Member Info for swizz

4 member states have declared their opposition to the inclusion of nat gas and nuclear today and Ireland are not one of them, Spain, Denmark, Luxembourg and Austria have issued a joint notice, but this is significantly less than the 20 member states required to stop the delegated act, so it looks increasingly likely it will go through,…GL S

Thanks ps, some weekend reading,..GL S

It’s late…*43API

The Lansdowne licence share currently is 20%, which is circa 70mboe and Barryroe is economically viable at $26 per barrel, so at circa $75 per barrel it’s a jaw dropping number, but obviously a lot of catastrophic decisions along the way have destroyed sentiment and confidence, along with the share price, but the energy security landscape has changed considerably in recent months and if this latest management team bring forward a credible plan, I believe they will find the support they need,…GL S

Btw - The gas is also vitally important and the following from a recent update,…”In addition to the oil resources in Barryroe, there are also substantial gas resources. Previous Competent Person Reports have indicated some 207 BCF of potential 2C resources. In addition to this the Basal Wealden C sand, that was gas bearing in the 48/24-10z well, has been estimated to hold c. 400 BCF GIIP.”

“It is therefore a realistic expectation that Barryroe could yield more than 500 BCF of natural gas, equivalent to around half the reserves of the Corrib Gas Field.”

4 member states have declared their opposition to the inclusion of nat gas and nuclear today and Ireland are not one of them, Spain, Denmark, Luxembourg and Austria have issued a joint notice, but this is significantly less than the 20 member states required to stop the delegated act, so it looks increasingly likely it will go through,…GL S

PS, where are you picking up the data that the oil has a high wax content?, the CPR’s that I have read, state circa 17% and it’s classified as a high quality sweet oil 43 APR,…GL S

I think next week looks very likely for the update and with the focus very much moving towards natural gas and with the EU Taxonomy vote taking place tomorrow, on the inclusion of Nat Gas and Nuclear, it could potentially provide Providence and Lansdowne the perfect platform for the Strategic update to be provided next week, along with it being the incentive for Ryan to finally sign off the SEL 1/11 lease undertaking, taking into account that the latest Q4 and H2 update on the petroleum leases has still not been released by the DECC, it does feel that each of these steps are now linked to each other,…GL S

Agreed Manyana, the focus is very much moving towards natural gas and with the EU Taxonomy vote taking place tomorrow, on the inclusion of Nat Gas and Nuclear, it could potentially provide Providence and Lansdowne the perfect platform for the Strategic update to be provided next week, along with it being the incentive for Ryan to finally sign off the SEL 1/11 lease undertaking, taking into account that the latest Q4 and H2 update on the petroleum leases has still not been released by the DECC, it does feel that each of these steps are now linked to each other,…GL S

Mandy Johnston in discussion with Paul Dunne in relation to Ireland’s energy mix and energy security, which provides a decent understanding of how significant Barryroe will be when it is fully developed, …GL S

https://www.goloudplayer.com/episodes/irelands-energy-security-ukraine-aHR0cHM6Ly9jZG4ucmFkaW9jbXMubmV0L3JhZGlvLWNtcy91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjIvMDEvMTQxMTM1MTcvMTQwMS1UUy1QT0RDQVNULm1wMw==

hw, it’s certainly been an absolute nightmare to date, with a catalogue of errors resulting in a destruction of shareholder value, that said, with new management at Providence and evidently a very supportive network of major shareholders, we are now hopefully approaching the point when value can start to be restored and more importantly the Barryroe project be developed in a logical and meaningful way,

There is certainly a significant change in the landscape, in relation to the political appetite in the EU in relation to natural gas and this could be further enhanced this week, when the various EU members vote on Friday on the introduction of gas and nuclear to the EU taxonomy and with Ireland recognising the importance of natural gas as a transition fuel, we may finally see some political will move towards the Barryroe project and whilst the current current energy crisis will unfortunately result in significant fuel poverty, it may sharpen the focus of the Irish administration to take a more supportive position in the development of indigenous assets, that can strengthen Ireland’s energy security and offset the dependence on imported fuels, with the release of the Providence strategic review only a few days away, we should be in a better position to understand what the future prospects will be, …GL S

There are a number of large trades that have been printed around mid price and above in recent weeks, I think we are circa 25m now, they haven't affected the bid or offer price at any stage, so I would suggest it is one of the larger holders undertaking some housekeeping,...GL S

