The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
2,..There are of course risks, as the company has not yet secured litigation funding (although Mantle Law are very proficient in this area as are their network of litigation funders) and of course the ECT hearing could find in favour of the Irish Government, but if you were take a prudent approach with the above numbers and with a current share price of circa 0.1p per share there is still very good optionality here, the ring fencing makes that even more attractive as, in the event of a positive ECT outcome, those on the register at suspension date won’t be further diluted for the ringfenced pot.
In regards to the suspension LOGP would have a strong case to argue with any party undertaking an RTO that it offers upside of 0.4p to 2p (using above numbers) it clearly would need to be heavily risked, but It can also argue it has a valuable and viable AIM listing, as a result it is not unreasonable to assume any RTO (ignoring the ring fenced part of the ECT Claim) would take place in excess of the current market price of circa £1M and naturally If an RTO happens, the shares will recommence trading, shareholders on the register at 21.03 would continue to benefit with their ongoing LOGP shareholding assuming the LOGP makes an accretive transaction.
Plus the Irish government may also elect at any point to reinstate the licences, which would lead to lifting the suspension, but that again in any event would be viewed as a positive and it is certainly what we want, hence my thoughts around BOE.
Both BOE and LOGP want the drill turning and the LU decision reversed, but being fully combined in one entity makes a lot of sense in my opinion and it would ensure that the combined company has full access to the ECT pathway through Lansdowne being a UK domiciled company and with the funding capability of Vevan, it would very quickly dismiss the claim of financial stability, plus Lansdowne would be very capable of continuing to pay their way, in regards to the current equity structure of the licence 80/20 split with BOE.
It is very evident a seismic change of Irish politics is now underway and whilst LOGP progress the ECT claim, the combined entity can be getting everything in order in anticipation of an Irish Government who will be less inclined to be governed by flawed ideology and if you are able to take some time out to review some of the documentation that has been filed with Ireland’s companies house, it is very evident what the intentions of BOE are, so picking up on your point of “getting something back”, this story is far from over, I am certainly sticking with it and I know others are,..GL S
Morning Spud,
I hope you are well and a 2-part reply of my thoughts and observations, ..
1,..The recent news that Lansdowne intends to ringfence all/part of any awards under its ECT claim against the Irish Government for the shareholders on the share register on March 21st, is certainly very welcome and underlines we have a conscientious board led by SB, some I acknowledge will say that is the least we deserve, and it is difficult to argue that point, although your point about integrity
Is very pertinent and that in part has been a factor in my support of the company and I am sure it has been with others, and I am confident the background support remains very strong,
I along with a small group have continued to support the company and will continue to do so, there is circa 75% of the equity across a small group of investors and my family and close connections are holding circa 15% of the 75% and we will not be selling, and I don’t believe the others will either,
I would suggest March 21st is a stepping stone, and whilst the shares will be suspended, as LOGP is now classified as an AIM cash shell, it is right to safeguard shareholder’s pro rata economic interests in the claim at the time of suspension, I believe It is highly likely over the months ahead, that the company will look to undertake an RTO and recommence trading, this of course will involve the issue of shares via fund raising, which in turn will lead to dilution of existing positions (and by default the % interest in any ECT claim award) should the ring fence not take place.
So, I would suggest it is worth looking at the value proposition and pathway ahead, If were to assume an award of circa £75M (LOGP are detailing +$100M claim) and if we assumed costs of 33% (fees/litigation funding of no win-no fee) that would potentially give £50M of clear proceeds.
SB and LOGP have not been precise in terms of what will be ringfenced at this stage (or confirmed the litigation deal), that I sense we will see soon enough, but you can easily recalculate various permutations of say 50%/£25M, 70%/£35M, etc. Etc and if you consider that we 1.233bn shares in issue, the numbers detailed relate to 2p to 3.65p per share (could potentially be in the ring-fenced ECT pot), plus there is a corresponding figure left in the plc, ranging from 2p to 0.4p respectively, which gives us a total of 4p a share of value (circa 50x times the current SP), so the more we have ring-fenced for existing shareholders the better.
