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Very pleased to be back in profit as of today. BTC bounced. I'm very glad all those that held their nerve. Been very testing time.
I meant to say 3 options.
Hello all havent messaged since the last post at a top up around 115p of which along with the previous purchase in the 120s I traded at the 135p level. However began a buy back in Mid 120s all the way down to 106p. I have another tranche planned for 90p if it comes.
I believe this is a long term hold with great risk reward ratio. It was in a fantastic trading range recently, however when this breaks through previous recent trading lows, whether or not you think this is a great long term hold you have two options.
You spot the trend and sell out quick and take a small to medium loss. Alternatively if you have the funds for it, top up and follow it all the way down. And if you have the nerve hold long for some spectacular profit, depending how far down it goes minimum of 2-4x of your investment on recent highs. The other option just sit and wait. If you have an average of lower than 150p you are a at a level at which you may reasonably speculate that you can sit it out and sell out at a profit in the future.
I normally flit between the second and third option. However usually kick myself if I take the third option and eventually sell out with a minor profit. Had I just been brave and followed it all the way down. The added bonus of following that option is if the share in question never reaches previous highs or even the mid term trading range levels, your average will be lower that you may be able to get out with a minor profit at maybe 20-40p lower than your original entry point.
Now the downside as I once found out with XEL when I opted for a sit and hold approach is you may never get the opportunity to sell again. Fortunately I jumped out at a loss that still left me in a profit on that year overall.
In terms of Bitcoin of which ARB is inevitably linked. I have read a few articles over the past few days suggesting we are more likely to see it flurry upwards rather than downwards in the short term. However opinions strongly differ among analysts on whether this will actually occur or not.
I guess the crux of the argument is if you believe in Cryptocurrency and its longevity, or if at least you believe that Bitcoin is still set for significant upside. Lest we forget that on the latter, fundamentals are not necessarily even required. If people believe it has upside they will continue to buy BTC and in turn push the price higher.
Hi all perhaps as im so deeply invested I may skew things by pulling the positive out of the RNS, however I figured it may be worth noting how i took aspects of the RNS. I guess the main thing we are looking at is what exactly will be announced regarding Parys. The problem now is by highlighting that in the RNS there will be some level of expectation, which may not necessarily amount to very much.
The positive I took from Labrador RNS iv) Reactivate all necessary regulatory permits and approvals for construction. I thought this interesting as theres clearly a linear movement forwards here. We musnt forget also mine construction itself is 18months. I think as a share this is a very slow burner and anyone expecting any short rapid rise which is sustained may be sorely dissapointed. However at this level and as funds allow it may be sensible to acquire as many shares as possible with mind to hold for a 10 year or more period. I think I did previously mention my holding, in the recent stagnation I have upped it by a million shares.
I think for those willing to sit and wait, this could become a life changing rise, all theoretical at the moment however, and until concrete steps forward occur this will languish at these levels, and possibly even dip lower.
The wild swings on this I do not believe at all it will take 365 days for this to again touch the £1.60-£1.80 level. And if that is to be the case the level of profit at the level, it would be more than acceptable to hold for that length of time in anycase. Along with trading shares I can quite happily sit for a decade or so in LTH if need be.
I have always been drawn to buying stocks in traditional industry oil, mining, banking etc. My own background is in traditional industry so when my brother in law in the tech industry was discussing bitcoin crypto etc a few years ago I never really paid much attention. Admittedly it has been the media sensation in recent times that got me interested in crypto. Having read more into things in particular I was drawn to Cardano as a crypto purchase as the Proof of Stake and Ouroboros caught my attention as a next generation crypto (possibly also growing backing by the Reddit crew and also talk of it being the next ETH).
In anycase without going into it further ARB could be a great long term hold or a great trade. If this does to £1 or lower I will treble and quadruple my holding. Perhaps im mad, but been share trading and investing since 2009 and see the same patterns and hysteria on the way up as well as on the way down. Only ever had two notable losses in last 11 years or so, I dont intend ARB being the third.
Best wishes
TT
Having done alot of reading into crypto last few weeks although such volatility is not for the faint hearted. Doubled Holding in ARB today. Even as a trade up to 1.60-£1.80 its worth going for at this level. Also Doubled my ADA Cardano coins today, admittedly holding not a great deal of coins in ADA it seems to have potential long term for growth.
What is interesting read is the Texas potential for the Chinese Miners relocating.
It is a serious chunk of money. Its very much a trade on the spikes until substantial news but leaving a good portion of the holding in tact. Alternatively if substantial news arrives and its worth doing, I think its worth going all the way and letting it ride for as long as it needs to. If we ever reached 50p I would sell my entire holding. Its my ultimate exit level assuming all goes according to plan. The potential here is exceptional, but it all depends on how the journey ends up.
I think for me I have more fear of missing out on the big one than nursing paper losses or trading for short term gains. I missed the meteoric rise in DEO petroleum ( i believe it may have been deo my 20s were a bit of a blur on the shares front) many years back. I think they got bought out eventually, however I recall at the levels I would have purchased at the rise being one of the most extreme ive ever seen.
