Member Info for Tacotaco

thanks ARCMhunter... will check that out

ARMC feeling the heat... they may opppose the refinancing (technically sending PMO into default) but in a worse case scenario PMO has other options such as raising debt in the bond market to repay ARMC (can be slightly more expensive but still ok)
This move from ARMC would be quite stupid as they would be left with loss making short positions and with no more income from interest paid on debt holding.
These guys are now stuck between a rock and hard place... no wonder the market is dismissing ARMC's threats and sending this 15% higher...

Mrd... you're instincts on PMO were right around a year ago... what happened since?

... good day to be alive he said!!

...evacuated foreign staff from Kurdistan following escalation in tension since airstrike killed Soleimani...

1msn where do you see the price mivement? and why is it down so much?

NTSA i think you are finding it very difficult to understand the point i am making, i never make price predictions.
Oil price will go up only when Geopolitical risk is materialized (which is not the case currently)...
otherwise nothing has changed... same volatility you've been seeing in the past couple of years.
PS: i did not say price will go down... there is positive momentum but not for the reasons you are citing.
I really hope you get my point now... otherwise wish you all the best with you predictions.

Downside is limited (thanks to Trump) no point in shorting
Geopolitical risk will result in higher POO only if materialized...
Meanwhile expect volatility.
Hope its all clear now NSTA!!

Yeap correct Dodger... and the worse part is that the US is now alienated.
Russia China and Germany have already discussed security issues following the assasination and...
Russia and Germany have already convened a meeting on 11 of january to discuss the middle east... no meeting has been scheduled with the US or Nato (now officially obsolete and brain dead).
This would be unheard of only few months ago... the snub of the US by Europe is unprecendented.
Shame the UK still asks how high when the Donald asks it to jump.
Things are shifting faster than what the media would like to beleive...

Natz... remember what happened to POO after the 20% rise following the Abqaiq bombing... geopolitical risk materiallized but was short lived given the well supplied markets.
Currently geopolitiacl risk is yet to materialize ...

Natz, yet Shale production is curretnly at record high... now financially would likely go to tits but not anytime soon thanks to the majors "stupidly" pumping billions into the newly acquired shale patches giving yet another lifeline (despite huge impairemnt they will be taking this year).
Outbutnotdown... all hell is about to break loose but until it does so and we see real disruption and not potential disruption, do not expect a major rise in POO.

Not expecting further POO increase based on recent events... geopolitical premium would probably fade away unless there is actual disruption.
So far the rise in only on the back of speculation at best limiting the downside in oil prices. The market is well supplied and shale stronger than ever.

Hi Hawkey...

Capital into the SP and not into the company's coffers.

Boyo, as a holder on here i really hope your assessment is correct... despite POO topping $70/bbl, the Market so far diasagrees, hoping this is only related to the payment issue.
For the SP to move upwards fresh capital needs to pour into this name and i currently just dont see any reason for investors to allocate Hard currency (GBP) into Iraq related companies especially as Western influence irreversably wanes.
Last week's events have fundementally changed the balance of power in Iraq let alone the region... this will play out in the coming months / years but expect much more doom and gloom before returning to any kind of normalcy.

The point is that isis is not gone and can easily recreate 2015/16 scenario ... who will help the KRG then?

I wouldn’t say Kurdistan is not affected by Iran / Iraq / US conflict... quite the opposite.
Our puppet Kurdish leaders just abstained from the vote to kick the yanks out today... and given the tribal nature of Iraq (including Kurdistan) they will be seen as traitors.. this is a big deal in tribal societies.
Wonder who will protect them once the US is out, and how they will manage to negotiate anything in there favour going forward and when the time comes.
This is a New uncertainty around Genel now, the argument that Kurdistan is a safe haven within Iraq is no longer the case, ISIS just attacked Kirkuk today.

Unfortunately things will not settle down by one by either US backed gov or Iran backed government taking control as no party will give up power.
Much more bloodshed and instability is expected until one side is brought down to its knees (either the US or Iran).
US is no longer the power it used to be so dont expect it to restore stability anytime soon let alone EVER... they are fithing a lost battle.
Iran has nothing to lose therefore will fight till the last breath.
Iraq cant make a choice since its utterly divided between the sunnis and shias.
The only mitigation for Genel is to shield itself from this mess under the umbrella of a Semi autonomous KRG acting Neutral since you wouldn't wanna take sides in such situation... luckily exports are through Cehyan, so maintaining good relationship with Turkey is more important than the situation in Baghdad.

...the next battleground

...Right...

Watch out for the potential revision in reserves ... if this disappoints more downside is expected.
“Increased water cut” “faster than expected decline in well productivity”... all these are signs of potential impairment as the wells are no longer producing as expected... so a downward revision of total reserves is very likely...