecting to release the first Cacao results on Tuesday am to talk about them on the virtual roadshow with Jochen. If they are bonanza grade, Jochen may self combust. In any case, its worth a watch.
In the meantime, RB share overhang continues to prevent this going above 50p for any period of time.
regards,
T123
I suppose we can speculate all day - Perhaps MC and JM want to drill out Cacao first to get the extra million ounce of resources, while waiting for studies to complete and FS to be done to show the actual economics as they stand at the moment (not from the 6.5 year old PFS).. thereby giving a better bargaining position for a sale price - e.g 3-3.5Moz, $700 AISC, 100koz pa at X profit etc.. potential for 5Moz at least.. FM might have tipped them the nod to do this and thats what spurred on JM's latest fundraise for the SAG mill and the Cacao drilling..
But the RB selling overhang is a right pain and I want it gone ASAP!
regards,
T123
As you know, I hope this will be the case... However what I cant understand is why FM doesnt just buy RB's remaining shares at 50p in an off book deal? Instead of RB dripping them onto the market at 50p every time this rises a bit and killing the momentum, and limiting FM upside for their issue at 50p for payment for the SAG Mill... Its infuriating.. Im beginning to wonder if RB isnt being a bit machavellian here - i.e hold the SP at 50p for 200days then make an offer to buy the whole thing for 75p a share at a "50% premium" to the prevailing 200dma which he has been artificially manipulating!
Any buys under 50p here should do well longer term unless the country completely descends into chaos, and even then... look at other producers in Mali etc.. I still think there are 6 months here until studies complete, BFS released and financing agreed, culminating with a hopefully peaceful and straightforward Nic General Election and then CNR is off to the races..
regards
T123
Simms - yes exactly my point from last night. Big seller (Ross Beaty we think) at 50p level which is holding CNR back despite any progress or good drill results announced.
Here’s my thought though - if RB is happy to sell at 50p and First Majestic are happy to buy at 50p after due diligence.. does anyone see a solution here? What a bargain for anyone to scoop up 3M shares at 50p for a company that in 3 years will produce 170koz a year and will end up with 5Moz+ of high grade gold resources - and yes it could be a risk given the location and timing of the elections etc, but £1.5M could easily turn into £15M in a few years.. I’m very surprised no one has offered to just buy the £1.5M worth in an off market deal from RB yet!!
Regards
T123
RR - interesting to see a couple of biggish sells of 50k and 25k at 51p levels going into the close there.. If it is him selling, we are back into the RB selling zone... any overhang could delay the CNR rise around here for a while... just have to wait and see what happens.. impossible to know for definite of course, unless we get a further holdings RNS..
regards
T123
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPhqU--Mq1A
Gold is currently showing why its been the undisputed world heavyweight champion for the past 5000 years.. and its only just limbering up for the weigh in.. Nothing to do now but sit back and enjoy the show.. we still have 12 rounds to go here..
regards,
T123
Gold moving up strongly today - smashed through the 1790 and 1800 resistance, a close above 1800 and I think the next stop could be 1855 ish.
It illustrates perfectly the points I have been making recently though - I bought into POLY last week in time to collect the 4% dividend today and timed it well with the rise in gold as well so Im also up 5% or so on that as well - given that we all expect the gold price to head back up to $2000 and beyond, the equivalent complete lack of movement in the CNR SP today shows that I think my PF defo needs exposure to more producers over the next two years while CNR gets its act together with financing, construction etc..
regards
T123
EL - as everyone knows I already have a large holding here, so Im not saying that Condor is not a good medium/long term prospect, far from it. All I am saying is that with timescales till first production being continually pushed out, other than the potential for a cheeky bid coming in, i think the upside is limited here for a while. Also, the elections in November represent a risk that I cant ignore. Toll milling seems to be stalling as well, and even if a deal could be done with Mako, its likely to mean less free cashflow than a bigger deal with Calibre.
But I still believe that inflation in other commodities will transfer to gold in the 2nd half of this year, and when it gets started, we could see a return to 70's style inflation before interest rates rise to try to curb it (see Janet Yellens announcement yesterday about just that in USA) - so in the meantime, for any further funds I wish to invest, I will be concentrating on gold producers like POLY, CEY, AAZ and possibly silver producers like FRES as well - along with near term producers on AIM like PUR. I also like RIO and BHP etc for exposure to base metals..
