Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It’s not live I don’t think but if it’s Sarah lowther interviewing him which it usually is she won’t have any trouble asking the tough questions and she’ll get an answer. The twitter page suggests they will be interviewing him soon ie next few hours I imagine so get the questions in.
The site is https://total-market-solutions.com/ I assume the interview would be released later this afternoon. I’ll put a link on here for you if and when it does.
To be fair I can see why for people who aren’t totally clued up on the company may get confused with these rns’. A better job in ongoing rns’ need to explain the sales process and the fact their is a lag between the sales order and receiving full payment. Most farmers get credit and most get a year to pay once they’ve had their harvest.
John I respect your opinion, but I’m really not sure you can say we’re being outcompeted. We’ve exceeded sales targets with 1 quarter still to go. Most likely 170kt this year. Would we not have all jumped at that in January 22 having sold 85kt the previous year. I would, and am!
Looking forward. We’ve 2.4m aud cash as at June, cash flow positive. 78 aud sales price which as pointed out earlier is likely to increase. Also- looking to 2023- previously almost all our customers who have tried the product have come back and bought more. No reason next year we can’t be targeting 250kt.
Aim is full of short term traders I agree. There is however benefits to long term holders like myself however, you get a chance to average down/top up at prices that aren’t reflective of the business! Yes seeing the swings can be emotional and tough to take, but when you take a step back, you realise the value on offer and it becomes a great opportunity in my opinion.
All the traders out. Before the q3 update which is music to my ears. Q3 should confirm a great year to date, with commentary about solid profits. This is a share I can hold in this environment without fearing a raise, business being affected and the company earning in brl not pounds £! :)
Playing around with some different inputs with chiques profit calculator https://ronsworld.co.uk/green-shoots/harvest/
Even only accounting for a 230 brl selling price. For context we’ve been selling kp fertil at 200brl the last few years yet this year the chairman has already stated we’ve had substantial price rises and 3 overall price rises and the coMpany we’re debating a 4th at the start of q3 - the 230 price I’m using is only a 15% increase on historical prices. Also consider competitors have increased prices this year over 100%.
12 aud opex cost. Likely to be lower in my opinion but trying to work on very cautious figures.
230 brl selling price or 67 aud.
Selling 150kt- which the company stated they expect to exceed this year.
KP FERTIL revenue for the year $10,125,000
Cost of sales $1,800,000
Gross profit KP Fertil $8,325,000
Gross Profit Total KP Fertil $8,325,000
Overheads for the year $2,800,000
Profit after overheads $5,525,000 equals £3,280,000 profit. With no tax to pay due to previous tax losses.
This in my opinion is the absolute minimum profit we will achieve with 150kt sales. Would expect out selling price to be up near 300 aud and opex 10 aud and potentially 150kt exceeded.
£3,280,000 profit - at £20m mcap in the sector were in, with a lot of the heavy lifting re capex and long term work with the farmers to get them to commit to kp fertil already achieved leaves very little room for downside in my opinion.
Fast forward 12 months, if we were to sell 250kt next year which given historical performances year on year is achievable in my opinion, then the profit figure using very conservative pricing and opex is £6m+ free cash. Add on the limestone that has the potential to deliver significant revenues going forward and can be developed from profits from arapua, the future is very bright in my opinion.
Fast forward 3 years, I see no reason why we can’t be selling at 320kt capacity- churning £8/9m profits from arapua using the same conservative numbers. Plus potentially a limestone asset that Brian said will be similar style mine and economics to arapua. No reason why we couldn’t be looking at profit figures after tax in the double digits in £’s with no dilution to the shares in issue right now.
Find companies where it’s hard to loose and your risk to the downside is well protected and they almost always turn out to be the best investments.
All in my opinion! Looking forward to updates hopefully this coming week.