11 years ago and I sense the next time it flows will be a lot sooner!, stay strong everyone, the economics of this project will ensure it becomes a reality in my opinion and the winds of change are on the horizon,..GL S
https://youtu.be/nkVvmyCiFu4?si=87rWFmjKNm9cvi10
I wouldn’t be surprised to some consideration for Vevan to reverse their BOE interests into LOGP, with the restructuring ensuring the existing Lansdowne holders are not disadvantaged by the equity distribution, I will look to add some more details on this early next week, ..GL S
Just a few thoughts and observations, which in part are based on conversations with others closer to the granular details,
I would suggest today is an important step forward and we are entering a very different phase of the litigation process, plus I don’t believe there is any suggestion that Ashurst’s have been dismissed, they were providing important counsel at the outset in relation to the ECT arbitration and potential discussions with the Irish government, this is very understandable as they have very strong in country representation in Ireland and also a well connected network, it is very evident that the discussions with the Irish authorities are at an impasse and It is understandable that Lansdowne are moving forward with their ECT litigation plans,
Mantle Law bring a very different and needed set of skills to the table, that Lansdowne clearly require, one could argue and justifiably so, that this should have happened months ago and time has been wasted in the hope that Ryan would enter into meaningful discussions,
I would also suggest, that it is imperative that Lansdowne press on and do so independently of what Vevan are planning, the Vevan plans will be forthcoming at some point in the future and don’t be surprised if there plans are linked to the election process in Ireland, where I suspect national interest and indigenous resources will be very topical,
Plus, Lansdowne’s compensation claim will hopefully provide a very useful counter balance to the operators and partners plans to reverse the LU decision, I hope that all makes sense,….GL S
Battle, just for clarity, the shares will be suspended, it will be far from over and I am sure measures will be put in place to facilitate the buying and selling of LOGP shares, the future of Lansdowne is certainly not dependent on its Aim listing and neither is the ECT litigation process, ..GL S
Morning all, I have been able to have a few catch up calls this week. with SB, three other major holders and also the broker, even though I have not been wall crossed, it would be inappropriate for me to share the granular details of those conversations, but discussions are moving forward on a number of fronts and as per recent RNS details, Lansdowne's focus is very much on the ECT litigation, plus, very close attention is on BOE and what their plans are going to be,
Whilst it is circa 8 months since the LU decision, we must be mindful that LG/Vevan and BOE did not emerge from the scheme of arrangement until early November and as the operator of the SEL 1/11 license, Lansdowne will need to fully understand the BOE forward plan and how they can align to that plan and I have no doubt that is exactly what is taking place,..GL S
Hey Spud, I have Ben off grid for a few weeks due to family illness, which sadly resulted in bereavement, I am only just getting back to BAU and I will be looking to catch up with a few people in the days ahead,
I did participate in the recent placing and I am very optimistic for the future and of positive developments, ..GL S
Agreed Battle, it is a very important development and just for completeness, the following from section 5.8 of the SOA, which directly references the new memorandum and articles of association and there adoption on November 8th 2023, it perhaps starts to make some sense that this release coincides with senior members of the Lansdowne team being in Dublin last week?,…GL S
5.8 - With effect from the Effective date, the company shall adopt a new memorandum and articles of association in place of its existing memorandum and articles of association in order to provide, amongst other things, for authorised share capital in the amount of €1,000,000 (one million) such amendment to take effect simultaneously with the cancellation.
Interesting to note that Lorsden (Jersey) Ltd and Vevan have published the new memorandum and articles of association for BEY, it certainly does not read like an organisation that is intent on just pursuing some form of creative accounting for tax purposes,..GL S
[url=https://postimg.cc/w1ZNZzJZ][img]https://i.postimg.cc/q7MGtM7J/IMG-2737.jpg[/img][/url]
Spud, at this stage I would suggest the focus must remain on the development of the asset and reaching a tangible agreement with the Vevan team to work collaboratively to do so, anything other than that would be a waste of time and energy, with the exception of the litigation plan which I understand is progressing,
I also understand from others closer to the granular details, that key members of the Lansdowne team are in Dublin and they are not there for Christmas shopping, I am expecting some depth and context to some key elements to be shared very soon,..GL S
Spud, it is an official date, it is within the scheme of arrangement document that was submitted to the high court and approved by the high court, as part of the confirmation hearing process, I have copied and pasted the two pertinent points from the SOA for you below,..GL S
Plus, the effective date was November 8th and I understand from someone close to the situation, they are a few days behind schedule.
4.16 The Investor will allocate to the Other Shareholders 5% of any net after-tax profits realised by the Company from the Barryroe field either through its sale or operation at any time in the 10 year period after the Effective Date (“the Proposal”).
