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Sam is hopeful they can complete the Harbour Exit and Nav entry before the coming equity raise. They will also be mindful of the huge dilution at these levels - I took this to mean they will at least raise the minimum required..
Straight from horses mouth.
Anyone had any responses from Sam recently? He used to respond in a matter of hours but have some open questions from over a week now..
IMO some sort of capital raise must be coming shortly (Sam confirmed without any OM payment it would be required this year ~ 12 months ago..).
Hi LTT -
Agreed - I think it's almost certain now that HE will consumer Rock in one form or another. One thing to note -in the event of a take over the deferred tax liability becomes immediately payable to FIG (best part of double our mcap at the moment).
Secondly - HE (and PMO before them) are well aware of our financial frailties - they know that if we don't get a OM payout we would be looking at huge dilution - this would be the point they would take us out for peanuts I would guess unfortunately. Hence the HUGE significance of OM now - not just a nice to have...
Cheers
Tax
You won't see significant volumes until we have actual news. As discussed..case closed update will be first - then 0-4 months later any award granted. Q3 Navitas, Premier/Harbour update on project...
Good news for you Godders is that there's sufficient volume for you to exit your entire position within about a week without cratering the share price (if you so wished)..
Agreed things are lining up a little now Bootledodger. Unfortunately absent of the OM result we are unlikely to hear anything regarding Sealion for 6-9 months and therefore likely to trade in line with oil price/oil co's market sentiment.
One positive - the new Chry/PMO UKEF application will look more favourable given the renewed strength of the debt servicing undertaking (given the stronger balance sheet of new entity). And of course we may not ultimately require UKEF anymore..
Hi Auson -
At point of 'closing' Italy cannot make anymore reps/challenges - which is due "soon". After this a decision can be expected anywhere between a few days and 4 months (using other cases as precedence).
Cheers - Tax
Hi Auson - Sorry was in a rush earlier. Heard it from the horses mouth unfortunately - if you email the Co you will receive a very prompt response! Sounds like case should be closed 'soon' - at which point we could be looking anywhere between days and 4 months if other cases can be used a precedent (to establish result and/or financial claim). One interesting point is that the term 'award' refers to the entire proceedings - I had naively assumed that we had 'won' the case and were just waiting to find out the amount to be awarded! Cheers - Tax
Exactly - clearly we were never going to get an update re Navitas involvement until the new PMO/Chry is formed.
A realistic timeline of events remains....FIG extend licenses (small positive perhaps) - no idea when but prob Q1. Update on Navitas Q2/Q3 2021 post Chry/PMO new company formed (should be significant for share price from current low). Update on whether UKEF funding still required after this. So could still be a chance of Sanction late next year..
OM - forget swallows or anything imminent from that plonker Nigoil. The case has still not closed - once closed could be another 6 months until we hear result and or any award granted to RKH. So nothing imminent market moving there I'm afraid.
Between then let's hope for higher oil prices to increase our chances...
Appreciate the response rpoodle.
It will be fascinating to see the share price reaction when/if we ever get the project sanction. I feel the value opportunity at that point will be enormous - we can finally put a realizable value on the asset (ex crude price volatility of course).