Aukus Part 118 Mar 2024 07:24
How Biden’s budget plunged the Aukus submarines pact into doubt
Inside defence circles, there are growing doubts about America’s ability and willingness to deliver following a shock proposal from the Biden administration that cuts to the heart of the deal.
Amid a row at home over government budgets, the White House this month suggested halving the number of Virginia-class submarines it builds next year – the very same type it has promised to Australia under Aukus.
That means the US faces a shortfall itself, raising the prospect it may refuse to sell its existing vessels and leave Canberra in the lurch.
“It’s extremely serious for Australia,” says Hugh White, a former defence official and professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, in Canberra.
“If the Virginias don’t arrive, Australia will have no submarines to put to sea at a time when our strategic circumstances are, to put it mildly, very delicate and risky.
“In that scenario, the whole Aukus construct starts to fall apart.”
The SSN-Aukus subs, featuring US technology, will be designed and built first in Britain, at BAE Systems’ facilities at Barrow-in-Furness, in the late 2030s. Afterwards, the company will use that experience to build Australia’s boats at the Osborne Naval Shipyard in Adelaide.
But the latest US defence budget proposals, put forward by the Biden administration this month, have exposed a glaring weakness in this plan.
In a bid to save $4bn, the White House has proposed allocating money to build one – instead of two – Virginia-class submarines for the US Navy next year.
This is causing jitters because the strength of America’s fleet is already 17 short of the 66 targeted by the top brass. Defence experts fear it also risks sending the wrong signal to both allies and the industrial base about the Pentagon’s commitment.
“Given the new commitment made last year to sell three submarines to our ally Australia, which I enthusiastically support, the ramifications of the Navy’s proposal will have a profound impact on both countries’ navies,” said Joe Courtney, a senior congressman on the
The Virginias are made by Huntington Ingalls Industries, America’s biggest military shipbuilder, and defence giant General Dynamics in Newport, Virginia. They cost about $4bn each and take seven years to build. The US previously planned to add two to three to its fleet annually until 2043.
For years, however, the rate of boats delivered has fallen below this target as a result of a shortage of skilled workers, supply chain problems and disruption from the Covid pandemic.
At the same time, the US Navy’s submarine fleet is struggling with a huge maintenance backlog that has also taken 18 submarines temporarily out of service.
As part of Aukus, Australia has agreed to pump $3bn into the US submarine industrial base – potentially helping with maintenance – but the Biden administration’s new budget proposal risk