Correct link,…

https://www.goloudplayer.com/episodes/irelands-energy-security-ukraine-aHR0cHM6Ly9jZG4ucmFkaW9jbXMubmV0L3JhZGlvLWNtcy91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjIvMDEvMTQxMTM1MTcvMTQwMS1UUy1QT0RDQVNULm1wMw==

Dr Paul Dunne and Mandy Johnston discussing Ireland’s energy security and its dependence on gas and oil, it also adds a decent insight to how significant the contribution from Barryroe will be when it is fully developed, no wonder the likes of Goodman, O’Driscoll, Furlong and Mentin, etc are so supportive of Providence,…GL S

https://pd5i4.app.link/DlwOWMDKSeb?$deeplink_path=podcast/579/318806

More text from the article, to add further context and also be prepared for Ireland to be dependent on natural gas for decades to come and Barryroe to play a pivotal role in the contingency plans post Corrib,…GL S

A spokeswoman for the Minister for the Environment told the Business Post that the government had supported the original taxonomy limit of 100 grams of CO2 per kWh. She said that officials were now scrutinising the latest Commission proposal and would raise Ireland’s interests and concerns in Brussels.

“Minister Ryan shares the concerns of other European colleagues about the reclassification of what is considered to be green investment. It is important to be clear that including something in the taxonomy does not mean we must use it and excluding it does not mean it is prohibited,” the spokeswoman said.

“The minister acknowledges that natural gas power plants will continue to play a part in Ireland’s transition to net zero. They are available to run when renewables, interconnection and storage are insufficient, and to allow renewable electricity facilitate the decarbonisation of heat and transport.The taxonomy will not impact expenditure within Ireland as we have an auction mechanism to deliver gas generation.”

JM would appear to think otherwise,....

· Securing the Lease Undertaking

All required technical and financial information in relation to the Barryroe Lease Undertaking, which requires Ministerial consent, has been submitted to the GeoScience Regulation Office (GSRO). The Board is confident that it has discharged all of its responsibilities and will continue to examine all options and act upon them, as required, to ensure that our shareholders' interests are protected.

Our key objectives can be summarised as follows:

1. Securing the award of the Lease Undertaking in relation to the Barryroe Field.

2. Developing an effective technical strategy for the optimisation of the value of the Barryroe Field through a phased development scheme and having regard to successive failed proposals.

3. Considering and developing an appropriate funding strategy.

4. Positioning PVR to play a key role during the energy transition phase to 2050.

Ryan is literally stuck between a rock and a hard place, as Ireland are indeed a contracted party and full signatories to the Energy Charter Treaty, ….

https://www.energychartertreaty.org/treaty/contracting-parties-and-signatories/

Interesting to note he acknowledged in a recent interview that it would cost Ireland’s tax payers $100’s of millions to buyout existing licenses and I would suggest that it will run into $billions if the licensing is not progressed, this places Providence and their major supporters in an extremely strong position and it provides a significant support to the underlying valuation, especially at the current mkt cap and with rapidly escalating energy crisis resulting in higher O&G prices,…GL S

“The Government will not look to buy back existing exploration licences held by fossil fuel companies.”

“It would cost many hundreds of millions and I don’t think the Irish taxpayer would look too kindly on that,” Minister for Climate Action Eamon Ryan said.”

“Several other exploration licences are live but Minister Ryan ruled out buying them back as Quebec has done because of the expense involved.”

Perhaps a possible outcome of the strategic review, with curtailing global supply and exploration programs across the O&G sector, perhaps a read across to Providence, considering the number of deal makers close to the inside track at PVR, should the lease undertaking get ministerial sign off?,…GL S

Courtesy of Christy,..

From Malcy's blog ref: Angs announcement yesterday. Hopefully the start of interest reappearing in the sector.

It will come as no surprise to readers to know that I am not one bit surprised at this announcement nor even that it is Angus that has started the process off. This is a cyclical industry and we are at the point at which the vultures have seen a great deal of hard work and a massive amount of investment injected in projects which are at the tipping point of very substantial returns.

A while ago when I first started writing about Angus post its corporate disaster zone I met CEO George Lucan who gave me chapter and verse about his dreams for Saltfleetby, I believed the story then and now someone has seen it grow into a perfect sized asset in an international gas business which only becomes obvious when it is on the evening news.

