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@Twatcher - As others have highlighted, Finncap have used the ABC-19 test as an indicative price.
We were told by Omega what expected price per test would be, but these were not taking into account UK Gov orders, with loan kit taken into consideration.. so I agree we are unlikely to realise £5 per Antigen test from the DHSC contract.
Expected pricing:
* Covid – Visitect Antigen LFT test - £5 per test @50% margin (taken from 15th July presentation)
* Covid - Visitect triple antibody test - £3.20 @50% margin (taken from 15th July presentation)
* Covid - UK-RTC - (UK Gov) £1.50 @50% margin (taken from 15th July presentation. We have been told since that for the initial UK gov order the margin was slightly higher)
* Covid - ELISA - TBC

@Oakhurst - We were informed at the time of the first RTC (1m) order that Omega realised a slightly higher margin than the previous noted 75p, but we don't know how much slightly is.

It also looks as though Omega won't be 100% max'd out on the DHSC contract:
https://twitter.com/NeilHenshaw5/status/1360226970987073539
So we could have a number of revenue streams, in addition to the £200m DHSC income.

DYOR, GLA.. and have a great weekend.

Vascular,

Too many unknowns to work it out, I think.
But the options that we are aware of are:

SureScreen:
If SureScreen is the DHSC chosen test, then both GAD and Omega would have to undertake Tech Transfer in their facilities before being able to service demand. 6 weeks+ before mass production could commence. That's not to say that tech transfer may not have already commenced, but we've not been told that.

Mologic:
GAD are already geared up to produce the Mologic test (an assumption, as they don't have to announce to market what step they are at)
Omega - Nearly completed Tech Transfer/UKCA approval, and could start manufacturing 900k per week from the end of Feb, increasing as capacity expands.
SureScreen would need to commence Tech Transfer/UKCA approval - 6+ weeks. That's not to say tech trader hasn't commenced. We don't know.
Mologic received £1m in funding, from UK Gov, at the start of the pandemic.

Avacta:
Nobody knows what stage of development/testing this test is currently in.
All 3 manufactures (from the FT article) would need to undertake tech transfer and UKCA approval - 6+ weeks.
Why is Avacta, were BBI and Abingdon (Avacta manufacturing partners) not mentioned in the FT article.

Or perhaps DHSC will choose a number of tests and therefore SureScreen and Mologic test would both be used now, and Avacta as and when ready.

There are too many unknowns for us to second guess the Government, in my view.

https://twitter.com/NeilHenshaw5/status/1360226970987073539

The FinnCap estimate of £150m-£200m is way off, if all these production lines are fully utilised, and tests sold.

Dibs,

Omega are a manufacturer/supplier of the ABC-19 test, to Abingdon (UK-RTC lead).
It would seem that reference to ABC-19 has now been removed from the site, which is a little odd, but suspect it is because they want to promote Omegas own products, for which we receive better margins.

With regards to no mention in the RNS.
We know that the RTC are tied to the DHSC framework agreement until this Sunday, when it expires.
Within the framework the UK Gov had first refusal on tests, and had to approve sales to other parties.
The current, soon to expire, framework is currently being contested by the GLP.
As such Abingdon have stated, "In-line with the Government's shift to a dynamic purchasing strategy, the Board expects that any future orders will be received via an application by the Company to future DHSC tender notices."

There is a UK Gov tender - https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W52/741343558), and note in the tender it states, "Owing to the developing nature of our response to COVID-19 the Contracting Authority is establishing a Dynamic Purchasing System to facilitate the procurement of Testing Kits, technologies or Devices for the detection, analysis or monitoring of COVID-19 Antibodies." as detailed in the Abingdon notice.

We also know that Abingdon, "is continuing to manufacture the AbC-19TM Rapid Test in anticipation of additional orders", and I have seen an email shared by another investor where Walbrook confirm Omega have been doing the same.
We have also seen in the last 2 weeks that Abingdon and CIGA have been actively promoting the ABC-19 test and taking orders, where previously they were only take pre-orders.

The test was also being evaluated by 27 countries.

All this leads me to suspect we will have news from next week on sales of whatever the consortium has been able to manufacture to date.

DYOR

* Progress on Tech Transfer and CE mark of the Mologic Antigen test (This must be close now)
From the Investor presentation, 30th November;
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5fbf9d78b19325729a9d7d05
19'20" onwards - "In terms of the technical transfer. As promised we have commenced that work, with Mologic, to bring the test into Alva".... " We expect that work to complete early in the new year, and importantly sales to commence early in the new year as well".

JH, I agree.. but if it is the Avacta test, that's a mighty fine secret to have kept.
The Omega Linkedin leak came ahead of the Mologic/Avacta partnership announcement, and there are a few interesting statements of ambition in there around accelerating CE marking of the test and faster route to market.

The bits that niggle me are:
SureScreen and Mologic are the only CE marked 'UK' Antigen tests available (I think) at this point in time.
AVCT don't appear to have met Design Freeze, but that could be that they just haven't announced it to the market.
The UK Gov need tests now, and will be announcing the plan out of lockdown in w/c 22nd Feb.
If it is the AVCT test, then why were Abingdon and BBI (Avactas manufacturing partners, alongside Mologic now) mentioed in the FT article?
GAD and Surescreen have received funding and support from the UK Goc in the setup and production of tests.
We now know that Omega are benefiting from loan kit to support the production of tests
Nothing mentioned, to date (that I know of) about AVCT receiving similar support (but that is very much how the Omega loan was managed too, so we could hear something on that in time).
Not sure we can wholly discount the Surescreen test either, given it's impressive S&S
And lastly.. it's the UK Gov we're dealing with.. It could go in any direction with them at the helm.

