The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Hi mr bond, in my opinion it’s a share to hold for the long term most of all. Market is huge with 12m tonnes of potential demand just within 300km of Arapua. 100 years worth of product. Growing over 100% yr on yr sales if we hit 200,000 tonnes. My thoughts are mainly focused on the long term!
Excellent news. Fertiliser recognition from MAPA. Previously we could only really call our product a remineraliser. In a time when fertiliser supply is going to be very short due to terrible events in Ukraine leading to sanctions on Russia and Belarus exports. Being able to say we are a fertiliser product will be huge when farmers are scrambling to secure any fertiliser they can.
Of course once these farmers use the product and see for themselves that the product positively affects the soil too and all our other benefits they’ll come back and buy more like 99% of farmers before them have who have tried our product. Massive selling point! Very clear upside risk to beating our 150kt target in my opinion, very happy holder. DYOR!
Let’s also take nothing away from the company and management here. Yes fertiliser prices are rising sharply and obviously benefiting us in many ways. However we were already well on our way to farmer take up of kp fertil due to sales and marketing and spending time with farmers since 2019. This was our trajectory anyway, sanctions and higher prices will accelerate this and I’m delighted by this but let’s not loose sight of how well we’ve done and management have done.
Still excellent opportunity for the mid to long term investor at these prices imho. DYOR
At 300kt with sales price of 240 reais which would be a 20% increase from this year I calculate roughly 9.6m usd or 7.1m gbp. 47 usd sales price -10 usd opex = 37 usd profit.
40kt is breakeven therefore 260,000 at 37 usd profit gives us the 9.6m usd figure or 7.1m gbp.
Also I agree we could easily be closer to 200kt this year. Mainly from farmers seeing the results for themselves but now obvisouly the shortage of fertiliser tailwind we have now, due to awful scenes in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia and Belarus.
Swingy can’t see 50usd profit a tonne personally just yet or in the near term, unless your referring to aud. Conservative price rise of 10% (I think would more be like 20%) = 220 reais = 43 usd. Opex will be much cheaper now with solar panels, economies of scale.
Where are you getting the 50usd from? I think we’ll sell far more than 400kt anyway in 2-3 years time anyway and could be a lot sooner! I’m very bullish and have the same thinking as you re dividend. Cheers
Nice rise, happy to start getting some recognition here.
Yes we have a price rise this year, and I agree with goleftmassa prices need to be fixed so farmers can plan. For me the increase in price is of course welcomed but our main objective should be getting kp fertil in the hands of as many farmers as possible (knowing they will buy more next year etc)
If your an investor and not a trader I urge you to think about the longer term prospects and the potential cash and dividend this will hopefully throw off. 100 years worth of product with £8/9m profit from kp fertil at 400kt which I would hope would be increased with the demand. To add we have the limestone which we don’t have numbers for but would hope would compliment kp fertil well and be a significant revenue stream also. All fully funded and should be no change to shares in issue. This is only just the very beginning. Please DYOR
Not going to lie I find it really hard to forecast the future limestone revenue and profit. Brian stated it’s similar resource, and similar economics so I’d imagine something similar to kp fertil in time. I do think the uptake will be quicker than kp fertil was to get off the ground as farmers who buy kp fertil should hopefully just buy their limestone together with kp fertil.
Hopefully by next year we’d be looking at 250kt+ kp fertil sales so you’d hope that’s a great tailwind to then go and sell our limestone alongside kp fertil. To have any idea of numbers though I think it’s hard at this moment in time. I can totally see their reasoning for picking up the project and I’ve no doubt it will be a considerable revenue driver going forward but we’re talking 2-3years time id imagine.
24 months ago- 2020 sales the year we hit 54kt
Jan 87
Feb 1464
March 3334
This year were planned to do 150kt so naturally x3 - 87x3 = 261 plus we’re a week into feb. How much you add of feb is matter of opinion- feb 2020 -1464 x 3 = 4302. It’s first week of feb too so it’s going to be on the lower end, 400 tones I think reasonable or a tenth of feb total sales. So as a rough guess I’d assume our target for first 6 weeks was around 650 tonnes x 50 = 32,500. This is merely guess work and I don’t claim it to be any more than that. Please DYOR!
Lol just not true, just copy and paste over the bit in the rns it says that smalley please. Newbies on this board you’ll soon come to realise he’s got issues. Just log onto advfn bb chat and you’ll see his constant blab over the last 2/3 years. Clear agenda. Either lost money on this and sold the lows or member of competitive company, no other explanation of why someone would constantly spout just untrue things and post Brazilian links which make no sense.
I am all for listening to the other side of the story and really do welcome proper debate. I urge you to take a look at kreature and yp on advfn. Same people. Make up your own minds.
Great update today, been here 4 years and really starting to get excited about our future. Please DYOR. ATB
On the call he goes on to say this years buying period has started a lot earlier- farmers buying up product asap to ensure they get their allocation. I’d imagine first 6 weeks is usually very quiet, remember the growing cycle only improves throughout the year. I bet the majority of those q1 orders usually come towards the back end of q1 so March time.
If we say 1 -2k tonnes in first 6 weeks as it’s very quiet. With his comments on farmers buying vey early this year and even said the buying cycle has changed a bit somewhat then I think his comment of 50x could be correct. I expect the 150kt to be a minimum objective this year, knowing generally Brian is understated anyway and why would the company set themselves up for failure in announcing a figure they don’t know with high certainty they can meet. It’s all opinions at this point tbh, no hard facts but I see the vast positives.
Key take aways for me.
No cash needed through placing- 2 million in bank. Not sure aud or usd
Substantial price increase this year- can’t be disclosed due to competitors
Ruffly 50x the sales in first 6 weeks of the year compared to their target of what they thought they’d do the first 6 weeks.
No limestone production this year, hopefully next year to sell in conjunction with kp fertil.
Majority of the increase in sales tonnes are repeat purchases once farmer tries and sees for themselves.