For Angus there is only so much one can say because it is now in a bid situation but the way that the market has unsurprisingly hugely undervalued its assets is regrettably the case across the board, so investors should look at other assets equally undervalued if they havent already done so. The fact that Angus has rung the first bell is of massive credit to the CEO and the board who are allowing shareholders the chance to evaluate what appears on the table. After a long time in which the value has lain unnoticed, it is time for the bidders to put the money down, if it is not enough let’s hope the shareholders don’t follow the disappointing record of institutions caving early and cheaply..

I have been very positive on the oil price since the bounce in mid 2020 and last year the price was up over 50%, this was at a time that oil companies cut costs to the bone, sometimes way too much, leading to the price rises that are already coming through. But do not forget the natural gas price which for different reasons has increased by even more than oil since then and has also left a vast panoply of undervalued assets.

Speaking to a leading fund manager recently on how this is panning out for investment in the hydrocarbon sector this year he put it very succinctly. When huge cash flow meets significant capex and opex reductions, the profitability and the inevitable cash flow of the sector is going to result in growth in earnings, asset values and shareholder returns. With WTI at $80 today the scope is incredible and by that I mean downside, after all most companies are doing their sums at say, $50 but most work down to $30, just what are the returns on that basis?

So, Angus has fired the starting gun but as I said it could be anyone.

New finance options to open up for Barryroe, in light of EU Taxonomy update?, perhaps this is also linked to the strategic review being delayed, apparently the draft text of the inclusion of nuclear and natural gas as transition fuels will be released today, with France pushing for nuclear and Germany pushing for natural gas,…GL S

VDL sparks EU fallout as bloc caves to Macron's nuclear pressure with huge 'pivot'

“THE EUROPEAN Commission chief Ursula Von Der Leyen appears to have conceded to Emmanuel Macron as the EU prepares to include nuclear energy in the green taxonomy list.”

“It is also expected that the EU Commission will label nuclear energy and natural gas a “transition energy” after Germany strongly pushed for its inclusion. The EU taxonomy for sustainable activities is a system of classification that is established to determine which investments are environmentally sustainable.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1542690/ursula-von-der-leyen-emmanuel-macron-eu-green-taxonomy-nuclear-energy

From the Lansdowne RNS,…

About Barryroe

Barryroe, located in the North Celtic Sea Basin, off the south coast of Ireland, has had six wells successfully drilled on the structure. Hydrocarbons have been logged in all six wells, with flow test results from four wells. Four wells were drilled in the 1970’s by Esso with a further appraisal well drilled in 1990 by Marathon Oil. The sixth well was drilled by Providence & Lansdowne in 2011/12. The oil is light (43° API) with a wax context of c. 17-20%. The successfully tested reservoir sands are of Cretaceous Middle and Lower Wealden age located between c. 4,500’ TVDSS and 7,550’ TVDSS. The field is covered by both 2D and 3D seismic, the latter which was acquired in 2011.

Following acquisition and interpretation of the new 2011 3D seismic data together with the subsequent drilling and testing of the 48/24-10z Barryroe appraisal well in 2012, Providence retained the services of Netherland Sewell & Associates Inc. (NSAI) to carry out a third party contingent resource audit (CPR) of the in-place hydrocarbon and recoverable resources for the Basal Wealden oil reservoir. NSAI reported that the Basal Wealden oil reservoir has a 2C in-place gross on-block volume of 761 MMBO with recoverable resources of 266 MMBO and 187 BCF of associated gas, based on a 35% oil recovery factor. A third party (CPR) audit of the overlying Middle Wealden, which was carried out by RPS Energy (RPS) in 2011, reported a 2C in-place gross on-block volume of 287 MMBO with technically recoverable resources of 45 MMBO and 21 BCF of associated gas, based on a 16% oil recovery factor.

The total combined audited gross on block 2C recoverable resources at Barryroe therefore amount to 346 MMBOE, comprising 311 MMBO and 207 BCF.

European countries will soon be scrambling to find gas from other routes, if Ireland is not interested in Barryroe, I am sure others will be, perhaps a connection into the UK would be an option?,…GL S

European gas prices hit record as Russian flows via Yamal reverse,..

“European gas prices hit a new record high on Tuesday after a pipeline that brings Russian gas to Germany switched to flow east, a move the Kremlin said had no political backdrop, while two big German customerssaid Gazprom was meeting supply obligations.”

“Westward gas flows through the Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the major routes for Russian gas to Europe, had been falling since Saturday and, after stopping early on Tuesday, reversed direction, data from network operator Gascade showed.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-flows-germany-via-yamal-europe-stop-gascade-data-shows-2021-12-21/