Member Info for swizz

A game changer?..it certainly has all of the ingredients to be considered so and perhaps the most material news in last 18 months or more,..GL S

No I don’t know Sean personally.

I would be very surprised if Sean O’Driscoll wasn’t involved.

Part 2,..

Asked if commercial LNG would have to be built in Ireland in the years ahead, Ryan said that was for the new energy security review to consider

“The world changed a year ago when those Nord Stream gas pipelines were blown up in the Baltic [Sea]. The concern about energy security and particularly gas pipelines was heightened. So we do need a form of storage and an alternative gas supply route and gas supply source so that, should anything happen, we have some protection. We can’t protect against everything, but we do have a security issue there we have to address,” Ryan said

“The metrics we will look at are: how much security can you get? Are you certain you can get an alternative source of supply? How low-carbon is it? Because you can’t do something if it is in breach of your climate limits. And what is the price? Those are the three things to consider in any energy trilemma. We will look at it on that basis.”

Asked if he thought the Moffat interconnector was at risk of being blown up, Ryan said he thought it was “unlikely”, but that we had to plan for “any eventuality”
A new memorandum of understanding is also to be signed by the British and Irish governments on gas security, which will guarantee an equal distribution of gas across the two islands in the event of a gas emergency

Ryan said he expected to sign the memorandum shorty, and that it would improve Ireland’s energy security

“I think it was needed because of Brexit and to make sure we don’t have any gaps,” Ryan said.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/ryan-mulls-green-policy-u-turn-on-commercial-lng-terminal/

Is Ryan about to open the door and change his tune, the reference to low carbon supply would appear to indicate so, or is it the thought of pending legal action from the Barryroe partners, you sense material events are just around the corner!

Part 1,..

Ryan mulls Green policy U-turn on commercial LNG terminal

Government under growing pressure to accept need for commercial liquified natural gas import terminal as concerns grow over security of supply

Eamon Ryan has conceded that Ireland may need to build a liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal, reversing a key Green Party policy, because the “world changed” when the Nord Stream gas pipelines were blown up last year

The Business Post understands that the government is under growing pressure to accept the need for a commercial LNG import terminal despite Ryan having previously ruled this out

Ryan’s department is due to publish a new energy security review in the coming weeks
This newspaper has also learned that the Irish government is about to sign a new contract with the British government on gas supply, due to concerns over Ireland’s over-reliance on the UK for most of its gas imports

Ireland imports approximately 80 per cent of its gas needs from the UK through the Moffat interconnector with Scotland

Ryan, the Green Party leader and Minister for the Environment, previously ruled out commercial LNG, instead promoting the idea of a “State-led” gas import or storage facility that would be non-commercial in nature and would act only as a back-up in the event of an emergency gas shortage scenario

However, it is understood that this model has been deemed unviable by many experts who contributed to the energy security review public consultation

This is due to the large capital cost for the State to build or rent a back-up LNG facility that would have no commercial returns, and the need to sign advance commercial contracts to guarantee the availability of LNG from other countries to fill it

The approval of commercial LNG would be a significant policy departure for the Greens and would likely cause yet another rift in the party.

Part 2,…

Last week, Europa released a study from sustain:able, an emissions advisory company, that found the average emissions intensity for the Corrib field is 5 kg CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe)

As Europa will be piggybacking on Corrib infrastructure, the carbon intensity of its field would be lower at 2.8 kg Co2/boe. The average emissions of imported gas from the UK is 36kg Co2/boe. Liquefied natural gas shipped from the United States would have an emission intensity of 145kg Co2/boe, or more than 50 times that of indigenous gas

Whether these arguments will sway Ryan to publicly back offshore exploration is a moot point. The patience of a fired-up Barryroe, and its clutch of wealthy shareholders, is wearing thin and the company is expected to heap pressure on the GSRO to make a final decision, or face a potential legal action.

Lansdowne becoming more compelling as each day passes by and a great way to get high intensity and low dilution coverage of Barryroe and a 20% share of circa 350m barrels of oil and so much more to follow,..

Part 1….

