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using the GDR test on the Biomek platform is a no-brainer, just add sample, the flow through and cost savings are huge.... we are now talking the potential to be selling 100ks tests a day at scale

I mentioned this last year, but there are now suggestions vaccination may be providing positive selective pressure for new mutations, testing here for a long time I think

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

it would be interesting to see what multiple NCYT is working on as this is likely to be the same since their value is almost entirely linked to their COVID sales at the moment. Does anyone know? I think your assumptions are right if/when COVID becomes a long term demand, but before that it maybe discounted in the market cap, still a multiple of todays price though!

.... David please give the market an update on the POC status

it was more due to large holders selling down their holding based on simply needing funds elsewhere, that selling pressure caused the drop. Actually probably not bad because now they are out and there are no large holders wanting to exit this should rise to where it previously was... I think £1.50-£1.70 was the next main resistance point, then clear to £2.50 and above...

will this close above the £1 today now the BGF has gone...

nothing wrong about being positive about the companies you're invested in, in fact you have to ask yourself why would you be negative and still be invested, and worse why be negative and post if you're no longer invested

Value, I agree, I think valuation will be higher though purely because of the POC play here too, we may see a push higher, a re-trace and then a climb. Ultimately too for this business compared to others I think there's an acquisition opportunity because the business' POC device can be placed in other disease areas. Couple that to sales I think a MC of £100m is not unrealistic. Possibly higher when everything is considered.

and each biomek does 10 plates per 8 hour shift.... that's £5,760 per day per 8 hour shift, DB intimated 2 runs per day would be done, that's £10k profit per unit per day... that's £2.5m profit to Genedrive per biomek placed assuming 240 active days in a year.

As David said it's down to how many units Beckman can place... 10x, 100x, 1000x.£2.5m... it gears up very quickly!!

the large single trade at the end of the day clearly suppressed the price today, hopefully the last of BGF...

Risk, I think the pricing was £8-£10 per test with a 60% margin, so that's £5 per test to Genedrive....

rbr08, I agree, but trying to think next targets in the coming months. If BC place 1,000 units throughout the US and EU then that's £1.5Bn in profit to GDR, the figures get astronomical very quickly.

It hadn't sunk in the Leica Biosystems is a Danaher company, DB was responsible for that business. There is more than an outside chance of an acquisition in the next 12 months... All things falling into place. I suspect a recover to a market cap in the region of £100m+ once BC sales start mid feb...

think, with each Biomek installation driving £1.5m of profit to Genedrive, so the current market cap is easily supported by 10 beckman installations... Do we think Beckman are thinking in terms of 10 installations? Probably not. 100? 1,000? So MC could easily be 10 times + where it is today....

it's not the mm its the market pressure, the market has a fixed amount of money in it pretty much spread across different shares, the dynamics are such that in order to buy in a sector there has to be a sell in another, people wrongly believe vaccines means the problems are going away, this maybe true in 5 years or more, but not short term. Viruses will mutate faster than new vaccines will come on stream. Also, the protection is short lived, you can't vaccinate everyone simultaneously, so you need to test continually.

Very good proactive interview, DB confirmed the margins are essentially the same with the BC deal, and was talking about 2 robotic shifts per 24 hours so 1,500 samples a day per installation. Allowing for weekends that 360,000 tests per installation per year, say £5 margin is £1.8m per installation.... it truly is company making. How many installations? 10, 100, 1000???

I agree BigAl, let's see what the coming weeks bring. Beckman will not have entered this agreement without the possibility of sales, with COVID those expectations are higher than most, so it will be exciting to see. DB has pulled off a masterstroke and these things take time,. especially when various things need to align... which they are now doing... Genedrive is not a customer focused business, it is a B2B business, what he has done makes absolute sense....

February/March are going to be good months I think

I wonder if the European order was held off until the commercialisation agreement with Beckman, the RNS is ambiguous in that it reads as though Beckman are a commercialisation channel of the test, wether it runs on the Beckman platform or not. That would make sense for them to sell the test on its own as well as part of a package, in which case the European sale may have been held back to allow Beckman to be the supplier and technical support for the product.... just a thought...

Acquisition within the next 12-18 months a clear route for the business and now that have an acquirer and probably already in discussion....