RE: Realistic Valuation12 May 2020 00:25
> Are there any other detailed valuations with reasoned assumptions you can link me to? Thanks
Power plant produces 1320MegaWatts of electricity, that's a fixed amount and it's the only currently planned source of income for the company, and it can't scale up just by turning the power plant up a bit, so let's take that as a figure to work from. Times x1000 to measure in kiloWatts, x24 hours in a day for Kilowatthours (kWh) per day. Sell at UK consumer electric prices of 15p/kWh for ~£5M/day income. Give 12% to Oracle for their share, that's £550,000/day or 55,000,000p, distribute between Oracle shares (1.8Bn), for 55/1800 = 0.03p/day of share value. Times 3650 days for a decade of production, that's ~110p/share...
...now adjust for more realism: Oracle can't pay out all their income because they have costs and other things to spend it on, how much, maybe half so x0.5 that figure. The power plant won't run at peak capacity all the time due to low demand times and maintainance downtime, how much will it run, maybe averaging 90% so x0.9; The power plant can't pay all its income as profit because it has running costs, how much is profit, maybe half so x0.5. The Government of Pakistan won't pay UK consumer prices for electricity, how much will they pay, maybe a fifth, so x0.2. Make up your own figures to taste...
5p/share/decade of electric sales income. In 15 years.
This is back of an envelope with made up numbers so it's clearly wrong; what back of the envelope calculations you all are doing - am I 10x too low anywhere? 100x? I can't see the suggested "multiple pence per share per news item" or £14 just based on coal calculations while there's currently no way to unlock value in the coal. Maybe in a couple of years of developments and more stable plans, but in 2020 or 2021? Someone, add some more reasons. (LOI and derisking JCC contract are reasons but why do you value them at whatever value you give them?).
I don't mean to deramp, there is still a hopeful future of multiple income streams and more value, but a long-term one. Short term, what is it that will drive it to 5p or 10p or even 2p on news?