4.17 For the avoidance of doubt, the Other Shareholders shall not be required to commit additional funds to participate in the Proposal. The documentation giving effect the Proposal will be prepared and distributed to Other Shareholders within 30 working days of the Effective Date.
Spud, I would suggest Lansdowne are being very strategic with the content of their comm's, not having a meeting is not an indicator, that discussions are progressing, plus it is vitally important that the litigation/compensation pathway remains very robust,
Today's comm's are predominantly dominated by wording and process to satisfy the Nomad and Aim regulations, due to the capital reorganisation, I also understand that there are some minor procedural delays with BOE and I am sure we will gain a much greater understanding of the future plan, when all of the key aspects of the SOA are squared away,
The positive from today, is that without exception all of the key stakeholders of Lansdowne are unified and supportive, myself included, I would also add, that the Irish Times article posted below is digested by anyone with any interest in the project, ..GL S
You are not reading it right, as per the RNS it is a reorganisation to reduce the nominal value of the new ordinary shares,..
"effected by each Ordinary Share being sub-divided and converted into one New Ordinary Share of £0.0001 and one Deferred Share of £0.0009. The New Ordinary Shares will continue to carry the same rights as are attached to the Ordinary Shares."
All of the value will be retained in the new ordinary shares,..GL S
Hey Spud, I posted the below about a week ago and I stand by every word, we are obviously past the SOA being confirmed and there will be a degree of Vevan and Lansdowne being as strategic as they can be, in relation to the political headwinds from Ryan, but having watched his media performances yesterday, he is becoming more unhinged as every day passes, the number of contradictions and misinformation in his comments, for someone in public office was quite alarming,
Lansdowne will recognise, that they will need the biggest stick possible, to get Ireland to rethink the ludicrous LU rejection decision, so with LG and Vevan now in stewardship of BOE and that alongside what I expect to be a very robust and significant ECT supported claim, we should see a material update in the next few weeks, this I believe will be linked to Vevan's 30 day time line, post the SOA confirmation on November 8th, ...GL S
Hey Spud, I am quietly confident that we will see confirmation of discussions between Lansdowne and Vevan, but only when the scheme of arrangement is confirmed by the high court, what will follow those discussions is speculation at this stage, but i would suggest it will relate to the forward path for SEL 1/11 and what steps can be taken to get the LU decision overturned,
Vevan and LG will bring significant capabilities to the table, both financial and litigation and any suggestion otherwise is ludicrous, plus Lansdowne bring significant technical and geological expertise to the table, but they are also very capable of meeting their financial obligations,
I have made it clear to other major shareholders that I would support the part funding of a JR with Vevan, as this is potentially an option for the partnership to consider and I know others would be willing to support that also,
That said, what is evidently clear in all of this, is what LG and Vevan see as the way forward, if they do indeed secure the approval of the SOA, but there are enough references in the SOA to indicate that SEL 1/11 is still an intrinsic part of their future plans and they have made it clear those plans will be set out in the first 30 days, post the high court ruling, so we will not have to wait to long,..GL S
It’s not information that is readily available, but it is a fact, that one Lansdowne shareholder made circa £7m of funds immediately available in November 2022, with bank statements to support and all of this information was provided to the Minster and the DECC, this was at exactly the same time that LG made the £40m available to BEY, it was done without hesitation, fanfare and most importantly, without any destructive terms to other Lansdowne shareholders,
Be in no doubt in relation to the depth of support that Lansdowne have and I am sure this along with a number of other pertinent details, will be clearly laid out to the courts, to underline the Ministers decision was not only ludicrous, it was completely baseless in regards to lack of funding to support the development,
I am sure with a more focused BOE, an agreement to move forward with Lansdowne, would easily be in reach in very short order,..GL S
Part 2,..
It is hard to see why the BOE directors showed so little fight when Ryan’s Department of Environment, Climate and Communications [DECC] pulled the rug out from under them in May this year by rejecting the lease-undertaking application. They had, after all, got Goodman to agree to a €40m convertible loan on November 23 last year to fully fund the proposed Barryroe development programme, as well as arranging a top-up €20m placing on April 24. In those circumstances, it is impossible to believe they considered Ryan’s refusal to be reasonable.
Indeed, on May 23, BOE’s much smaller (20%) minority partner in Barryroe, Lansdowne Oil & Gas, initiated an “arbitration process under the Energy Charter Treaty [ECT]”. This gave the environment minister three months to engage in discussions, with a view to settling the dispute and, failing settlement, the company had the right to go to arbitration.