Ireland’s energy policy is ‘import gas and keep schtum’

Prospector eyeing the Cork coast wants an end to the official silence on gas and oil exploration

Barryroe Offshore Energy has called the bluff of the government on its offshore energy policy. Two years ago the old Providence Resources filed an application with the GeoScience Regulation Office (GSRO) at the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications to secure a lease from officials to drill further for oil and gas at a prospect off the Cork coast

At the end of November, after 20 months of deliberation, Barryroe and its joint venture partner, Lansdowne, were given just 21 days to demonstrate their financial capability

Vevan, Barryroe’s largest shareholder, owned by the billionaire Larry Goodman, promptly announced that it would subscribe to a €40 million convertible loan note to cover the cost of the drilling programme

In recent weeks, three other shareholders — Pageant Holdings, the family office of the businessman Nick Furlong; Kite Lake Capital, a UK fund; and Roaring Waters, the investment vehicle of the former Glen Dimplex chief executive Sean O’Driscoll — agreed to take up about €11 million of the convertible loan note issuance

Last week, the company announced that it would raise up to €20 million in an open offer and rights issue, thereby offering other shareholders in the company the opportunity to protect their investment from being diluted in the face of the conversion of the loan notes into equity

The equity issuance will dispel the notion that the largest shareholders are trying to wrest control of the firm through the loan note issuance. It is also a call to fight official mothballing of the project.

The ball is now in the court of the GSRO and its overlord, Eamon Ryan, leader of the Green Party

The frustration for Barryroe, and prospectors for gas off the west coast is that the government has not definitively ruled on whether it plans to ban offshore exploration here. They are in a policy limbo, with their exploration plans suspended in the silence of the GSRO

The explorers argue that, with increasing electrification, Ireland will continue to need gas to fuel the transition to a low or zero-carbon economy, and rather than import gas, it should undertake targeted exploration off its coast

Europa Oil & Gas, an Aim-listed explorer, has a licence to explore acreage situated 11km from the existing Corrib field. If it managed to prove reserves at its field, it could tap into the Corrib subsea pipeline and terminal at Bellanaboy, Co Mayo

Part 2..

“The metrics we will look at are: how much security can you get? Are you certain you can get an alternative source of supply? How low-carbon is it? Because you can’t do something if it is in breach of your climate limits. And what is the price? Those are the three things to consider in any energy trilemma. We will look at it on that basis.”

Asked if he thought the Moffat interconnector was at risk of being blown up, Ryan said he thought it was “unlikely”, but that we had to plan for “any eventuality”
A new memorandum of understanding is also to be signed by the British and Irish governments on gas security, which will guarantee an equal distribution of gas across the two islands in the event of a gas emergency

Ryan said he expected to sign the memorandum shorty, and that it would improve Ireland’s energy security

“I think it was needed because of Brexit and to make sure we don’t have any gaps,” Ryan said.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/ryan-mulls-green-policy-u-turn-on-commercial-lng-terminal/

Is Ryan about to open the door?..the reference to low carbon supply would appear to indicate so…

Part 1..

Ryan mulls Green policy U-turn on commercial LNG terminal

Government under growing pressure to accept need for commercial liquified natural gas import terminal as concerns grow over security of supply

Eamon Ryan has conceded that Ireland may need to build a liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal, reversing a key Green Party policy, because the “world changed” when the Nord Stream gas pipelines were blown up last year

The Business Post understands that the government is under growing pressure to accept the need for a commercial LNG import terminal despite Ryan having previously ruled this out

Ryan’s department is due to publish a new energy security review in the coming weeks
This newspaper has also learned that the Irish government is about to sign a new contract with the British government on gas supply, due to concerns over Ireland’s over-reliance on the UK for most of its gas imports

Ireland imports approximately 80 per cent of its gas needs from the UK through the Moffat interconnector with Scotland

Ryan, the Green Party leader and Minister for the Environment, previously ruled out commercial LNG, instead promoting the idea of a “State-led” gas import or storage facility that would be non-commercial in nature and would act only as a back-up in the event of an emergency gas shortage scenario

However, it is understood that this model has been deemed unviable by many experts who contributed to the energy security review public consultation

This is due to the large capital cost for the State to build or rent a back-up LNG facility that would have no commercial returns, and the need to sign advance commercial contracts to guarantee the availability of LNG from other countries to fill it

The approval of commercial LNG would be a significant policy departure for the Greens and would likely cause yet another rift in the party

Asked if commercial LNG would have to be built in Ireland in the years ahead, Ryan said that was for the new energy security review to consider

“The world changed a year ago when those Nord Stream gas pipelines were blown up in the Baltic [Sea]. The concern about energy security and particularly gas pipelines was heightened. So we do need a form of storage and an alternative gas supply route and gas supply source so that, should anything happen, we have some protection. We can’t protect against everything, but we do have a security issue there we have to address,” Ryan said

“The metrics we will look at are: how much security can you get? Are you certain you can get an alternative source of supply? How low-carbon is it? Because you can’t do something if it is in breach of your climate limits. And what is the price? Those are the three things to consider in any energy trilemma. We will look at it on that bas

Part 2..