Doesnt mean I dont think CNR will be a great success story, but I think its going to take a while (18 months - 2 years) to come to fruition.. Of course, I could be wrong and the market takes off with CNR as it produces excellent Cacao results etc, but after 10 years of waiting for that, I have to try to diversify a bit more.. And if it does take off, I will still have my stock here to take advantage, so its fine! If I didnt already have so much invested here, would I be initially buying at these levels, even with the risks / further dilution on the horizon? Yes, probably!
regards,
T123
Just noticed that Pure gold was mentioned over the weekend, I have been looking at them recently as a near term producer who should get over the initial production setbacks... To recap, their phase 1 plan is as follows:
•Throughput: 800 tpd
• 12 year mine life
• 80 koz avg. annual production
• Peak at 125 koz/yr (13.7 g/t Au) while mining 8-Zone
•Costs projected are $787 per ounce.
•Current market cap is $500MCAD or around £300M.
In comparison, CNR phase 1 (in 2.5 years) will be:
•Throughput 2300 tpd
•100k oz pa Year 1
•$700 AISC
•Increasing to 120koz pa with upgraded SAG motor
• MCAP ???
Mind you Canada vs Nicaragua as a jurisdiction to operate in is a major consideration! I think PUR are accurately priced by the market at the moment and I dont see a lot of downsides from here on assuming they execute their plan now.. 70p buy in looks good there for me and possibly a better place for funds to grow over the next two years than here while CNR waits for production to happen..
regards,
T123
From the video, Mako have about 500tpd spare capacity until late 2022 apparently.. from my understanding for a 40koz pa toll deal that MC was targeting with Calibre, they needed about 1000tpd. So a reduced amount of 500tpd for 18 months would probably yield about 30koz of gold sales.. probably $1000-1200 profit depending on gold prices, so $30-35M, split 50/50 I would think.. Potentially $15-18M of cash flow for Condor.. enough to pay for their share of the La India mine costs? I would take any cashflow whatsoever at this point.. its long overdue!
regards
T123
Wow - One of (if not ) THE best explanation(s) of the worldwide money and banking markets (inc Central banks, digital currencies and why they are causing so much trouble in asset prices) I have ever seen.. what a clever and honest guy.. More than enough good reasons in this one youtube video alone for me to hold physical metal outside of the system.. Talk about educating ourselves nero - wow - watch this one! And btw its why I still think CNR has unbelievable value in its physical resources in the ground.. it just needs to start getting it out and selling it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8j51XZegsk
regards
T123
For a long time we have complained that MC hasn't published a roadmap with a timeline to production. After his comments at presentations this year, i think we now know exactly why he hasn't.. because any 1st gold pour timelines have moved out massively from previous projections, and all the talk of early cashflow from a 40koz toll mill deal with Calibre has apparently come to nought.. If he was to publish a roadmap of timelines now that said roughly mid 2023 until first production, I think the SP would tank again.. as the market knows a 2 year time period will mean yet more dilution and fund raising has to be on the way..
One can only hope that Cacao drilling finds a decent high grade resource to add to the existing 2.4Moz almost like a twin sister of the existing La India vein set thats been concealed to date, but again, I still dont think the market would care.. Needs a cheeky 80p bid coming in perhaps after 100% land acquired to move this up I think.. Not that MC would sell but it might spark a bidding war / put CNR on the map for M+A activity.. With all the money they are making with the gold prices at $1750, the mid tiers and majors have to now be looking at replenishing reserve ounces by buying cheap explorers with large high grade resources with low AISC costs, just like CNR..
