The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
From My Knowledge of WH Ireland they do offer tips on shares to their clients, from memory alot is down to personal opinion of the individual broker. My dear old dad back in the day used them and would often asked for recommendations.
I recall however (this was 20 years ago) them being somewhat rigid in their views and not liking AIM listed shares.
I remember as a youngster getting in a disagreement about a particular share to which the senior broker told my dad your son is on cloud cuckoo land.
I was proven to be right 5 years later in hindsight. Ironically by which point neither my father or the broker were still living, so I had no "I told you so" Moment.
Im not a fan of them as a broker. That being said they do have access to some bigger corporate clients ie private LTD companies that put money into the stock market. Im not necessarily talking multinationals (from my own knowledge) but certainly companies rather than individuals that could sink a tens of thousands without blinking an eye.
You also find then directors and higher up employees of such LTD companies will also purchase in smaller amounts as individuals.
Equally as a broker they have some high net worth private individual clients.
Would be nice if they do push AYM as a buy
Politically it’s a no brainer. I think copper needs to be added to the Govt critical minerals list.
Things are lining up here. Just a matter of time which is both a comfort but also for many the barrier of entry.
More defined timelines or a willingness perhaps by the new ceo to ballpark figure timelines would go along way I think.
I noticed Joe frequently mentioned he would not throw out timelines as it exceeded imagine he would get a lot of flack.
But for most reasoned investors i believe it would help
Back to figuring out the exact defined parameters of fair value (more specifically the variables which may affect or determine fair value, and indeed why WH Ireland had it at 11.2p in 2022 and 5.4p today).
Inevitably supply and demand on the shares in issue does not affect the fair value.
The short hand definition is simply the intrinsic value of an asset. In that sense is WH Ireland now referring to solely the Anglesey asset which now has caused the differentiation?
Equally fair value seems to take into account future gains into the calculation, that being said surely 5.4p is incredibly low for the Anglesey asset in itself. Perhaps this is part of Greens Twitter post (perhaps we can read between the lines in his tweet).
I cant seem to see anything either regarding market sentiment affecting a fair value reevaluation.
Im scratching my head on this one regarding the WH Ireland valuation.
In either case this is heavily undervalued. Stabilised at the 6-8p region we may then argue its overvalued.
But either way something I was saying in 2021 is sub 5p entry or an average of below 5p, long term is a gift. And I believe in a few years we all be kicking ourselves for not emptying our bank accounts and overextending ourselves to grab as many shares possible sub 5p
I would be very impressed if we were at that point and indeed the construction went smoothly.
I personally don't see it in my wildest dreams, but would gladly eat my hat on that one.
Sorry without meaning to sound rude but are you genuinely suggesting this will be in production by next year end?
I tend to lean on the positive side and would be glad to be wrong on this. From memory an optimistic time merely for construction is 18 months.
I hate to say it and appear confrontational but I think you are way off on that.
Equally the message board hasn’t been this active in years.
So much so I even took the effort to sort my login on my phone. Surely that means we are due a flurry of activity 😂
Metal prices seemingly should be higher. I have trouble in general with the concept of fair value any how as it does not take into account what I call “the market hysteria” in both positive and negative terms.
I feel some of Aym lagging the last few years has been lack of awareness perhaps amongst pis possibly even lack of belief.
Slowly but surely I believe this is changing with each stepping stone.
That being said if something changes for the positive fundamentally here I believe that market hysteria and FOMO WILL DRIVE PI’s in here and this will rocket.
Fair value may even still in single digits but this could climb and continue to climb into the 20s on such hysteria.
This moved very rapidly to 10p In previous years on nothing more than that.
It is also nice to see lots of small £4-5k buys trickling in which we can all assume maybe pis coming on
Board
I guess this is due to external factors? Copper prices are only marginally higher in 2022 to now so it’s a little odd wh Ireland has lowered the fair value when we are increasing the resource.
My only thought is the way the market is today is in a worse state than 2022? Or perhaps some correlation to the Aym sp today at around 1.5p vs 2.5p In 2022.
From what I understand about “fair value” it is what can be achieved on the open market at any given time.