As Europa will be piggybacking on Corrib infrastructure, the carbon intensity of its field would be lower at 2.8 kg Co2/boe. The average emissions of imported gas from the UK is 36kg Co2/boe. Liquefied natural gas shipped from the United States would have an emission intensity of 145kg Co2/boe, or more than 50 times that of indigenous gas

Whether these arguments will sway Ryan to publicly back offshore exploration is a moot point. The patience of a fired-up Barryroe, and its clutch of wealthy shareholders, is wearing thin and the company is expected to heap pressure on the GSRO to make a final decision, or face a potential legal action.

Part 1..

Ireland’s energy policy is ‘import gas and keep schtum’

Prospector eyeing the Cork coast wants an end to the official silence on gas and oil exploration

Barryroe Offshore Energy has called the bluff of the government on its offshore energy policy. Two years ago the old Providence Resources filed an application with the GeoScience Regulation Office (GSRO) at the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications to secure a lease from officials to drill further for oil and gas at a prospect off the Cork coast

At the end of November, after 20 months of deliberation, Barryroe and its joint venture partner, Lansdowne, were given just 21 days to demonstrate their financial capability

Vevan, Barryroe’s largest shareholder, owned by the billionaire Larry Goodman, promptly announced that it would subscribe to a €40 million convertible loan note to cover the cost of the drilling programme

In recent weeks, three other shareholders — Pageant Holdings, the family office of the businessman Nick Furlong; Kite Lake Capital, a UK fund; and Roaring Waters, the investment vehicle of the former Glen Dimplex chief executive Sean O’Driscoll — agreed to take up about €11 million of the convertible loan note issuance

Last week, the company announced that it would raise up to €20 million in an open offer and rights issue, thereby offering other shareholders in the company the opportunity to protect their investment from being diluted in the face of the conversion of the loan notes into equity

The equity issuance will dispel the notion that the largest shareholders are trying to wrest control of the firm through the loan note issuance. It is also a call to fight official mothballing of the project.

The ball is now in the court of the GSRO and its overlord, Eamon Ryan, leader of the Green Party

The frustration for Barryroe, and prospectors for gas off the west coast is that the government has not definitively ruled on whether it plans to ban offshore exploration here. They are in a policy limbo, with their exploration plans suspended in the silence of the GSRO

The explorers argue that, with increasing electrification, Ireland will continue to need gas to fuel the transition to a low or zero-carbon economy, and rather than import gas, it should undertake targeted exploration off its coast

Europa Oil & Gas, an Aim-listed explorer, has a licence to explore acreage situated 11km from the existing Corrib field. If it managed to prove reserves at its field, it could tap into the Corrib subsea pipeline and terminal at Bellanaboy, Co Mayo

Last week, Europa released a study from sustain:able, an emissions advisory company, that found the average emissions intensity for the Corrib field is 5 kg CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe).

Lansdowne…Updated 14 February 2023

The total number of ordinary £0.001 shares in issue is 993,618,337. The major shareholders are as follows.

NO. OF SHARES %
Directors 10,229,279 1.10%
LC Capital & Affiliates 171,241,938 18.34%
Brandon Hill Capital 100,671,158 10.78%
Spreadex Ltd. 84,669,449 9.07%
Mr. Mark Ward 49,894,794 5.34%
Hargreaves Lansdown 46,693,879 5.00%
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe 39,499,227 4.23%
Interactive Investor 39,296,867 4.21%
Shares not in public hands 282,142,375 30.22

LOGP have just raised 300k recently to cover costs for approx 6 months, so there is no need for them to do anything hasty at this stage and it is far better for them and their shareholders to sit on the sidelines and let Barryroe get their corporate activities sorted out, but in the fullness of time Lansdowne will raise and ideally post LU being granted and at much higher levels than Barryroe and I suppose that is the benefit of being the junior partner, I understand the last two raises at Lansdowne have been restricted to circa 8 major shareholders, so they are clearly keeping things very tightly held at the moment and understandably so,…GL S

A very basic indicator for the value comparison of BEY and LOGP, is the market cap of each of the partners, rather than their respective share price,

If you take into current BEY total voting rights of 1.14b approx and if the full £20m is raised in the open offer, that will be another 1.34b, so heading towards 2.5b in issue and a mkt cap of approx £38m for BEY and the LOGP current mkt cap is £4.2m with circa 994m in issue.