regards,
T123
I think whats annoyed me most to date this year, is that 2021 was supposed to mark the construction financing agreement and commencement of building the mine for a 12 month period. Now, thats been pushed back to happen in 2022 with a build period of greater than 12 months as its apparently much harder to do it in Nicaragua than they thought (they being probably Lycopodium as preferred EPCM contractors - watch this space).. And so, production has now been pushed back to probably mid 2023 at the earliest. Could the SP rise significantly before then? Of course it could, but probably not till early 2023 just before first production, so in 2 years time.. With 500k shares here, every further year that this doesnt perform/produce gold I am losing about 7% in dividend returns elsewhere, so a further 1-2 years delay has cost me significantly.. so perhaps you can forgive me for being a bit cheesed off! I also have to look at the macro economic world, and say that I think gold is probably heading towards $3000 over that time if not higher.. and companies who actually produce gold may well do better in that environment.. so I am diversifying more into producers now, but happy to hold CNR until it hits £1.50-£2..
regards
T123
Short term, I think there is more likelihood of this falling rather than appreciating - as there is no news on the horizon that I think would move this up.. amazing drilling results dont do it as you can see from the SP after the RNS today (I now dont expect that Cacao will matter either, as even if they find another 1Moz, the market just wont care until they can monetise it).. It also looks as though there is still a background large seller (Ross Beaty) at 47-50p who is holding back the SP and there is the small matter of the looming elections in Nicaragua which may affect geopolitical sentiment short or maybe even longer term. Even if the gold price hits $2000 again this year as I think it will, with CNR unable to sell any gold until 2023 at least, I dont see how that will affect the SP. It didnt last year either when gold was over $2000. And with the question of construction financing still up in the air for the next 8 months until the land is bought and a new PFS produced to include Mestiza for an accurate CAPEX spend, I dont think investors will be prepared to invest any more here (as I am not) until something more concrete is announced. This company needs cashflow or it will experience more and more dilution.. again, driving the SP down.. On reflection though, I should have stated "hold" if you have a large holding here, as thats what I am doing - on the outside chance that a speculative offer comes in to buy CNR.. If a toll mill deal was to be announced, or if the PoG dropped sharply taking this with it, I would start buying again though as I think its a bargain longer term! But in the meantime I would buy gold producers like CEY, POLY etc who will be able to ride the higher gold prices.. Strategy? Buy producers while gold price is rising then move profits into here again in time for production.. AIMVHO of course!
regards,
T123
hi johngle - not necessarily toll milling - mining the starter pits at La India and Mestiza first will just improve the IRR for the construction financing with quick payback of plant capex, debt etc.. so unless Calibre or Mako are interested in a toll mill deal, and it appears they are not, then it could well be 2 -2.5 years at least before the gold grades announced today are actually dug out of the ground and sold.. in the meantime, there will be further dilution from ongoing expenditure, exploration etc plus the eventual 30% equity purchase to fund the plant capex whatever that turns out to be.. dont get me wrong, assuming Nicaragua stays stable enough after the (rigged) elections in November this year, this should still be at least £2 a share in 2 years time unless bought out cheaper first of course..
regards
T123
Nope - still got 500k here and will just have to keep holding for another 2 years I guess.. unless the SP falls to something crazy again like 20-30p I wont be adding any more though.. decided to put ISAs and SIPPs into some big gold producers instead for the next two years to take advantage of the higher gold prices that pretty much everyone thinks are coming..
Of course its nice to see re-confirmation of the very high gold grades that were originally found ten years ago and have been permitted for extraction for the past two years without anything actually having been sold yet, except by the artisanal miners of course.. Ten years to prepare for the next gold bull market and I still think CNR are going to miss it by not producing for another 2 years at least, unbelievable... then again, maybe I'm just a stale bull!
regards,
T123
Well according to MC the latest timelines are looking like:
April - Dec 2021 - Yet more studies and technical drilling plus infill and exploration drilling completing on Mestiza and Cacao
May/June 2021 - Appoint an EPCM contractor to quote them for the actual plant CAPEX +/- 15% (taking 4-5 months)
Nov/Dec - Release a PFS or FS to incorporate the drill results from Mestiza, La India and the updated CAPEX from EPCM contractor..
Jan 2022 - Get construction financing sorted and start construction for 15-18 months
ZZZZZZzzzzzz
May/June 2023 - Maybe produce a few ounces of gold to sell...
Meanwhile over the next 2 years, gold hits record highs in 6 months and then returns to $1700 levels by May/June 2023 by which point CNR have basically missed the boat... how does that grab you?
regards,
T123