RE: Albania 5 to 26 Tcf gas(Gustavson) ?27 Mar 2026 00:17
The Manas team results defined and discovered a total of eight giant prospects which according to Gustavson calculations have the (P10) capacity to hold up to 5 billion barrels of light oil and 5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas if the prospects are oil filled.
If they contain oil with a gas cap the amount of recoverable oil drops to a still breath-taking 2.4 billion barrels of oil with 26 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. If mainly gas, the P10 amount recoverable is 46 Tcf an amount that would make it Europe’s largest field outside of Russia. These amounts are the headline best case volumes. Gustavson puts the most likely volume (P50) if principally oil at 2.98 billion barrels with 3 Tcf of gas.
Estimations
If oil with a gas cap the amounts are 1.4 billion Bbls of oil and 15 Tcf of gas and if just gas the P50 is 28 Tcf. The lowest case estimate for the prospects if oil filled, oil and gas or just gas is a respective 1.636 billion barrels, 738 million barrels with 8Tcf of gas and 16 Tcf of gas. Critically any of the above would make Manas a major oil and gas company.
No matter how good the Albanian project might be, however, Dr. Becker is quick to emphasize, that there are unknowns and with exploration there is always potential for disappointment. We know the prospects’ reservoir capacity is very large and that there is oil in the system. “But we will never really know for sure if some unexpected geological event has intervened”. This we will not know until the prospects are drilled”.
We can reduce the impact of these risks. The only way around this is to diversify our geological (and political risks). “We already have very high quality high impact plays in five countries”, Dr. Becker reminds us. “And in the next six months our goal is to add several more to what think is already an all-star list.”