So I would suggest LOGP are currently offering compelling value, sat on the sidelines whilst Barryroe the operator navigates through this stage of the development funding process.

From Tuesday March 21st,..GL S

One major shareholder in Barryroe has converted 73m warrants today for circa £1.1m, following interesting comments from Leo Varadkar the Taoiseach earlier this week in the Dáil,…

“We are not issuing any new exploration licences and have not done so for a number of years but there are existing ones which are still valid. Our view is that we will continue to need to use natural gas, perhaps for decades. Natural gas is a much cleaner fuel than coal, which we also use, and oil, which we use on occasion. It makes sense to see natural gas as a transition fuel. Indeed, the Minister, Deputy Eamon Ryan, has signed off in recent weeks on the purchase of new gas turbines to guarantee energy security next winter. For so long as we are using natural gas as a transitional fuel, it makes sense to use it rather than to import it. More emissions arise from bringing gas in from other parts of the world than from using our own gas if we have it”

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/dail/2023-03-21/8/#spk_136

agreed, I took part in the placing and as I understand, it was limited to a very small group of existing and very supportive shareholders,..GL S

We appear to have an active stealth buyer in the background, with anything around 0.47 and sometimes lower have been buys and some decent sized clips have been picked up in recent weeks including another 2m today, perhaps Vevan are eying up another 20% of the project at knock down prices?!,..GL S

Confidence growing at LOGP and hopefully 2023 will be Barryroe’s year, Happy New Year,..GL S

"We would like to thank LC Capital for their continued support of the Company whilst we await the outcome of our application for a Lease Undertaking for the Barryroe Field. As reported last month we submitted additional material in support of our financial capability to carry out the proposed work programme, as did the Operator, Barryroe Offshore Energy. With the greatly increased concern regarding energy security for Ireland, we are optimistic of an award being made early in the new year. The Board remain strongly convinced that Barryroe can provide both oil and gas to partially satisfy Ireland's requirements over the next few decades, during the transition to a net zero carbon emission economy"

Confidence growing at LOGP and hopefully 2023 will be Barryroe’s year, Happy New Year,..GL S

"We would like to thank LC Capital for their continued support of the Company whilst we await the outcome of our application for a Lease Undertaking for the Barryroe Field. As reported last month we submitted additional material in support of our financial capability to carry out the proposed work programme, as did the Operator, Barryroe Offshore Energy. With the greatly increased concern regarding energy security for Ireland, we are optimistic of an award being made early in the new year. The Board remain strongly convinced that Barryroe can provide both oil and gas to partially satisfy Ireland's requirements over the next few decades, during the transition to a net zero carbon emission economy"

The National Risk Assessment released yesterday says it all, the final paragraph should be included in Ryan’s termination notice!,…GL S

Section 6..

6. Disruption to a secure and sustainable energy supply

Due to our geographic location and our current high reliance on imports to meet the majority of our energy needs, Ireland is highly vulnerable to the impact of disruptions in the supply of energy. In addition, there are increasing energy demands from a growing population and economy with overall demand for electricity expected to increase 37 per cent by 2031.1 As part of measures to meet our climate change obligations, Ireland is also working to electrify parts of the transport and heat sectors, which will further increase reliance on the electricity network.

The majority of natural gas currently consumed in Ireland is imported from a single source in Scotland. By 2030, with the continued reduction in production from the Corrib Gas Field, Ireland’s dependence on natural gas imports via this source is expected to increase to over 90 per cent. Notwithstanding the increased use of renewables and energy efficiencies to be achieved over this time, this reliance on a single source and its associated infrastructure creates a significant risk for security of supply.

Risks in relation to secure and sustainable energy supplies have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian supply which has caused a considerable price shock to global energy markets. A lack of storage capacity means Ireland is particularly exposed to risks with regards to gas supply disruption. In addition, a combination of deteriorating performance of the stock of existing thermal electricity generating power plants, the recent problems of delivery of planned thermal generation capacity through auction processes and unanticipated planning and technical difficulties, as well as the unpredictability of wind energy generation, has left the outlook for Ireland’s electricity supply in a challenging state.

https://assets.gov.ie/241713/82a1853e-7198-4e44-8903-2d1c4351c670.pdf