I can understand the frustration, regarding the directors sell off I did note it perhaps sent the wrong kind of message. However it was a tidy profit, if it was me I probably would have done the same. This can move very quickly on hype alone, my plan is to trade the spikes leaving a chunk for whenever substantial news arrives. And even then I would expect a rise and significant retrace but hopefully settling at levels far greater than current ones. We must also note this is the first time in around 5 years this has remained stable above 3p, and has held up quite well since the last spike toward 8p.
As many of the longer holders have mentioned this time feels different somehow. Its of my own opinion that at some point things have to be progressed. Apart from sitting on paper losses this does not appear to be a share were you can see it all end in tears. I think the crux of the issue is sitting still with very little happening for long periods of time. There are certainly better trading opportunities out there, for me however I want to leave a large enough chunk just sat incase we hit that rise again.
very rarely post on the message boards these days but been at it since 2009. Picked and had some very great wins. Had two notable losses in the last decade or so. In more recent times I had TLW at 12-17p selling at significant upside from those levels. Whenever less than perfect news comes out I see the same old behaviour, irrespective of the message board or share. If it eases anyone's concerns if you havent put in money that cannot be afford to be lost and you have done your research, If you are able to buy in on dips, normally in hindsight its a great thing, even if to sell out at an earlier point for the desired margin. At current levels and with any drops I would be hoping to at least match if not surpass recent highs at close to the 3p level. Whether it does indeed surpass those levels long term I would hazard a guess that it will do. Will we reach such levels at some point, I believe so. Its normally about timing and having the conviction to see your investment or trade through. I always feel bad for those that lose money either due to panic or lack of experience. Best of luck to all who are genuinely invested or have money at stake.
Being a lth (although I have not held shares for any great length of time) with approximately 3.2 million shares I echo that sentiment. If you look back at the history of the firm of the days were this touched 80p the long term potential is astronomical at current levels. It is however one you have to put out of your mind and look back in a few years, and all being well resist the temptation to sell on the peaks. Admittedly I partially sold shares and rebought on the recent rise and fall albeit holding a sizeable chunk untouched.
At these levels although no major movements week to week, I think as seen in the past the hope is good news will come and this will go into the stratosphere (if you look at the hl 10 year graph, you will note what happened that time round)
The world will keep turning regardless, its always a question of time and timing in this game, and indeed most industries and businesses.
It depends how monday goes. The sp has been pretty stable the last week or so. I sold my holding at the upper 24p level with the hope of buying back my holding again at a lower price.
To hedge bets incase of it going the other way, now is a good time to start, with top ups ever 1-2p or so.
I do not see this going below 18p again, it would be very lucky top up if so.
Thankyou. I seem to recall I may have traded this at 30p many moons ago. I did not think it could be the same share.
Had a look on the hl 10 year chart and seems there was a trading range around 2011-2012.
Time flies and hairs either evaporate or go grey!
apologies I think the purchases are showing as buys. Unsure about the other trades at exact 0.11
indeed they were purchases. Having a pop here at 0.119, had real difficulty getting a quote on any substantial quantity. Does this happen to move quite quickly on buying pressure?
Hi all not invested here, currently in on SML and TLW. Was looking at the Sp of Royal Mail expecting it will have risen on the back of the volumes of parcels. I noticed this from your discussions on this board. From my own anectdotal experience of my own business. Our last 4 days volume of parcels is equal to a normal months volumes. The volumes have gone crazy since lockdown. I have also had chats with our local DO staff who are saying its replicated across the country.
Had a look at your posts seem to flit from negative to positive depending on what I can summise is your current trading position ie whether you have bought and wishing the sp to rise or if you are out and looking for an entry point. From what I can tell you trade TLW and bank profit along the way. Great and I commend you for succesfully making profit. However your posts seem disingenuous. Granted no one should take great notice of others on online forums and message boards, but over the years I have seen countless amateur investors get sucked into either blatent ramping or deramping. Not saying you are doing either but certainly your posts are agenda laden.
I have noticed in recent times sluggish mornings and rises in the afternoons. Heres hoping for the same today
Thought this excerpt was particularly of interest to those nervous Pis
"Meanwhile an extensive hedging programme has kept the group's received oil prices well above the pretty ugly market price, and looks set to continue doing so for much of the next year. Further efforts to reduce costs have also yielded results and, as a result, Tullow looks better placed to weather the current market turmoil than many larger companies, at least in the short term."
This small dip a good time to grab more shares. Grabbed another 73,000 shares earlier. The picture is certainly looking better in TLW and two days of news we are all wanting to hear. Not sure about others but for me this gives me more confidence in buying more at a higher price. I have set a limit of buying up to the 40p mark (news dependendant & funds dependant) as up to that level long term its a good shot for a healthy return (more than double your money for a £1 sell as an example).
Although the picture isnt exactly bright overall, what has got myself and others this morning to add more is the feeling that TLW are starting to take charge of things in very tough trading times.
This is exactly the kind of moves we that have been sat in this share a long time have been waiting to see.