ShareProphets Article 5th Dec22 Dec 2014 06:56
Today I take a look at one of the tips that has not gone so well to say the least. With the crude oil price cratering, so too has the share price of Fastnet (FAST), but it did not shed the majority on the back of the oil fall. Instead it decided to tank on the back of a comment by Chairman Cathal Friel to the press where he said that a return of cash and move into the medical sector could happen because of the oil price. The share price slumped 40% on that announcement which is an over-reaction and here is why.
Fastnet still has its Morocco asset alongside majors BP and Kosmos Energy. That STILL exists but not much is going to happen there into 2016 now because of the oil price. The other two assets are pure options.
The first option is the Celtic Sea option package that it is looking to farm out and that has been forced into 2016 because of the oil price. Let's not beat around the bush, management was facing an uphill struggle even before the oil price tanked but were making headway and then the oil price gets totally wrecked and the farmout is delayed.
I'm as surprised about that as I was about Chelsea beating Tottenham yesterday. NOT very surprised!!
The second option is onshore Morocco and management really needs to come clean about what is happening there. The process was started and it has probably been talking to companies about farming in. The beauty of the onshore asset is that it is high quality gas with a beautifully high gas price that is nearly 0% affected by the oil price fall. The gas is STILL there and the chance of success is STILL high. But will it drill?
The market value is now £10.8 million. Money on the balance sheet with low cash burn is £12.7 million.
The shares are trading at a discount to cash! If Fastnet winds up the company because that is the best interests for shareholders then I trust Friel to do that, and shareholders might get 4p per share if they sell the assets. If they partner onshore Morocco then all down bets are off and we could be looking at a £20 million valuation in a snap.
Cathal seems to have dropped a clanger – although I give him gold stars for honesty - but you've got to be a first class mug to sell at below cash when burn is low, when management are very good (normally!) and when they are making noises about returning cash.