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An interesting volley of responses. Thanks. I'd add:
a- he is on 'the inside' whether one judges that it is advantageous or not, so it is illegal
b - IPO'ing a company ain't straightforward especially if it is in a bit of a mess. I believe this point was expanded on at the AGM.
c - The aim of the sale is to focus SEED on the CBD/cannabis/food science market.
d - is it worthwhile to hold on to LEAP? That's the million dollar question I guess. But the board reckons it's better to focus SEED on it's core strength.
sorry - pressed enter by mistake without finishing the sentence.
I imagine the next relevant news will be around the liquidation of our holding in LEAP (likely before the end of the year from what I gathered from the agm), at which point the question of director holdings could be raised again.
Next sustainable share bump is likely to be around October when interest and sentiment in cannabis stocks is likely to upswing given the expected Bundestag decision. I imagine buyers before that point will be taking the bottom into account (has it just been marked?), if a value opportunity exists, and finally sentiment. Buy and sell before October, sure, but there is activity on the way.
Quite possibly it is because LEAP is still going through a process of a sale. Given Ed sits on the board of LEAP, buying shares in SEED pre-liquidation event will be interpreted as 'insider dealing'. Thus even if I am hoping for an RNS announcing Director buying, I know that won't happen as it would be legal.
I imagine the next news
The panic of some holders following, what in my mind was a routine business decision, undoubtedly led to them to walk away from SEED. The question is whether all the heavy PI selling has finished? I personally don't think it was rational to sell at 4p or even 5p before Ed's announcement. The calm of the last few days suggests that those who were hanging on for a massive valuation of LEAP have likely left us. Or they've lost so much that they've decided to sit it out. Either way, I can't think of much to suggest there wouldn't be a decent bump up. I think I'm going to buy some more tomorrow. Unless someone else persuades me there are risks (with a probability above 20%) I haven't identified.
I agree about it being only a trade. No news just yet. But with AIM, I've noticed that companies tend to be a bit leaky with news. The news that would reassure me at this stage is something about Director buying. That would mark a bottom.
Some reasonable trades late today. Anyone here buying yet? Are we all watching who will blink first? I have to admit I am getting closer to buying some. It's hard to see too much further downside, and easier to see a reasonable upside. NAV of at least 5p let's say, which means it should be an easy 100% from here? Regardless of what we think about Ed. It's going to take some time for ANY Director to burn through that, so a bump back up at some stage, is inevitable, right? What do others think? Have we reached the bottom? Are we about to get an RNS saying that Directors are buying? What was that second AGM resolution about 'Make market purchases of its ordinary shares'? Is that a share buyback? As I'm writing this, I'm only getting closer to convincing myself of buying back in. As toxic as it can be, something like that crazy lover we all had in our early twenties, you sometimes just know it may just be worth it. At this price, it really feels like one of the better options on AIM.
Kingbilly- it looks like there was a pretty hefty (£100k+) buy booked a bit later. It’s fine trading but it’s a bit of a risk that you’ll miss the next bump up…and as you point out, they do seem to be missing a subtle underlying improvement in fundamentals that will provide this bump… .
dagenham - Most activity I can see is from panicked PIs selling. It's lonely as a PI and of course many spend a lot of time on chat boards like this. There're some good posts but plenty that aren't healthy, either from the point of indicating the mind set of the poster and neither are they healthy to read! Hence volume has been really thin and SP has fallen on thin, thin volume. I'm expecting further falls, perhaps to the 1.8 mark.
The half a million sell this am was fascinating! Someone has either just had a kitchen installed and is desperate to pay their builders, or knows something, or more likely just wanted to carry less risk! But they must have taken a big loss! Not sure that loss was worth the derisk!
An interesting few days of posting. On whether this board affects the SP I'd offer that posts here have some effect on SP. I've trawled boards in the past and made a lucky few investment on positive sentiment I've gleaned from reading boards.
People DO buy and sell on the back of sentiment gleaned from strangers on the internet. And the SP moves correspondingly. AIM thus follows sentiment to a large extent. This board is hugely negative. I'm not sure it's justified a lot of / most of the time. Sure, the LEAP valuation was off and sure there is a delay in sale. But the fundamentals of the SEED haven't changed to the extent that the SP has changed. I know I'm in the minority, perhaps because I don't post so much, but like Bronson (and perhaps others), I'm not expecting this to go bust with zero return for shareholders. The SP of the liquid investments is frustrating. But I've seen private buy outs elsewhere where the purchase price is way above the SP. That's the problem of following sentiment downwards for you in a nutshell. Crack on being unreasonably negative if you want to (perhaps to move the SP down to your own entry point), it won't change the long run return by much if at all as far as I can see. GLA
After reading many posts here, I had to reread the RNS. I can see why there is disappointment - we're not going to get anywhere near £200 million by end of 2022! But a lot of what people are saying is wrong. And this RNS isn't bad. The reason for this RNS is two fold as far as I can see, and both reasonably sensible. First, to manage expectations into a realistic position about the LEAP valuation (lots of posts speculating about that on this board), and second to say that things have changed. There is a risk that this a case of Ed playing with our money for mates' rates, but my view is this is less likely than the face value of this RNS. I'm not that bothered about the lack of a 'liquidity event' around LEAP this year. In a way, I'd rather it didn't happen as the share price would plummet once LTH's cash in. In a way, I'd rather Ed didn't tell us about any disposals until after they happened. I'd rather he didn't sell in panic to appease short term shareholders quest for quick profits. I'd rather he holds on to good investments and the SP grows in the way that Berkshire Hathaway has grown. Therein lies real value.
that there is a notable absence of posts today coupled with what could be interpreted as some strategic buying at 3.8. Does that mean that the bottom has been reached? Does the absence of ****ging off mean that those posters have had a change of heart and have decided to buy now - so further downward movement is not in their interest?
I wonder if I am also OD - but we're not. I can see a persistent seller, getting rid of slices of around £3k at a time. Everyone else is just watching at the moment to see when this stops. We're insulated from incompetency to a certain extent as SEED doesn't rely on the ability of one CEO to direct the company to prosperous waters. The porttfolio of CEOs we have spreads that risk - and mitigates it to an extent, and as such, the failure of one won't bring the demise of the company. The current drop is ALL retail as far as I can see. When the rebound comes, it's likely to be a very healthy rebound. I'm quite tempted to put all of my eggs in one basket, I have to admit. Just watching, as everyone else is, when these little sell trades cease.