Member Info for tawse57

I think it had more to do with options expiry in the US. I suspect loads of shorters off for their Christmas holidays took their profits before going on holiday. You had something similar the day before in Teck Resources.

Clive Maund - mentions the CRB index and a top in the FTSE. http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3653

Anyone know the short position percentages on MRW and TSCO? Harder to build a sizeable short positions on TSCO I suspect due to the number of shares out there - would cost more?

Yep, and if the Fed raises rates next week all the commodity miners could see another big drop as the USD supposedly rises. Wonder how low this can go?

Kinder Morgan cut its dividend today and the SP initially spiked on the news that the company was perceived as being more finanically secure.

"wow, I hadn't realised the trend is down" No need to try and be clever. It just makes you sound like an idiot. Pointing out trends for given stocks, or markets, is an important and common observation on financial forums. I was merely observing the fact. Posts like yours give this site a bad name. Impossible to have a sensible conversation with such injections.

More likely HFTs testings shorts and longs, looking for stops. The trend is down.

If Yellen raises US rates 0.25% next week we could see all these commodity miners - be it RIO, BLT, Anglo, South 32, Glencore or the ones in the US/Canada such as Teck, FCX, etc - get crushed as the US Dollar rises. Crushed more I mean. TECK Resources - TCK - was 7 bucks a few months ago when a chartist I know said that we could see 5 bucks soon. When it got to 5 bucks he said perhaps 1 to 2 bucks was coming. Was $3.51 last night.

I just read on another site someone post that non-oil commodity busts with peak to trough declines greater than 30% typically last 7 to 8 years. If so, then we are only in year four currently. Food for thought.

There is simply too much capacity re demand in the world when it comes to coal, iron and copper currently. The only thing that will stop the decline in the SP of all these miners will be some ENORMOUS - did you see what I did there - QE stimulus from China or we get some Roosevelt type stimulus from a US pressident to massively renew US rail, bridges, roads, etc, etc. Obama will not do that in his final year and I doubt a Republican successor will either.

I expect a drop out of the FTSE to see a sizeable drop in the share price - £1.40s region I suspect. Throw in a Yellen interest rate hike general markets crash and we could be in the £1.30s before long. Not advice - just my views. Don't underestimate funds having to sell this.

Looks like the Yuan is down against the USD overnight causing the metals to drop.

A chap I know thinks that the big North American miner which he follows, Teck Resources, will drop to 1 to 2 bucks by next Jan/Feb. It is currently just over 4 bucks. No idea if he will be right or not but if he is then presumably the entire commodity index will have fallen further and the likes of TCK, FCX, S32, Glencore, Rio and BHP will also have fallen considerably.

Some images here: http://www.mining.com/bhp-hits-fresh-7-year-low-as-mud-from-brazil-disaster-reaches-atlantic-ocean/

BBC Fivelive now talking about the damage to the environment and the loss of life - mentions that it will cost an estimated 4 to 5 billion USD to put things right. Presumably that is a conservative figure perhaps and there will be a fine on top? Fivelive said something about the owners of the mine being, allegedly, major donors to the ruling political party and, allegedly, also to the main opposition party in Brazil and questions now being asked in Brazil about this - no idea whether that is true or not? Interesting BBC item though.

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

http://traderdan.com/?p=7722

Silver COTs are still appalling but gold is oversold now so we may get a bounce in both soon but I fear, longterm, we will see lower lows in both

Wings clipped.

OK.