I agree Tecbadger.. the future looks good.

Just one comment though, Walbrook confirmed yesterday that TT for the Mologic test continues and that IDEALLY that would be the chosen test, not expected.
It would give us a number of advantages if it were the Mologic test, as we are nearing completion of TT for it anyway, and our Visitect test will be the same which could be used in our marketing of that... but it's not a given that will be the DHSC test.

In any event Omega are set to manufacture 2m per week for the UK Gov no matter what test is chosen.

Fair comment JAdam.

@Computer - I looked back at the investor presentations:
In the July presentation there was a budget set aside from the placing of:
£1.1m to take us from the 100k per week to 500k per week
a further £1.9m to go to 1m per week
So based on that, I'm assuming the extra 1m per week is coming from the Gov loan kit. But if that's there case, then the Gov loan must have been known about for some time, as 2m per week has been mentioned for a while now..

The 'loan' arrangement intrigues me.
It's fairly assumed that the UK Gov will receive a favourable volume price for the tests, based on the fact they supply some of the kit, but what happens after the UK Gov demand reduces (whenever that may be)?
I can't see them wanting to reclaim the kit.
I wonder if the 'loan' gets written off against the discounted price per test, and Omega end up with some nice shiny, slightly used, kit at the end of it to leverage for other tests/global demand and/or some kind of clause that permits the UK Gov to order more/new tests as needed in years to come.

And also worth noting that Food Intolerance and ELISA testing is run out of the Littleport location, so production/management of those products can be carried out in parallel to the LFT production in Alva.

Many, me included, would say it's very conservative, based on what we have been informed expected pricing per test might be.
Expected pricing:
* Covid – Antigen LFT test - £5 per test @50% margin (taken from 15th July presentation)
* Covid - Visitect triple antibody test - £3.20 @50% margin (taken from 15th July presentation)
* Covid - UK-RTC - (UK Gov) £1.50 @50% margin (taken from 15th July presentation. We have been told since that for the initial UK gov order the margin was slightly higher)
* Covid - ELISA - TBC
* Visitect CD4 - $4 per test @70% margin (taken from 30th November presentation)
* Food detective sales - $15.50 per test @70% margin (taken from 30th November presentation)

The above Antigen test price does not account for any UK Gov volume pricing, in light of loan equipment being supplied etc, so without seeing the DHSC agreement in terms of quantity required and agreed costs, it's hard to know exactly.
But it's highly likely that once UK Gov demand is met, whenever that might be, then production for other countries/parties will see the above pricing reflected.
the Finnnap report, as others have commented on this board, looks to be taking a very very conservative view of the numbers.

https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5fbf9d78b19325729a9d7d05

Slide 14

Dibs, the focus, for some time now, has been that Antigen is the bread winner.
It's probable that the capacity has been used to date, in the absence of an Antigen test, that the ABC-19 test has been stock piled. Abingdon confirmed they have been stock piling, and I am sure I saw a note from Walbrook (to another investor) that Omega had been doing the same. It is anticipated by many that when the DHSC framework agreement expires, next week, that these will leave the shelves.
Abingdon and CIGA have been actively promoting and taking orders (no longer pre-orders).

@Computer - Perhaps the UK gov felt they couldn't operate, purchase or approve sales to others, through the framework agreement, constrained by the GLP action.
Perhaps they are expecting them to provided to the UK Gov through the new tender process.

And another thought, if it is AVCT then why weren't BBI and Abingdon called out FT article?
It's all as clear as mud.

At the end of the day, ODX will be making 2m tests a week (from April), most of which will be for the UK Gov, so heaps of cash will eventually be coming in.

@Computer - It may be a backdated order for Fortress, but a Non UK Gov orders would suit us better, profit wise, anyway.

Walbrook confirmed to me that "Omega is continuing to undertake tech transfer of the Mologic test and ideally that will be the test that passes performance evaluation and so would be manufactured under this contract"
However, in theory, it could be another test that the DHSC go with and Omega would be prepared to manufacture that too.

September = December.. sorry

I just looked back through some of the investor presentations, to better understand the expansion to 2m.

In the July presentation there was a budget set aside from the placing of:
£1.1m to take us from the 100k per week to 500k per week
a further £1.9m to go to 1m per week

So based on that, I'm assuming the extra 1m per week is coming from the Gov loan kit. But if that's there case, then the Gov loan must have been known about for some time, as 2m per week has been mentioned for quite some time now.

Based on the projected growth chart that get's shown everywhere, we were planned to be at 500k per week at the end of September, 600k per week end of Jan, and will be 900k per week at the end of Feb.
I'd like to think, in the absence of an Antigen test, and minimal CD4 sales, that the capacity has been used to stock pile ABC-19 tests in readiness for an expected Gov order, or more likely private sales next week.

@Regulator - I got the same response from Paul... you beat me to the post, thanks.

@BigBang - We do need the numbers and details confirmed before things truly move north. BUT...
Interestingly, Brokers have already put a 'bearish' view of £200m to come from this.
And that's just for this one agreement.