RE: Scoreline...1-18 Jan 2020 11:37
Hawkey, since the recent peak of 224p in Begining of November GENL has gone down 21%... while POO has cone up 11% during that same time.
This decoupling mainly due to Iraq related problem from uncertainty, to payment delays and now attacks.
And all this despite Genel's great performance and class management.
The issue here is clearly not the company so your comments on projects, production and future potential are on point but all these are irrelevant to the SP as it is mainly driven by sentiment in the region and that sentiment is totally opposite to the stellar new coming out the company itself.
So do expect further downside regardless of POO.
As for POO... the market is very well supplied and with ample spare capacity (3.5mbbl). not even Abqaiq bombing were able to meaningfully affect prices. The only thing that could actually result in a meaningful spike in POO is the closure of the straight of Hormuz which carries 16-18mbbl/d... and that, for a long time period.
Supply fundementals have been very strong... and that has been demonstrated by the fact that no geo politcal event regardless of its magnitude has been able to shift these fundementals.
Also, do you reallythink that a Megalomaniac narcissit like Trump would settle for a tie? read his book The Art of the Deal... you will undetstand his way of thinking.