It could well be therefore theoretically in different circumstances such as say a bull market and higher metal prices but logistically aym being further behind than where it is today and lower proven resource fair value could be said at “20p” or say “15p”
Not if I’ve understood fair value correctly but this is what I have gleaned from it
Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/999600/anglesey-mining-valuation-seen-multiples-higher-as-it-eyes-parys-mountain-development-analyst-999600.html
Anglesey Mining PLC (AIM:AYM) offers major upside as the Welsh mine developer is demonstrating further potential in its portfolio, according to stockbroker WH Ireland.
In a note following Monday's project update, the broker's analyst highlighted an 11.2p ‘fair value’ estimate which suggests many multiples of upside to the current share price of 2.5p.
Am I wrong in thinking the Wh Ireland fair value has gone down. I seem to recall they had it at 11p?
Good news, take the small wins when we can.
What I took from this was an official resource update in the near future. And we must remember the more "bankable" resources the better when/if it comes to financing.
Pleased a solid foundation is being built here. Boxes are being ticked here (slowly).
I think the short answer is nothing has or is happening. There has been a number of false starts since the 1980s. We are now in 2024 and there is no clear timeline to development. I believe the market in general is poor from my own watched shares in mining (ggp & solg) also performed horrifically over last few years.
Irrespective of the poor market I think the uncertainty hanging over AYM is a huge barrier for bigger investors. That being said on anything concrete this has the ability to move up very quickly. There is not a huge number of shares in issue and any sustained buying pressure will send this north quickly.
That being said the 3 years I have been invested has seen this SP drop from the 5p region to were we sit today.
This is a huge win Long Term. Its an invest and look away situation.
Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/copper-smelters-in-leading-buyer-china-wary-of-bhp-anglo-american-tie-up/ar-AA1nVHFl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ACTS&cvid=8bda3bc307494fc2ca8145792d01e5ad&ei=17
This popped up on my web browser this evening. I found it interesting.
I wish I could. I have several million shares but no spare funds to buy more. Never thought it would go this low. However the pay off I still believe will be huge here.
For the record I "Cut my teeth" shortly after the 2008 financial crash and traded oilers for a decade or so, and made some good money. It was a great time to buy and sell oilers and I recall some giant fortunes made and indeed for some lost during those times for others.
I myself played it cautious however managed to pay 50% value of my first home at the age of 26 off the back of my success.
If that is considered "childs play" compared to the supercycle of copper, theoretically AYM should make us all a small fortune.
In theory of course
That being said at what point does AYM become an attractive buy for a bigger player. Not how I would like things to go, but if you think about it, if the value of copper continues to rise - a predicted supercycle coming which is meant to make the oil boom look like childsplay then the asset itself makes AYM a potential takeover target.
If aym dont make meaningful steps to production and/or the share price continues to languish does a bigger player basically swoop in and take the company and push for production instead?
We all know that it takes a long time to bring a mine into production and seemingly permitting is one of the biggest barriers. We have a class asset (with appreciating copper prices) existing permitting in place and other potential avenues with grangesberg and to a minor extent labrador.
If you think about it at the current sp there is a vulnerability. I mean even a fairly wealthy private investor could take a chunk ownership of this company £500k investment at current prices would get you 33 million shares or around 8% ownership of the company.
Something for us all to think about.
Few quotes I liked in this
"Anglesey have made a prescient appointment"
"to fast track the drilling programme and bring the Parys Mountain onstream"
"bafflingly the share price remains rooted at 1.4p"
I dont believe this share will stay this low forever. And I strongly feel in my gut in a few years time I will be kicking myself for not having the funds to buy more at these levels.
My main holding has an average of 3.7p
ISA has an average of 3p
This reached 8p on little substance in the last 5 years. With something more concrete long term this should hold at a 10-12p region.
For me this is almost triple my buy in average and for new entrants now 10x a buy in entry.
Question I feel is how long the wait.
Agreed the 334,993 share buy on friday was me with part of my ISA allowance.
Unfortunately I dont have enough spare money currently to use up the other £15k.
I dont want to call it and get egg on my face but usually when a new CEO gets appointed there is usually a flurry of activity in the first 6-12 months as they usually like to hit the ground running.
I expect this (hopefully) to stabilise again in the 2-3p range in the next 3-4 months.
Happy to be wrong and more happy to be right.
It also highlights to me anyway an intention to see this through. Could it very well be we are nearing the end of decades of false starts?